Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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FX Weekly Preview: The Investment Climate

2018-03-26

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2018-03-26

The investment meme of a synchronized global upturn has been undermined by the recent string of US and European economic data. The flash March eurozone composite reading fell to 55.3, the lowest reading since January 2017. Although Q4 17 US GDP may be revised higher (toward 2.8% from 2.5%) mostly due to greater inventory accumulation, the curse of weak Q1 GDP appears to be showing its hand again, with forecasts now coming in below 2%.

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It’s all about China

2018-03-23

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Adam Button from ForexLive appears on BNN March 21, 2018 to talk about trade, China and the Canadian dollar.

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Cool Video: Let’s Not Declare Trade War Yet

2018-03-23

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2018-03-23

Trade tensions have risen. No doubt about it, but to consider this a trade war is premature. We should not pretend that this is the first time that the US adopted protectionist measures that ensnarled are military allies. We have been to this dance before.

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The trade war isn’t what you think

2018-03-22

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Adam Button from ForexLive talks about how the United States is about to turn the tables in the global trade war. Trump is lining up a coalition of the willing and when the target realizes what is happening it could get ugly. LET’S CONNECT! Facebook ► http://facebook.com/forexlive Twitter ► https://twitter.com/ForexLive Google+ ► https://plus.google.com/+Forexlive Homepage ► …

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FX Weekly Preview: The Fed and More

2018-03-19

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2018-03-19

The most significant event in the coming week is the first FOMC meeting under the Chair Powell. At ECB President Draghi’s first meeting he cut interest rates. He cuts rates at his second meeting as well, underwinding the two hikes the ECB approved under Trichet. At BOJ Governor Kuroda’s first meeting, an aggressive monetary policy was announced that was notable not only in its size, but also in the range of assets to be purchased under the...

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 19/03/2018 – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CHF

2018-03-19

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2018-03-19

USD/CHF, March 19
The USDCHF pair leaned well on 0.9488 level to resume its positive trading, on its way towards our first waited target at 0.9581, as the price moves inside bullish channel that appears on the above chart, supported by the EMA50 that protects trading inside this channel, noting that breaching the targeted level will extend the pair’s gains to reach 0.9675.

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Great Graphic: Potential Topping Pattern for Euro

2018-03-14

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2018-03-14

EUR/BGN Currency Oct 2017 - Apr 2018
The euro appears to be potentially carving out a topping pattern. Recall that after correcting lower last September and October, the euro rallied for three months through January before weakening 1.75% in February. That was its biggest decline since February 2017. The euro's high print was actually on February 16 near $1.2555, when it posted a key reversal, which is when it makes a new high for the move and then closes below the previous day's low.

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FX Daily, March 13: Non-Economic Developments Dominate Ahead of US CPI

2018-03-13

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2018-03-13

Many see the eruption of the scandal that threatens senior government officials as yen positive because it weakens those that ostensibly want to depreciate the yen through monetary policy. The scandal involves falsifying documents to conceal a sweetheart deal. The government sold of state-owned land to a school-operator, reportedly with connections to Prime Minister Abe's wife at an incredibly low price.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 12/03/2018 – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, Gold

2018-03-13

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2018-03-13

USD/CHF, March 13
The USDCHF pair traded negatively yesterday to break 0.9488 and settles below it, which stops the positive effect of the recently mentioned bullish pattern and push the price to decline again, targeting heading towards 0.9373 initially.

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FX Weekly Preview: Another Goldilocks Moment

2018-03-12

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2018-03-12

Spring is around the corner in the Northern Hemisphere, and with it, a sense of a Goldilocks moment. Growth is sufficiently strong to see employment grow and absorb the economic slack. In the US, the participation rate of the key 25-54 aged demographic group has risen and now stands at 89.3%, the highest since 2010.

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FX Daily, March 09: Today is about Jobs, but Not Really

2018-03-09

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2018-03-09

The US Administration has softened its initial hardline position of no exemptions for the new steel and aluminum tariffs. There is little doubt that the actions will be challenged at the World Trade Organization and the idea that national security includes the protection of jobs for trade purposes will be tested. At the same time, US President Trump has agreed to meet North Korea's Kim Jong Un.

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What’s next for the Canadian dollar

2018-03-08

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Adam Button talks about where the Canadian dollar is headed.

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FX Daily, March 07: Renewed Threat of Trade War Makes Investors Angry

2018-03-07

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2018-03-07

In response to the resignation of one of the few "globalist" advisers in the US Administration, the resignation Cohn has sent ripples through the capital markets. Stocks have been marked down across the world. The prospects of a trade war are also not good for growth and it may be adding to the pressure on yields.

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FX Daily, March 06: Resiliency Demonstrated

2018-03-06

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2018-03-06

The resiliency of the status quo is again on display. After much chin wagging and finger pointing after the Italian elections and the modest decline in Italian assets, they have bounced back today. Italian bonds and stocks are participating in today's advance. Italian equities were off 0.5% yesterday and are up a 1.1% near midday in Milan. Italy's 10-year yield rose three basis points yesterday is off five today.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 05/03/2018 – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP, AUDUSD

2018-03-06

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2018-03-06

USD/CHF, March 06
The USDCHF pair shows sideways trading around the EMA50, noticing that the EMA50 shows clear negative signals on the four hours’ time frame, while the price settles below the intraday bullish channel’s support line that appears on the chart.

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Great Graphic: Is the Canadian Dollar a Buy Soon against the Mexican Peso?

2018-03-06

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2018-03-06

This Great Graphic composed on Bloomberg shows the Canadian dollar against the Mexican peso since the start of last year. There have been three big moves. The Canadian dollar trended lower against the peso as it corrected from the sharp sell-off induced in great measure to the candidate Trump's rhetoric against Mexico. However, shortly before the inauguration, the peso began recovering continued through H1 17.

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FX Daily, March 05: Italian Election Weighs on Italian Assets, but Little Systemic Risk Seen

2018-03-05

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2018-03-05

The US dollar is narrowly mixed. The Japanese yen remains firm. The dollar appears stuck in a narrow range. Near JPY105.20 the seems to be some short-covering pressure in front of JPY105. On the top side, the greenback is encountering offers in front of JPY105.80. Sterling is firm against the dollar as it recovers against the euro. Before the weekend, the euro reached GBP0.8950, its best levels since last November. The euro is testing GBP0.8900...

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FX Weekly Preview: Thumbnail Sketch Four Central Bank Meetings and US Jobs Data

2018-03-05

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2018-03-05

The German Social Democrats have endorsed the Grand Coalition, ending the period of political uncertainty and paralysis in Germany since the last September's election. The polls have suggested nearly 60% of the SPD would support joining the government and the actual outcome looks to be closer to 66%. In 2013, when the SPD had a similar vote, three-quarters favored a Grand Coalition. Among the differences is that the SPD public support has waned,...

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