Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Slump, Downturn, Recession; All Add Up To Sideways

2019-03-22

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2019-03-22

Germany ZEW Financial Market Survey 2007-2019
According to Germany’s Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung, or ZEW, the slump in the country’s economy has now reached its fourteenth month. The institute’s sentiment index has improved in the last two, but only slightly. As of the latest calculation released today, it stands at -3.6.

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The Real End of the Bond Market

2019-03-22

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2019-03-22

US Treasury Yield Curve
These things are actually quite related, though I understand how it might not appear to be that way at first. As noted earlier today, the Fed (yet again) proves it has no idea how global money markets work. They can’t even get federal funds right after two technical adjustments to IOER (the joke).

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Why calories are a con | The Economist

2019-03-21

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Calorie-counting has been central to people’s understanding of weight loss for over a century. Given that the great majority of diets fail—could the calorie be one of the biggest delusions in dietary history? Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy For decades people who want to control their weight have been told …

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While the Nation Fragments Socially, the Financial Aristocracy Rules Unimpeded

2019-03-21

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2019-03-21

Soaring Income Inequality
If there is one central irony in American history, it is this: the citizenry that broke free of the chains of British Monarchy, the citizenry that reckoned everyone was equal before the law, the citizenry that vowed never to be ruled by an aristocracy that controlled the government and finance as a means of self-enrichment, is now so distracted by social fragmentation that the citizenry is blind to their servitude to a new and formidably informal...

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The World Economy’s Industrial Downswing

2019-03-20

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2019-03-20

Europe Industrial Production, 2013-2019
As economic data for 2019 comes in, the numbers continue to suggest more slowing especially in the goods economy. Perhaps what happened during that October-December window was a soft patch. Even if that was the case, we should still expect second and third order effects to follow along from it.

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Are lab-grown diamonds the future? | The Economist

2019-03-19

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Scientists now have the technology to make synthetic diamonds in a laboratory. They are far cheaper than mined stones, but can they replace the real thing? Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy It’s the biggest disrupter the diamond industry has faced. Machines are now growing diamonds in a matter of weeks …

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Chart(s) of the Week: Reviewing Curve Warnings

2019-03-19

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2019-03-19

Eurodollar Futures Curve 2018
Quick review: stocks hit a bit of a rough patch right during the height of inflation hysteria. At the end of January 2018, just as the US unemployment rate had finally achieved the very center of attention, global markets were rocked by instability. Unexpectedly, of course.

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What’s the point of NATO? | The Economist

2019-03-18

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NATO was set up in 1949 to counter the Soviet threat. Its North American and European members must continue to change the alliance if it is to remain relevant in the 21st century. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Check out The Economist’s full …

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The Coming Crisis the Fed Can’t Fix: Credit Exhaustion

2019-03-18

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2019-03-18

All Sectors, Debt Securities and Loans, Liability Level 1960 - 2018
Having fixed the liquidity crisis of 2008-09 and kept a perversely unequal "recovery" staggering forward for a decade, central banks now believe there is no crisis they can't defeat: Liquidity crisis? Flood the global financial system with liquidity. Interest rates above zero? Create trillions out of thin air and use the "free money" to buy bonds. Mortgage and housing markets shaky?

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Monthly Macro Chart Review – March (VIDEO)

2019-03-17

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2019-03-17

Alhambra CEO discusses the most important economic reports from the past month.

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Why St Patrick’s Day went global | The Economist

2019-03-16

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St Patrick’s Day is celebrated by 149m people in America alone. How did Ireland’s saint’s day become a global event? Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Check out The Economist’s full video catalogue: http://econ.st/20IehQk Like The Economist on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TheEconomist/ Follow The Economist on …...

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No Sign of Stimulus, Or Global Growth, China’s Economy Sunk By (euro)Dollar

2019-03-16

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2019-03-16

China Industrial Production 1999-2019
Najib Tun Razak was elected as Malaysia’s Prime Minister in early 2009. Taking office that April amid global turmoil and chaos, Najib’s first official visit was to Beijing in early June. His father, also Malaysia’s Prime Minister, had been the first among Asian nations to open formal diplomatic relations with China thirty-five years before.

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What Sort of “Democracy” Do We Have If Everyone’s Goal Is Maximizing Their Government Swag?

2019-03-15

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2019-03-15

S-Curve of Centralization
A democratic republic is a government in which power flows from citizens to their elected representatives. The American revolutionaries did not make a big distinction between republic and democracy, for in the context of the late 1700s, the dominant political structure was monarchy, and democracy meant the people have the final say via elections.

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How States/Empires Collapse in Four Easy Steps

2019-03-14

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2019-03-14

S-Curve of Expansion, Maturation, Stagnation and Collapse
There is a grand, majestic tragedy in the inevitable collapse of once-thriving states and empires: it all seemed so permanent at its peak, so godlike in its power, and then slowly but surely, too many grandiose, unrealistic promises were made to too many elites and constituencies, and then as growth decays to stagnation, the only way to maintain the status quo is to appear to meet all the promises by creating money out of thin air, i.e. debauching...

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Downturn Rising, No ‘Glitch’ In Retail Sales

2019-03-13

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2019-03-13

U.S. Retail Sales, Jun 2011 - Dec 2018
You just don’t see $4 billion monthly retail sales revisions, in either direction. Advance estimates are changed all the time, each monthly figure will be recalculated twice after its initial release. Typically, though, the subsequent revisions are minor rarely amounting to a billion. Four times that?

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Charles Hugh Smith The World is Awash in Debt and Can’t Raise Interest Rates & Trump May Not Run

2019-03-12

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If interest rates rise to normal historical levels then this will collapse the everything bubble. So the central banks will try to lower interest rates into negative territory to try and maintain their ability to maintain debt servicing which are taking more and more of the pie of what’s received in tax revenues. For example …

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Is this the future of health? | The Economist

2019-03-12

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Artificial intelligence is already shaping the world, from driverless cars to dating. But according to Dr Eric Topol, a pioneer in digital medicine, perhaps its greatest impact will be on people’s health. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Check out The Economist’s full video …

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Downturn Rising, German Industry

2019-03-12

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2019-03-12

US Treasury Yield Curve, Aug 2007 - Jan 2019
You know things have really changed when Economists start revising their statements more than the data. What’s going on in the global economy has quickly reached a critical stage. This represents a big shift in expectations, a really big one, especially in the mainstream where the words “strong” and “boom” couldn’t have been used any more than they were.

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Here’s The Problem: The Pie Is Shrinking

2019-03-12

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2019-03-12

S-curve of Rapid Expansion, Stagnation and Decline
Scrape away the churn and distraction and the problem is simple: the pie of prosperity is shrinking, and the "fixes" are failing. The status quo arrangement is based on the endless expansion of "growth" and debt, which is the monetary fuel of more, more, more of everything: money, energy, resources, goods, services, jobs, wealth and income, all of which make up the elixir of prosperity.

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The Source of Killer Inflation: Services

2019-03-11

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2019-03-11

The soaring cost of services is driven by a number of factors. What will the future bring: fire (inflation) or ice (deflation)? The short answer: both, but in very different doses. Goods that are tradeable and exposed to technologically driven commodification will decline in price (deflation) while untradeable services that are difficult to commoditize will increase in price (inflation), generating a self-reinforcing feedback loop of wage-price...

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