Category Archive: 5.) Alhambra Investments

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No Acceleration In Industry, Either

2017-02-20

U.S. Industrial Production Jan 2000 - Jan 2017

Industrial Production in the United States was flat in January 2017, following in December the first positive growth rate in over a year. The monthly estimates for IP are often subject to greater revisions than in other data series, so the figures for the latest month might change in the months ahead. Still, even with that in mind, there is no acceleration indicated for US industry.

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MacroVoices Presents: Jeffrey Snider – Understanding the Global US Dollar Shortage

2017-02-19

by Jeffrey P. Snider

MacroVoices Presents: Jeffrey Snider – Understanding the Global US Dollar Shortage

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Their Gap Is Closed, Ours Still Needs To Be

2017-02-19

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-02-19

There are actually two parts to examining the orthodox treatment of the output gap. The first is the review, looking backward to trace how we got to this state. The second is looking forward trying to figure what it means to be here. One final rearward assessment is required so as to frame how we view what comes next. As I suggested earlier this week, the so-called output gap started at the trough of the Great “Recession” at around 10% of the CBO’s...

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Why Aren’t Oil Prices $50 Ahead?

2017-02-18

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-02-18

Oil Prices Oil Inflation Economy Circular

Right now there are two conventional propositions behind the “reflation” trade, and in many ways both are highly related if not fully intertwined. The first is that interest rates have nowhere to go but up. The Fed is raising rates again and seems more confident in doing more this year than it wanted to last year. With nominal rates already rising in the last half of 2016, and with more (surveyed) optimism than even 2014, it may at times seem the...

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U.S. CPI after the energy push

2017-02-17

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-02-17

U.S. Consumer Prices Changes on Energy January 1995 - 2017

The Consumer Price Index for January 2017 rose 2.5%, pulled upward by its energy component which thanks to oil prices now being comparing to the absolutely lows last year saw that part of the index rise 11.1% year-over-year. Given that oil prices bottomed out on February 11, 2016, this is the last month where oil prices and thus energy inflation will be at its most extreme (except, of course, should WTI actually rise between now and the end of...

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review

2017-02-16

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2017-02-16

The economic data since my last update has improved somewhat. It isn’t across the board and it isn’t huge but it must be acknowledged. As usual though there are positives and negatives, just with a slight emphasis on positive right now. Interestingly, the bond market has not responded to these slightly more positive readings with nominal and real yields almost exactly where they were in the last update 3 weeks ago. In other words, there’s no reason...

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Real Wages Really Inconsistent

2017-02-16

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-02-16

Average Weekly Earnings Production and Nonsupervisory August 2007 - February 2017

Real average weekly earnings for the private sector fell 0.6% year-over-year in January. It was the first contraction since December 2013 and the sharpest since October 2012. The reason for it is very simple; nominal wages remain stubbornly stagnant but now a rising CPI subtracts even more from them.

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A New Frame Of Reference Is Really All That Is Necessary To Start With

2017-02-15

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-02-15

Evolution Fractional Lending Bank Reserves 1900 - 1921

In the middle of 1919, the United States was beset by a great many imbalances. Having just conducted a wartime economy, almost everything before then had been absorbed by the World War I effort. With fiscal restraint subsumed by national emergency, inflation was the central condition. Given that the Federal Reserve was by then merely a few years old, no one was quite sure what to do about it.

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Brazil: Continuing Problems

2017-02-13

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-02-13

Brazil Industrial Production 1975 - 2016

The cruelest part, perhaps, of this economic condition globally is how it plays against type. In all prior cycles, economies of all kinds and orientations all over the globe would go into recession and then bounce right of it once at the bottom. It was often difficult to see the bottom, of course, but once recovery happened there was no arguing against it.

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No China Trade Interpretations

2017-02-12

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-02-12

China Exports and Imports, January 2011 - January 2017

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China does not publish any of the big three data series (Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Fixed Asset Investment) for the month of January. It combines January data with February data because of the large distortions caused by Lunar New Year holidays.

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Jobless Claims Look Great, Until We Examine The Further Potential For What We Really, Really Don’t Want

2017-02-10

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2017-02-10

Initial Jobless Claims, January 1967 - January 2017

Initial jobless claims fell to just 234k for the week of February 4, nearly matching the 233k multi-decade low in mid-November. That brought the 4-week moving average down to just 244k, which was a new low going all the way back to the early 1970’s. Jobless claims seemingly stand in sharp contrast to other labor market figures which have been suggesting an economic slowdown for nearly two years.

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We Know How This Ends – Part 2

2016-12-23

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2016-12-23

In March 1969, while Buba was busy in the quicksand of its swaps and forward dollar interventions, Netherlands Bank (the Dutch central bank) had instructed commercial banks in Holland to pull back funds from the eurodollar market in order to bring up their liquidity positions which had dwindled dangerously during this increasing currency chaos.

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