Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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As Germany and France Come Apart, So Too Will the EU

2019-01-17

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2019-01-17

German Unification 1865-1871
If we follow the logic and evidence presented in these seven points, we are forced to conclude that the fractures in France, Germany and the EU are widening by the day. When is a nation-state no longer a functional state? It's an interesting question to ask of the European nation-states trapped in the devolving European Union.

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The future of work: is your job safe? | The Economist

2019-01-16

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The world of work will be radically different in the future. From hyper-surveillance of staff to digital nomadism to robots taking jobs—how, where and why we work is changing beyond all recognition. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy This is the workforce of the future. Technology is transforming the world of …

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Insight Japan

2019-01-16

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2019-01-16

Japan CPI Food, Jan 2013 - 2019
As I wrote yesterday, “In the West, consumer prices overall are pushed around by oil. In the East, by food.” In neither case is inflation buoyed by “money printing.” Central banks both West and East are doing things, of course, but none of them amount to increasing the effective supply of money. Failure of inflation, more so economy, the predictable cost.

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What makes elite athletes thrive or dive under pressure? | The Economist

2019-01-15

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Psychology is an increasingly important part of elite sport. Winning at the highest levels can depend as much on peak-fitness of the mind as the body. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Sponsored by DXC Technology. for top-level sports people it’s not just skill and athleticism they count. So often, it’s …

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The Decline and Fall of the European Union

2019-01-15

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2019-01-15

Greek Debt
This exhaustion of the neocolonial-neofeudal model was inevitable, and as a result, so too is the decline and fall of the European integration/exploitation project. That a single currency, the euro, would fracture rather than unite Europe was understood long before the euro's introduction as legal tender on January 1, 2002. 

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Where Will You Be Seated at the Banquet of Consequences?

2019-01-14

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2019-01-14

Ownership Society
To get a good seat at the banquet of consequences, the owner of capital has to shift his/her capital into scarce forms for which there is demand. The Banquet of Consequences is being laid out, and so the question is: where will you be seated? The answer depends on two dynamics I've mentioned many times: what types of capital you own and the asymmetries of our economy.

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Rate of Change

2019-01-13

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2019-01-13

Labor Curves
We’ve got to change our ornithological nomenclature. Hawks become doves because they are chickens underneath. Doves became hawks for reasons they don’t really understand. A fingers-crossed policy isn’t a robust one, so there really was no reason to expect the economy to be that way.

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CHARLES HUGH SMITH: What We Want To Do Is Make Society Rich | Global Economic

2019-01-12

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☀☀☀☀ Please Click Below to SUBSCRIBE for More “Global Economic” Videos https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCV-UIza2EiL0s3Pd5GmawDw Thanks for watching!!! ******************************************* Please help me to reach 1k subscribers. Thanks you very much!!!

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2019 Outlook

2019-01-12

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2019-01-12

A discussion of the outlook for 2019 in the markets and the economy by Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun and the Head of Alhambra Global Investment Research Jeff Snider.

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Will China dominate science? | The Economist

2019-01-11

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China is fast becoming a world leader in science, but should the world worry? Our deputy editor, Ed Carr, examines the impact of China’s scientific expansion. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: https://econ.st/2o8kfOB Check out The …

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…And Get Bigger

2019-01-11

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2019-01-11

Germany Industrial Production, Jan 2007 - 2019
Just as there is gradation for positive numbers, there is color to negative ones, too. On the plus side, consistently small increments marked by the infrequent jump is never to be associated with a healthy economy let alone one that is booming. A truly booming economy is one in which the small positive numbers are rare. The recovery phase preceding the boom takes that to an extreme.

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The Recession Will Be Unevenly Distributed

2019-01-11

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2019-01-11

The Rising Wedge Model of Breakdown
Those households, enterprises and organizations that have no debt, a very low cost basis and a highly flexible, adaptable structure will survive and even prosper. The coming recession will be unevenly distributed, meaning that it will devastate many while leaving others relatively untouched. A few will actually do better in the recession than they did in the so-called "recovery."

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What will people wear in the future? | The Economist

2019-01-10

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Innovation in fashion is sparking radical change. In the future clothes could be computers, made with materials designed and grown in a lab. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy A new wave of innovation is fuelling a radical change in fashion. Wearable technology, data, automation and lab-grown materials will have a …

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You Know It’s Coming

2019-01-10

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2019-01-10

Benchmark 10-year UST 2013-2016
After a horrible December and a rough start to the year, as if manna from Heaven the clouds parted and everything seemed good again. Not 2019 this was early February 2015. If there was a birth date for Janet Yellen’s “transitory” canard it surely came within this window. It didn’t matter that currencies had crashed and oil, too, or that central banks had been drawn into the fray in very unexpected ways.

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If You’ve Lost The ISM…

2019-01-09

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2019-01-09

US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Markit Composite PMI, Jan 2013 - 2019
These transition periods are often just this sort of whirlwind. One day the economy looks awful, the next impervious to any downside. Today, it has been the latter with the BLS providing the warm comfort of headline payrolls. For now, it won’t matter how hollow.

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How democratic is your country? | The Economist

2019-01-08

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Democracy is in danger around the world. Perhaps for this reason, political engagement is at an all-time high. Robert Guest, our foreign editor, examines this year’s Democracy Index, compiled by the Economist Intelligence Unit. Find out where your country ranks on the Democracy Index: http://www.eiu.com/topic/democracy-index https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/01/08/the-retreat-of-global-democracy-stopped-in-2018 Click here to...

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Living In The Present

2019-01-08

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2019-01-08

10-Year US Treasury Yield 2016-2018
It’s that time of year again, time to cast the runes, consult the iChing, shake the Magic Eight Ball and read the tea leaves. What will happen in 2019? Will it be as bad as 2018 when positive returns were hard to come by, as rare as affordable health care or Miami Dolphin playoff games? Will China’s economy succumb to the pressure of US tariffs and make a deal?

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Could Stocks Rally Even as Parts of the Economy Are Recessionary?

2019-01-07

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2019-01-07

S&P 500 Large Cap Index 2017-2018
It's not yet clear that the stock market swoon is predictive or merely a panic attack triggered by a loss of meds. We contrarians can't help it: when the herd is bullish, we start looking for a reversal. When the herd turns bearish, we also start looking for a reversal.

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More Unmixed Signals

2019-01-06

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2019-01-06

China PMI 2010-2018
China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reports that the country’s official manufacturing PMI in December 2018 dropped below 50 for the first time since the summer of 2016. Many if not most associate a number in the 40’s with contraction. While that may or not be the case, what’s more important is the quite well-established direction.

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Mispriced Delusion

2019-01-05

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2019-01-05

Money Markets Equivalents 2009-2018
Recency bias is one thing. Back in late 2006/early 2007 when the eurodollar futures curve inverted, for example, it was a textbook case of mass delusion. All the schoolbooks and Economics classes had said that it couldn’t happen; not that it wasn’t likely, it wasn’t even a possibility. A full-scale financial meltdown was at the time literally inconceivable in orthodox thinking.

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