Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Where The Global Squeeze Is Unmasked

2019-09-17

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2019-09-17

US Exports of Goods, NSA 1989-2019
Trade between Asia and Europe has dimmed considerably. We know that from the fact Germany and China are the two countries out of the majors struggling the most right now. As a consequence of the slowing, shipping companies have had to make adjustments to their fleet schedules over and above normal seasonal variances.

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‘People Will Lose Faith In Central Banks…’ w/ Charles Hugh Smith

2019-09-17

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Thanks for watching this interview, ‘People Will Lose Faith In Central Banks…’ w/ Charles Hugh Smith. Share your thoughts below. Don’t forget to click the ? & subscribe to the RTD channel for more informative content ?. Find out more about my guest Charles Hugh Smith here: https://www.oftwominds.com/ Join the new RTD Gold Team and …

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Stuck at A: Repo Chaos Isn’t Something New, It’s The Same Baseline

2019-09-17

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2019-09-17

Money Markets Equivalent, 2017-2019
Finally, finally the global bond market stopped going in a straight line. I write often how nothing ever does, but for almost three-quarters of a year the guts of the financial system seemed highly motivated to prove me wrong. Yields plummeted and eurodollar futures prices soared. It is only over the past few weeks that rates have backed up in what has been the first real selloff since last year.

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Dollar Mixed, Oil Spikes as Markets Digest Saudi Attack

2019-09-16

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2019-09-16

The weekend bombing of Saudi oil facilities continue to reverberate across global markets. The currencies of the oil producing nations are likely to outperform near-term. US rates continue to adjust ahead of the FOMC. UK Prime Minister Johnson is in Luxembourg today to meet with EC President Juncker. China reported weak August IP and retail sales.

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The Black Swan Is a Drone

2019-09-16

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2019-09-16

What was "possible" yesterday is now a low-cost proven capability, and the consequences are far from predictable. Predictably, the mainstream media is serving up heaping portions of reassurances that the drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities are no big deal and full production will resume shortly.

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What a Relief that the U.S. and Global Economies Are Booming

2019-09-16

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2019-09-16

Batic Dry Index, 2018-2019
Doing more of what's failed for ten years will finally fail spectacularly.. It was a huge relief to see the charts of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and the U.S. retail sector ETF (RTH): both have soared to the moon, signaling that both the U.S. and global economies are booming: the BDI is widely regarded as a proxy for global shipping, which is a proxy for global trade and economic activity.

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Dollar Soft as Risk Sentiment Stoked Ahead of US Retail Sales

2019-09-15

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2019-09-15

US-China relations appear to be thawing. Trading was volatile after the ECB decision; we are still dollar bulls. EM has benefitted from the shift in the global backdrop this week. The US data highlight is August retail sales. Vietnam cut rates 25 bp to 6.0%; Turkey reported July current account and IP.

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The Inevitable Bursting of Our Bubble Economy

2019-09-15

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2019-09-15

S&P 500 SPX, 2000-2018
All of America's bubbles will pop, and sooner rather than later. Financial bubbles manifest three dynamics: the one we're most familiar with is human greed, the desire to exploit a windfall and catch a work-free ride to riches. The second dynamic gets much less attention: financial manias arise when there is no other more productive, profitable use for capital, and these periods occur when there is an abundance of credit available to inflate the...

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Chester Williams: from racism to the Rugby World Cup final | The Economist

2019-09-14

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Chester Williams was the only black player in South Africa’s 1995 World Cup winning side. He died on September 6th 2019. Earlier this year he spoke to The Economist about his experience playing for the Springboks and growing up and playing under Apartheid rule

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Your Unofficial Europe QE Preview

2019-09-14

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2019-09-14

Eurodollar Futures Curve History, 2007-2019
The thing about R* is mostly that it doesn’t really make much sense when you stop and think about it; which you aren’t meant to do. It is a reaction to unanticipated reality, a world that has turned out very differently than it “should” have. Central bankers are our best and brightest, allegedly, they certainly feel that way about themselves, yet the evidence is clearly lacking.

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Turkey Monetary Policy Planting Seeds of Future Crisis

2019-09-14

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2019-09-14

Turkey central bank meets September 12 and is expected to cut rates 275 bp.  With Erdogan talking about single digit rates and inflation, it’s clear that rates are headed significantly lower.  At some point soon, we think the risk/reward for investing in Turkey will send investors fleeing for the exits.POLITICAL OUTLOOK President Erdogan sacked central bank Governor Murat Cetinkaya on July 6, ostensibly for not cutting rates quickly enough.

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Jeff Snider & Luke Gromen: Global U.S. Dollar Shortage Demystified

2019-09-13

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeff Snider and Luke Gromen to MacroVoices. They discuss the impact of changing Eurodollar markets, the global dollar liquidity shortage and the future changes in global reserve currencies and more.

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The Obligatory Europe QE Review

2019-09-13

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2019-09-13

Germany 10-year Bund Yield, 2008-2019
If Mario Draghi wanted to wow them, this wasn’t it. Maybe he couldn’t, handcuffed already by what seems to have been significant dissent in the ranks. And not just the Germans this time. Widespread dissatisfaction with what is now an idea whose time may have finally arrived.

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Dollar (In) Demand

2019-09-12

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2019-09-12

All China's Dollars, 2016-2019
The last time was bad, no getting around it. From the end of 2014 until the first months of 2016, the Chinese economy was in a perilous state. Dramatic weakness had emerged which had seemed impossible to reconcile with conventions about the country. Committed to growth over everything, and I mean everything, China was the one country the world thought it could count on for being immune to the widespread economic sickness.

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A Bigger Boat

2019-09-11

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2019-09-11

Europe Industrial Production, 2013-2019
For every action there is a reaction. Not only is that Sir Isaac Newton’s third law, it’s also a statement about human nature. Unlike physics where causes and effects are near simultaneous, there is a time component to how we interact. In official capacities, even more so.

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The Era Of Central Banks Pushing The Economy Forward Is Ending w/ Charles Hugh Smith

2019-09-10

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Thanks for watching this Silver Doctors Interview. Share your thoughts below and make sure to click the subscribe button to join the Silver Doctors Community. Today’s guest, Charles Hugh Smith, shares his thoughts on how capitalism as we have know it is being challenge. During our discussion he shares his thoughts on how monetary policy …

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How lynching still affects American politics | The Economist

2019-09-10

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*This film contains disturbing images* Between 1877 and 1950 more than 4,000 African-Americans were lynched. Their deaths are still having an impact on voting patterns today. Read more here: https://econ.st/31cCxQq Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Many people know about the terror of lynchings. But one of the reasons why blacks …

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Is The Negativity Overdone?

2019-09-10

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2019-09-10

China Exports, 2006-2019
Give stimulus a chance, that’s the theme being set up for this week. After relentless buying across global bond markets distorting curves, upsetting politicians and the public alike, central bankers have responded en masse. There were more rate cuts around the world in August than there had been at any point since 2009.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2019-09-09

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2019-09-09

Despite some positive developments last week, we think the three key issues for risk assets have not been resolved yet.  Hong Kong protests continue, while reports suggest the US and China remain far apart.  Even Brexit has likely been given only a three month reprieve.  We remain negative on EM until these key issues have been ultimately resolved.

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These Are Not Signs of a Healthy Market

2019-09-08

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2019-09-08

SPX Large Cap, April - August 2019
The implicit narrative of the latest rally in stocks is that this is just another normal rally in the ongoing 10-year long Bull market. Nice, but do these three charts look "normal" to you? Let's take a quick glance at a daily chart of the S&P 500 (SPX), a weekly chart of TLT, the exchange-traded fund of the US Treasury 20-year bond, and silver.

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