Category Archive: 5.) Alhambra Investments

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Trying To Project The Goods Trade Cycle

2021-12-17

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2021-12-17

One quick note on yesterday’s retail sales estimates in the US for the month of November 2021. The increase for them was less than had been expected, but these were hardly awful by any rational measure.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Has Inflation Peaked?

2021-12-13

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2021-12-13

The headlines last Friday were ominous: Inflation Hits Highest Level in Nearly 40 Years. Inflation is Painfully High… Groceries and Christmas Presents Are Going To Cost More. Inflation is Soaring..

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A Global JOLT(s) In July

2021-12-09

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2021-12-09

The Bureau Labor Statistics reported today another huge month for Job Openings (JO). According to their methodology (which I still believe is flawed, but that’s not our focus this time), the level for October 2021 (JOLTS updates are for one month further back than payrolls) was a blistering 11.03 million.

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The Productive Use Of Awful Q3 Productivity Estimates Highlights Even More ‘Growth Scare’ Potential

2021-12-08

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2021-12-08

What was it that old Iowa cornfield movie said? If you build it, he will come. Well, this isn’t quite that, rather something more along the lines of: if you reopen it, some will come back to work. Not nearly as snappy, far less likely to sell anyone movie tickets, yet this other tagline might contribute much to our understanding of “growth scare” and its affect on the US labor market.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Discounting The Future

2021-12-07

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2021-12-07

The economic news recently has been better than expected and in most cases just pretty darn good. That isn’t true on a global basis as Europe continues to experience a pretty sluggish recovery from COVID. And China is busy shooting itself in the foot as Xi pursues the re-Maoing of Chinese society, damn the economic costs.

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This Is A Big One (no, it’s not clickbait)

2021-12-02

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2021-12-02

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: dollar up for reasons no one can explain; yield curve flattening dramatically resisting the BOND ROUT!!! everyone has said is inevitable; a very hawkish Fed increasingly certain about inflation risks; then, the eurodollar curve inverts which blasts Jay Powell’s dreamland in favor of the proper interpretation, deflation, of those first two.

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Medicare Eats Up Most of the 2022 Social Security Raise

2021-12-01

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2021-12-01

There was dancing in the streets when Social Security announced that 2022 checks will go up by 5.9%, the biggest Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) in 40 years. But now, the streets are empty and the cheering is gone. Most of that Social Security COLA will be eaten up by increases in Medicare.

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Economic Growth Scare: Are Markets Rightly Scared? [Eurodollar University, Ep. 168c]

2021-11-30

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The nominal value of Chinese imports of iron ore, German exports and Japanese exports all look pretty, pretty good. But the unit volume is pretty, pretty awful.

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The ‘Growth Scare’ Keeps Growing Out Of The Macro (Money) Illusion

2021-11-26

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2021-11-26

When Japan’s Ministry of Trade, Economy, and Industry (METI) reported earlier in November that Japanese Industrial Production (IP) had plunged again during the month of September 2021, it was so easy to just dismiss the decline as a product of delta COVID.

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Jeff Snider: Inflation Vs Deflation. Part 2

2021-11-24

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As the reflation trades cools down and the economic data begins to roll over, Jeff Snider, head of global research at Alhambra Investments, anticipates an ugly, near-term outcome for growth.

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Jeff Snider: Inflation Vs Deflation.

2021-11-23

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As the reflation trades cools down and the economic data begins to roll over, Jeff Snider, head of global research at Alhambra Investments, anticipates an ugly, near-term outcome for growth.

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Why QE Is NOT Money Printing | Jeff Snider & Emil Kalinowski

2021-11-18

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In this episode of On The Margin Mike is joined by Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments & Emil Kalinowski, Mining & Metals Researcher. Jeff & Emil are hosts of Eurodollar University, a podcast dedicated to analyzing the 2007 malfunction of the monetary system - and how its continuing disorder - affects finance, politics and society.

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Is jeff Snider Wrong about Inflation?

2021-11-17

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Reading Jeff Snider: Nobody’s Looking, Economic Activity Revised Down [Ep. 147, Macropiece Theater]

2021-11-07

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The September 2021 reading for America's new orders of durable goods shows stagnation / stalling. It is likely much worse but we won't know it for several years, not until the benchmark revisions are performed. We've seen this before, in 2018.

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The Wile E. Powell Inflation: Are We Really Just Going To Ignore The Cliff?

2021-11-06

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2021-11-06

Last year did not end on a sound note. The initial rebound after 2020’s recession was supposed to be a straight line, lifting upward for the other side of the infamous “V” shape. Such hopes had been dashed, though, and as the disappointing year wound toward its own end yet another big problem loomed.

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What Does Taper Look Like From The Inside? Not At All What You’d Think

2021-11-05

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2021-11-05

Why always round numbers? Monetary policy targets in the post-Volcker era are changed on even terms. Alan Greenspan had his quarter-point fed funds moves. Ben Bernanke faced with crisis would auction $25 billion via TAF. QE’s are done in even numbers, either total purchases or their monthly pace.

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The Real Tantrum Should Be Over The Disturbing Lack of Celebration (higher yields)

2021-11-03

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2021-11-03

Bring on the tantrum. Forget this prevaricating, we should want and expect interest rates to get on with normalizing. It’s been a long time, verging to the insanity of a decade and a half already that keeps trending more downward through time. What’s the holdup?

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Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)

2021-11-02

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2021-11-02

Alhambra CEO talks about last week’s reversal in bonds yields, if there’s a growth scare, what the yield curve is saying, plus reports on wages & salaries, core capital goods, and jobless claims.

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Bill Issuance Has Absolutely Surged, So Why *Haven’t* Yields, Reflation, And Other Good Things?

2021-11-02

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2021-11-02

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen hasn’t just been busy hawking cash management bills, her department has also been filling back up with the usual stuff, too. Regular T-bills. Going back to October 14, at the same time the CMB’s have been revived, so, too, have the 4-week and 13-week (3-month). Not the 8-week, though.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Growth Scare?

2021-11-01

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2021-11-01

A couple of weeks ago the 10 year Treasury note yield rose 16 basis points in the course of 5 trading days. That move was driven by near term inflation fears as I discussed last week. Long term inflation expectations were and are well behaved.

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