Category Archive: 5.) Alhambra Investments

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Economic Growth Scare: Are Markets Rightly Scared? [Eurodollar University, Ep. 168c]

2021-11-30

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The nominal value of Chinese imports of iron ore, German exports and Japanese exports all look pretty, pretty good. But the unit volume is pretty, pretty awful.

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The ‘Growth Scare’ Keeps Growing Out Of The Macro (Money) Illusion

2021-11-26

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2021-11-26

When Japan’s Ministry of Trade, Economy, and Industry (METI) reported earlier in November that Japanese Industrial Production (IP) had plunged again during the month of September 2021, it was so easy to just dismiss the decline as a product of delta COVID.

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Jeff Snider: Inflation Vs Deflation. Part 2

2021-11-24

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As the reflation trades cools down and the economic data begins to roll over, Jeff Snider, head of global research at Alhambra Investments, anticipates an ugly, near-term outcome for growth.

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Jeff Snider: Inflation Vs Deflation.

2021-11-23

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As the reflation trades cools down and the economic data begins to roll over, Jeff Snider, head of global research at Alhambra Investments, anticipates an ugly, near-term outcome for growth.

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Why QE Is NOT Money Printing | Jeff Snider & Emil Kalinowski

2021-11-18

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In this episode of On The Margin Mike is joined by Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments & Emil Kalinowski, Mining & Metals Researcher. Jeff & Emil are hosts of Eurodollar University, a podcast dedicated to analyzing the 2007 malfunction of the monetary system - and how its continuing disorder - affects finance, politics and society.

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Is jeff Snider Wrong about Inflation?

2021-11-17

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Reading Jeff Snider: Nobody’s Looking, Economic Activity Revised Down [Ep. 147, Macropiece Theater]

2021-11-07

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The September 2021 reading for America's new orders of durable goods shows stagnation / stalling. It is likely much worse but we won't know it for several years, not until the benchmark revisions are performed. We've seen this before, in 2018.

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The Wile E. Powell Inflation: Are We Really Just Going To Ignore The Cliff?

2021-11-06

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2021-11-06

Last year did not end on a sound note. The initial rebound after 2020’s recession was supposed to be a straight line, lifting upward for the other side of the infamous “V” shape. Such hopes had been dashed, though, and as the disappointing year wound toward its own end yet another big problem loomed.

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What Does Taper Look Like From The Inside? Not At All What You’d Think

2021-11-05

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2021-11-05

Why always round numbers? Monetary policy targets in the post-Volcker era are changed on even terms. Alan Greenspan had his quarter-point fed funds moves. Ben Bernanke faced with crisis would auction $25 billion via TAF. QE’s are done in even numbers, either total purchases or their monthly pace.

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The Real Tantrum Should Be Over The Disturbing Lack of Celebration (higher yields)

2021-11-03

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2021-11-03

Bring on the tantrum. Forget this prevaricating, we should want and expect interest rates to get on with normalizing. It’s been a long time, verging to the insanity of a decade and a half already that keeps trending more downward through time. What’s the holdup?

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Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)

2021-11-02

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2021-11-02

Alhambra CEO talks about last week’s reversal in bonds yields, if there’s a growth scare, what the yield curve is saying, plus reports on wages & salaries, core capital goods, and jobless claims.

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Bill Issuance Has Absolutely Surged, So Why *Haven’t* Yields, Reflation, And Other Good Things?

2021-11-02

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2021-11-02

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen hasn’t just been busy hawking cash management bills, her department has also been filling back up with the usual stuff, too. Regular T-bills. Going back to October 14, at the same time the CMB’s have been revived, so, too, have the 4-week and 13-week (3-month). Not the 8-week, though.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Growth Scare?

2021-11-01

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2021-11-01

A couple of weeks ago the 10 year Treasury note yield rose 16 basis points in the course of 5 trading days. That move was driven by near term inflation fears as I discussed last week. Long term inflation expectations were and are well behaved.

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Reading Jeff Snider: Why Do We Think Inflation Expectations Matter? [Ep. 139, Macropiece Theater]

2021-10-31

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Federal Reserve economist Jeremy Rudd's paper savages the use of inflation expectations in monetary econometrics. He lambasts the profession for producing "minimal direct evidence" and the "next-to-no-examination of alternatives". A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.

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GDP Red Flag

2021-10-31

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2021-10-31

There were no surprises in today’s US GDP data. As expected, output sharply decelerated, modestly missing much-reduced expectations. The continuously compounded annual rate of change for Q3 2021 compared to Q2 was the tiniest bit less than 2% (1.99591%) given most recent expectations had been closer to 3%.

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The Enormously Important Reasons To Revisit The Revisions Already Several Times Revisited

2021-10-29

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2021-10-29

Extraordinary times call for extraordinary commitment. I never set out nor imagined that a quarter century after embarking on what I thought would be a career managing portfolios, researching markets, and picking investments, I’d instead have to spend a good amount of my time in the future taking apart how raw economic data is collected, tabulated, and then disseminated.

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Short Run TIPS, LT Flat, Basically Awful Real(ity)

2021-10-28

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2021-10-28

Over the past week and a half, Treasury has rolled out the CMB’s (cash management bills; like Treasury bills, special issues not otherwise part of the regular debt rotation) one after another: $60 billion 40-day on the 19th; $60 billion 27-day on the 20th; and $40 billion 48-day just yesterday.

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What *Seems* Inflation Now Is Something Else Entirely

2021-10-27

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2021-10-27

This is yet another one of those crucial recent developments which should contribute much clarity about the economic situation, yet is exploited in other ways (political) adding only more to the general state of economic confusion. The shelves may be empty in a lot of places around the country, leaving anyone with the impression there just aren’t enough goods.

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1970s Inflation vs. 2020s Price Increases [Ep. 130, Macropiece Theater]

2021-10-27

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Time travel to the early 1970s where we hear the Nixon Tapes, read memorandums, and study Congressional testimony to understand what the Federal Reserve knew, and when they knew it. Turns out they didn't know "money" then and they still don't today. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.

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An Anti-Inflation Trio From Three Years Ago

2021-10-26

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2021-10-26

Do the similarities outweigh the differences? We better hope not. There is a lot about 2021 that is shaping up in the same way as 2018 had (with a splash of 2013 thrown in for disgust). Guaranteed inflation, interest rates have nowhere to go but up, and a certified rocking recovery restoring worldwide potential.

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