Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

China Data: Something New, or Just The Latest Scheduled Acceleration?

2019-12-18

by

2019-12-18

China Retail Sales, 2010-2019
The Chinese government was serious about imposing pollution controls on its vast stock of automobiles. The largest market in the world for cars and trucks, the net result of China’s “miracle” years of eurodollar-financed modernization, for the Chinese people living in its huge cities the non-economic costs are, unlike the air, immediately clear each and every day.

Read More »

A Repo Deluge…of Necessary Data

2019-12-18

by

2019-12-18

US Depository Institutions, 2008-2019
Just in time for more discussions about repo, the Federal Reserve delivers. Not in terms of the repo market, mind you, despite what you hear bandied about in the financial media the Fed doesn’t actually go there. Its repo operations are more RINO’s – repo in name only. No, what the US central bank actually contributes is more helpful data.

Read More »

If The Best Case For Consumer Christmas Is That It Started Off In The Wrong Month…

2019-12-17

by

2019-12-17

US Retail Sales Stagnation, 1992-2012
Gone are the days when Black Friday dominated the retail calendar. While it used to be a somewhat fun way to kick off the holiday shopping season, it had morphed into something else entirely in later years. Scenes of angry shoppers smashing each other over the few big deals stores would truly offer, internet clips of crying children watching in horror as their parents transformed their local Walmart into Thunderdome.

Read More »

The “Trade Deal”: A Pathetic Parody, Credibility Squandered

2019-12-17

by

2019-12-17

China Share of World Exports, 2000-2018
Anyone who thinks this bogus "deal" has resolved any of the issues or uncertainties deserves to be fired immediately. Here's a late-night TV parody of a trade deal: The agreement won't be signed by both parties, though each might sign their own version of it, and the terms of the deal will never ever be revealed to the public, which includes everyone doing any business in the nations doing the "deal."

Read More »

EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2019-12-16

by

2019-12-16

Risk assets such as EM got a big boost last week, as tail risks from a hard Brexit and the US-China trade war have clearly ebbed. Still, the initial lack of details on the Phase One deal as well as uncertainty regarding the next phases have left the markets a bit jittery and nervous. Hopefully, this week may bring some further clarity and the good news is that the December 15 tariffs have been canceled.

Read More »

A “Market” That Needs $1 Trillion in Panic-Money-Printing by the Fed to Stave Off Implosion Is Not a Market

2019-12-16

by

2019-12-16

Assets: Other: Repurchase Agreements: Wednesday Level, 2005-2015
It was all fun and games enriching the super-wealthy but now the karmic cost of the Fed's manipulation and propaganda is about to come due. A "market" that needs $1 trillion in panic-money-printing by the Fed to stave off a karmic-overdue implosion is not a market: a legitimate market enables price discovery. What is price discovery?

Read More »

Lagarde Channels Past Self As To Japan Going Global

2019-12-14

by

2019-12-14

Europe Industrial Production, 1993-2019
As France’s Finance Minister, Christine Lagarde objected strenuously to Ben Bernanke’s second act. Hinted at in August 2010, QE2 was finally unleashed in November to global condemnation. Where “trade wars” fill media pages today, “currency wars” did back then. The Americans were undertaking beggar-thy-neighbor policies to unfairly weaken the dollar.

Read More »

Risk Assets Rally as Major Tail Risks Ease

2019-12-13

by

2019-12-13

The biggest tail risks impacting markets this year have cleared up; risk assets are rallying, while safe haven assets are selling off. During the North American session, US November retail sales will be reported. Russia central bank cut rates 25 bp to 6.25%, as expected.

Read More »

UK Election: live Q&A with The Economist

2019-12-13

by

Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party won the election by a landslide. What will this victory mean? Join Zanny Minton Beddoes, our Editor-in-Chief, for a live Q&A. Ask any questions you might have for her in the chatbox. Our hosts: Zanny Minton Beddoes, Editor-in-Chief Adrian Wooldridge, Political editor and Bagehot columnist Sarah Collinson, Video journalist Find The …

Read More »

The FOMC Channels China’s Xi As To Japan Going Global

2019-12-13

by

2019-12-13

Economic Projections FOMC, 2013-2016
The massive dollar eruption in the middle of 2014 altered everything. We’ve talked quite a lot about what Euro$ #3 did to China; it sent that economy into a dive from which it wouldn’t escape. And in doing so convinced the Chinese leadership to give growth one more try before changing the game entirely once stimulus inevitably failed.

Read More »

Why Britain’s election won’t end the political chaos | The Economist

2019-12-12

by

Britons are heading to the polls for the fourth time in five years. How has Britain gone from having one of the most stable political systems in the world to being derided as a political basket-case—and why won’t the chaos end anytime soon? Read more here: https://econ.st/35fzgSL Click here to subscribe to The Economist on …

Read More »

Why “This Sucker Is Going Down”

2019-12-12

by

2019-12-12

Once the contagion starts spreading, loose money won't put the fires out. As the nation's political and economic leaders struggled to contain the 2008 financial meltdown, President George W. Bush famously summed the situation up: "If money doesn't loosen up, this sucker will go down."Eleven years into the loose money recovery, this sucker is finally going down for reasons that have little to do with tight money and everything to do with the...

Read More »

If Trade Wars Couldn’t, Might Pig Wars Change Xi’s Mind?

2019-12-12

by

2019-12-12

China Price Stability, 1996-2019
Forget about trade wars, or even the eurodollar’s ever-present squeeze on China’s monetary system. For the Communist Chinese government, its first priority has been changed by unforeseen circumstances. At the worst possible time, food prices are skyrocketing. A country’s population will sit still for a great many injustices. From economic decay to corruption and rising authoritarianism, the line between back alley grumbling and open rebellion is...

Read More »

Disposable (Employment) Figures

2019-12-11

by

2019-12-11

Establishment Survey; Blowout Payrolls, 2014-2019
If last month’s payroll report was declared to be strong at +128k, then what would that make this month’s +266k? Epic? Heroic? The superlatives are flying around today, as you should expect. This Payroll Friday actually fits the times. It wasn’t great, they never really are nowadays (when you adjust for population and participation), but it was a good one nonetheless.

Read More »

The BIS Misses An Opportunity To Get Consistent With The Facts

2019-12-11

by

2019-12-11

Net lending through repos and federal funds by size group
Much has been made about the repo market since mid-September. Much continues to be made about it. The question is why. It is now near the middle of December and repo looks dicey despite repo operations and a not-QE small-scale asset purchase intended to increase the level of bank reserves. Always the focus on “funds” which may be available. It was John Adams who took on the task of defending several British soldiers on trial for the Boston...

Read More »

You Will Never Bring It Back Up If You Have No Idea Why It Falls Down And Stays Down

2019-12-10

by

2019-12-10

Friedman's Plucking Model of Trend-cycle Analysis
It wasn’t actually Keynes who coined the term “pump priming”, though he became famous largely for advocating for it. Instead, it was Herbert Hoover, of all people, who began using it to describe (or try to) his Reconstruction Finance Corporation. Hardly the do-nothing Roosevelt accused Hoover of being, as President, FDR’s predecessor was the most aggressive in American history to that point, economically speaking.

Read More »

The Taxonomy of Collapse

2019-12-10

by

2019-12-10

The Lifecycle of States and Empires: Expansion & Collapse
The higher up the wealth-power pyramid the observer is, the more prone they are to a magical-thinking belief that the empire is forever, even as it is crumbling around them. How great nations and empires arise, mature, decay and collapse has long been of interest for a self-evident reason: if we can discern a template or process, we can predict when the great nations and empires of today will slide into the dustbin of history.

Read More »

All-Stars #83 Jeff Snider: Objective analysis of global USD liquidity yields a different story…

2019-12-09

by

All-Stars #83 Jeff Snider: Objective analysis of global USD liquidity yields a different story than financial media are telling Please visit our website www.macrovoices.com to register your free account to gain access to supporting materials.

Read More »

EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2019-12-09

by

2019-12-09

EM has had a good month so far as market optimism on a Phase One trade deal remains high. Yet November trade data due out this week should show that until that deal is finalized, the outlook for EM remains weak.  Deadline for the next round of US tariffs is December 15 and so talks this week are crucial. 

Read More »

European Economy: A Time Recession

2019-12-08

by

2019-12-08

European Economy, 2016-2019
Eurostat confirmed earlier today that Europe has so far avoided recession. At least, it hasn’t experienced what Economists call a cyclical peak. During the third quarter of 2019, Real GDP expanded by a thoroughly unimpressive +0.235% (Q/Q). This was a slight acceleration from a revised +0.185% the quarter before.

Read More »