Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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How modern families increase social inequality | The Economist

2019-11-18

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Modern families with two working adults are richer than those with a single breadwinner, and can afford to take a different approach to parenting. This is exacerbating inequality between rich and poor families. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy The family has always been a central building block of society. But …

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2019-11-18

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2019-11-18

EM FX was mostly weaker last week due to doubts about a Phase One trade deal between the US and China. Those talks continue this week and while we expect a deal to be struck, there is likely to be a lot of last minute posturing that will likely keep markets volatile over the short-run. In the meantime, investors need to beware of idiosyncratic country risk within EM.

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QE’s and Rate Cuts: Two Very Different Sets of Sentiment Drawn From Them

2019-11-17

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2019-11-17

IFO World Economic Climate Index, 2007-2019
The stock market’s dichotomy grows ever wider. On the one side, record high prices which are being set by the expectations of a trade deal plus renewed worldwide “stimulus.” Sure, officials everywhere were late to see the downturn coming, but they’ve since woken up and went to work.

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Emerging Market Risk Map

2019-11-15

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2019-11-15

BBH Risk MingMap
With year-end upon us, we review some of the key risks to EM assets and how we think they progress from here. In short, the two most significant downside risks would be a decisive improvement in Elizabeth Warren’s polling figures and an upset in the US-China trade negotiations.

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America v China: why the trade war won’t end soon | The Economist

2019-11-14

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America and China are edging closer to signing a deal in the trade war. But that won’t mark the end—the issues at the heart of the conflict will be very difficult to resolve. Read more here: https://econ.st/2qQItl6 Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy The world’s leading superpowers are locking horns. Over …

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Stock Market Cheerleading: Why Do We Celebrate the Super-Rich Getting Richer?

2019-11-14

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2019-11-14

It's not too difficult to predict a political rebellion against the machinery of soaring wealth and income inequality. The one constant across the media-political spectrum is an unblinking focus on the stock market as a barometer of the national economy: every major media outlet from the New York Times to Fox News prominently displays stock market action, and TV news anchors' expressions reflect the media's emotional promotion of the market as the...

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Now That We’ve Incentivized Sociopaths–Guess What Happens Next

2019-11-13

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2019-11-13

As long as central banks create and distribute trillions in conscience-free credit to conscience-free financiers and corporations, the incentives for sociopathy only increase. "Sociopath" is a word we now encounter regularly in the mainstream media, but what does it mean? Here is a list of 16 traits, many of which are visible in lionized corporate and political leaders and entrepreneurs.

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Is America right to fear Huawei? | The Economist

2019-11-12

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America worries that Huawei, China’s telecoms giant, spies on behalf of its government and threatens Western interests. Such concerns are not just about America’s security, but also its insecurity. Read more here: https://econ.st/2O9kgyc Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Rarely does a country go to war with a private company. But …

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Jeff Snider: “Global Growth Slowing & The U.S. Dollar Liquidity Shortage” (Hedgeye Investing Summit)

2019-11-12

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***This webcast originally aired live at the Hedgeye Investing Summit on Hedgeye.com on October 15, 2019*** Get access to Hedgeye's world-class investing research here: https://hedgeye.com/research

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For Labor And Recession, The Bad One

2019-11-12

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2019-11-12

Nonfarm Business Sector: Unit Labor Costs 1983-2019
There’s a couple of different ways that Unit Labor Costs can rise. Or even surge. The first is the good way, the one we all want to see because it is consistent with the idea of an economy that is actually booming. If workers have become truly scarce as macro forces sustain actual growth such that all labor market slack is absorbed, then businesses have to compete for them bidding up the price of marginal labor.

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The Real Boom Potential

2019-11-12

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2019-11-12

China Exports, 1998-2019
For the last five years Larry Summers has called it secular stagnation. It’s the right general idea as far as the result, if totally wrong as to its cause. Alvin Hansen, who first coined the term and thought up the thesis in the thirties, was thoroughly disproved by the fifties. Some, perhaps many Economists today believe it was WWII which actually did the disproving.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2019-11-11

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2019-11-11

EM was mostly lower last week, as doubts crept in about the recent trade optimism. Some events also served as reminders of idiosyncratic EM risk that can’t be overlooked, such as downgrade risks (South Africa), failed oil auctions (Brazil), and violent protests (CLP). EM may remain on its back foot until we get further clarity on the US-China talks, but we remain confident in our call that a deal will be struck soon that lower existing tariffs. 

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Charles Hugh Smith: FINANCIAL APOCALYPSE – REAL ESTATE PLUNGING – GREAT DEPRESSION 2.0

2019-11-10

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Contact advertising: Would you like to place ads on my youtube channel? Skype: akira10k Email: [email protected] #Financial News #Silver News #Gold #Bix Weir #RoadToRoota #Kyle Bass #Realist News #Greg Mannarino #Rob Kirby #Reluctant Preppers #The Next Newss #Maneco64 #Mike Maloney #Gold Silver #Eric Sprott #Jim Rickards #David Morgan #Peter Schiff #Max Keiser #Robert Kiyosaki #SilverDoctors …

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Red Flags Over Labor

2019-11-10

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2019-11-10

Establishment Survey; Payrolls 2010-2019
Better-than-expected is the new strong. Even I’m amazed at the satisfaction being taken with October’s payroll numbers. While you never focus too much on one monthly estimate, this time it might be time to do so. But not for those other reasons. Sure, GM caused some disruption and the Census is winding down, both putting everyone on edge. The whisper numbers were low double digits, maybe even a negative headline estimate.

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A Perfect Example of the Euro$ Squeeze

2019-11-10

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2019-11-10

Europe Industrial Production, 2007-2019
Germany’s vast industrial sector continued in the tank in September. According to new estimates from deStatis, that country’s government agency responsible for maintaining economic data, Industrial Production dropped by another 4% year-over-year during the month of September 2019. It was the fifth consecutive monthly decline at around that alarming rate.

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How to be an activist | The Economist

2019-11-09

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From climate strikes to Extinction Rebellion, activism is gaining momentum around the world. At The Economist’s Open Future Forum we spoke to three campaigners with different takes on how to be an activist today. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Activism today can take many different forms. Sokeel Park works with …

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Still Stuck In Between

2019-11-09

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2019-11-09

IHS Markit U.S. Manufacturing, 2012-2019
There wasn’t much by way of the ISM’s Manufacturing PMI to allay fears of recession. Much like the payroll numbers, an uncolored analysis of them, anyway, there was far more bad than good. For the month of October 2019, the index rose slightly from September’s decade low. At 48.3, it was up just half a point last month from the month prior

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The Sudden Need For A Trade Deal

2019-11-09

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2019-11-09

US Imports of Goods from China, NSA 1989-2019
Talk of trade deals is everywhere. Markets can’t get enough of it, even the here-to-fore pessimistic bond complex. Rates have backed up as a few whispers of BOND ROUT!!! reappear from their one-year slumber. If Trump broke the global economy, then his trade deal fixes it. There’s another way of looking at it, though. Why did the President go spoiling for trouble with China in 2018?

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From Friends to Nemeses: JO and Jay

2019-11-08

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2019-11-08

JOLTS - Job Openings, SA 2017-2019
It was one of the first major speeches of his tenure. Speaking to the Economic Club of Chicago in April 2018, newly crowned Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was full of optimism. At that time, however, optimism was being framed as some sort of bad thing. This was the height of inflation hysteria, where any sort of official upgrade to the economic condition was taken as further “hawkishness.”

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You Have To Try Really Hard Not To See It

2019-11-07

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2019-11-07

ISM Purchasing Managers Indexes, 2017-2019
In early September, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released figures for its non-manufacturing PMI that calmed nervous markets. A few weeks before anyone would start talking about repo, repo operations, and not-QE asset purchases, recession and slowdown fears were already prevalent.

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