Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Hall of Mirrors, Where’d The Labor Shortage Go?

2019-01-20

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2019-01-20

Federal Reserve Beige Book 2010-2019
Today was supposed to see the release of the Census Bureau’s retail trade report, a key data set pertaining to the (alarming) state of American consumers, therefore workers by extension (income). With the federal government in partial shutdown, those numbers will be delayed until further notice. In their place we will have to manage with something like the Federal Reserves’ Beige Book.

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How can Britain fix Brexit? | The Economist

2019-01-19

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Parliament’s rejection of Theresa May’s Brexit plan has created a democratic mess. The Economist’s Britain editor, Tom Wainwright, explains how the country got into this muddle, and the solution for getting out. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Check out The Economist’s full video …

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That’s A Big Minus

2019-01-19

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2019-01-19

Europe Industrial Production 2013-2018
Goods require money to finance both their production as well as their movements. They need oil and energy for the same reasons. If oil and money markets were drastically awful for a few months before December, and then purely chaotic during December, Mario Draghi of all people should’ve been paying attention.

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Spreading Sour Not Soar

2019-01-18

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2019-01-18

Sweden / Japan
We are starting to get a better sense of what happened to turn everything so drastically in December. Not that we hadn’t suspected while it was all taking place, but more and more in January the economic data for the last couple months of 2018 backs up the market action. These were no speculators looking to break Jay Powell, probing for weakness in Mario Draghi’s resolve.

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Charles Hugh Smith JAN 18, 2019 We Already Passed The Point Of No Return Collapse is Inevitable !

2019-01-18

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Thank You

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As Germany and France Come Apart, So Too Will the EU

2019-01-17

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2019-01-17

German Unification 1865-1871
If we follow the logic and evidence presented in these seven points, we are forced to conclude that the fractures in France, Germany and the EU are widening by the day. When is a nation-state no longer a functional state? It's an interesting question to ask of the European nation-states trapped in the devolving European Union.

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The future of work: is your job safe? | The Economist

2019-01-16

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The world of work will be radically different in the future. From hyper-surveillance of staff to digital nomadism to robots taking jobs—how, where and why we work is changing beyond all recognition. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy This is the workforce of the future. Technology is transforming the world of …

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Insight Japan

2019-01-16

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2019-01-16

Japan CPI Food, Jan 2013 - 2019
As I wrote yesterday, “In the West, consumer prices overall are pushed around by oil. In the East, by food.” In neither case is inflation buoyed by “money printing.” Central banks both West and East are doing things, of course, but none of them amount to increasing the effective supply of money. Failure of inflation, more so economy, the predictable cost.

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What makes elite athletes thrive or dive under pressure? | The Economist

2019-01-15

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Psychology is an increasingly important part of elite sport. Winning at the highest levels can depend as much on peak-fitness of the mind as the body. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Sponsored by DXC Technology. for top-level sports people it’s not just skill and athleticism they count. So often, it’s …

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The Decline and Fall of the European Union

2019-01-15

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2019-01-15

Greek Debt
This exhaustion of the neocolonial-neofeudal model was inevitable, and as a result, so too is the decline and fall of the European integration/exploitation project. That a single currency, the euro, would fracture rather than unite Europe was understood long before the euro's introduction as legal tender on January 1, 2002. 

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Where Will You Be Seated at the Banquet of Consequences?

2019-01-14

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2019-01-14

Ownership Society
To get a good seat at the banquet of consequences, the owner of capital has to shift his/her capital into scarce forms for which there is demand. The Banquet of Consequences is being laid out, and so the question is: where will you be seated? The answer depends on two dynamics I've mentioned many times: what types of capital you own and the asymmetries of our economy.

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Rate of Change

2019-01-13

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2019-01-13

Labor Curves
We’ve got to change our ornithological nomenclature. Hawks become doves because they are chickens underneath. Doves became hawks for reasons they don’t really understand. A fingers-crossed policy isn’t a robust one, so there really was no reason to expect the economy to be that way.

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CHARLES HUGH SMITH: What We Want To Do Is Make Society Rich | Global Economic

2019-01-12

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☀☀☀☀ Please Click Below to SUBSCRIBE for More “Global Economic” Videos https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCV-UIza2EiL0s3Pd5GmawDw Thanks for watching!!! ******************************************* Please help me to reach 1k subscribers. Thanks you very much!!!

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2019 Outlook

2019-01-12

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2019-01-12

A discussion of the outlook for 2019 in the markets and the economy by Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun and the Head of Alhambra Global Investment Research Jeff Snider.

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Will China dominate science? | The Economist

2019-01-11

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China is fast becoming a world leader in science, but should the world worry? Our deputy editor, Ed Carr, examines the impact of China’s scientific expansion. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: https://econ.st/2o8kfOB Check out The …

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…And Get Bigger

2019-01-11

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2019-01-11

Germany Industrial Production, Jan 2007 - 2019
Just as there is gradation for positive numbers, there is color to negative ones, too. On the plus side, consistently small increments marked by the infrequent jump is never to be associated with a healthy economy let alone one that is booming. A truly booming economy is one in which the small positive numbers are rare. The recovery phase preceding the boom takes that to an extreme.

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The Recession Will Be Unevenly Distributed

2019-01-11

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2019-01-11

The Rising Wedge Model of Breakdown
Those households, enterprises and organizations that have no debt, a very low cost basis and a highly flexible, adaptable structure will survive and even prosper. The coming recession will be unevenly distributed, meaning that it will devastate many while leaving others relatively untouched. A few will actually do better in the recession than they did in the so-called "recovery."

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What will people wear in the future? | The Economist

2019-01-10

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Innovation in fashion is sparking radical change. In the future clothes could be computers, made with materials designed and grown in a lab. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy A new wave of innovation is fuelling a radical change in fashion. Wearable technology, data, automation and lab-grown materials will have a …

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You Know It’s Coming

2019-01-10

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2019-01-10

Benchmark 10-year UST 2013-2016
After a horrible December and a rough start to the year, as if manna from Heaven the clouds parted and everything seemed good again. Not 2019 this was early February 2015. If there was a birth date for Janet Yellen’s “transitory” canard it surely came within this window. It didn’t matter that currencies had crashed and oil, too, or that central banks had been drawn into the fray in very unexpected ways.

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If You’ve Lost The ISM…

2019-01-09

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2019-01-09

US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Markit Composite PMI, Jan 2013 - 2019
These transition periods are often just this sort of whirlwind. One day the economy looks awful, the next impervious to any downside. Today, it has been the latter with the BLS providing the warm comfort of headline payrolls. For now, it won’t matter how hollow.

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