Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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G7 Summit: Risk of a Global Crisis, Maritime Disputes and the Dollar

2016-05-26

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2016-05-26

The G7 heads of state summit has begun.  The host, Japan’s Prime Minister Abe began with doom and gloom.  Accounts suggest he warned of the risk of a crisis on the scale of Lehman if appropriate policies are not taken.  It is not clear to whom Abe was addressing.  It may not have been the … Continue...

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FX Daily, May 26: Dollar Softer in Consolidation Mode

2016-05-26

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2016-05-26

The US dollar is trading with a softer bias today after the momentum stalled yesterday.  The pullback is shallow but could be extended a bit more in the North American session.  The US reports weekly jobless claims, durable goods orders and pending home sales.   However, the market already appeared to take on board that the …

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You have to trust your levels in forex trading

2016-05-25

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Greg Michalowski, Director of Client education and technical analysis for ForexLive, discusses how traders need to trust their technical levels to provide insight into the next market action. Sometimes it take a while to develop but if the level is important, it often shows the way.

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What the Greek Deal Does and Does Not Do

2016-05-25

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2016-05-25

For investors, the most important thing about the successful review of Greece’s implementation of last year’s agreement is that it effectively removes it from the list of potential disruptive factors in the coming quarters.   There will be no repeat of last year’s drama. Assuming Greece resolves a few outstanding issues in the next few days, …

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FX Daily, May 25: Dollar Marks time

2016-05-25

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2016-05-25

  The US dollar is little changed against the major currencies as yesterday’s moves are consolidated and traders wait for fresh developments.  Global equities were higher after Wall Street’s advance yesterday.  Asia-Pacific bond yields were firm, following the US lead, but European 10-year benchmark yields are lower, led by the continued rally in Greek bonds …

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The Yuan and Market Forces: Declaratory and Operational Policy

2016-05-24

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2016-05-24

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that minutes of a meeting in China two months ago reveal that officials there have abandoned their commitment to give market forces greater sway in setting the yuan’s exchange rate.  Reportedly, in response to economists and banks request that officials stop resisting market pressure, one PBOC official explained that …

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LIBOR Alternatives Taking Shape

2016-05-24

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2016-05-24

Since the LIBOR scandal erupted, US officials have been working toward an alternative benchmark.  In 2014, the Fed set up a working committee that includes more than a dozen large banks and regulators   Before the weekend the committee (Alternative Reference Rates Committee) proposed two possible replacements for LIBOR. There reportedly was some consideration of …

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FX Daily, May 24: Dollar Regains Momentum, Sterling Resists

2016-05-24

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2016-05-24

The US dollar lost momentum yesterday but has regained it today.  The euro has been pushed through last week's lows near $1.1180.  The next immediate target is  $1.1145, which corresponds to the lower Bollinger Band today, though the intraday te...

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Great Graphic: Dollar Pushes Back Below JPY110

2016-05-23

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2016-05-23

The yen is the strongest of the major currencies.  It has gained about 0.65% against the dollar.  It has been grinding lower throughout the Asian and European session and has remained in narrow ranges near its highs in the US morning. Japan still seems isolated in terms of it desire to intervene.  Ahead of the … Continue reading...

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Cool Video: Bloomberg Surveillance: Dollar to trend higher

2016-05-23

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2016-05-23

Returning from a two-week business trip to Asia, I was invited to appear on Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua.  Check out the video clip here. Key Points My key points include,the driver now is changing perceptions of the trajectory of Fed policy and the reemergence of divergence.  I suggest that “real news” …

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FX Daily May 23

2016-05-23

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2016-05-23

The capital markets are off to a mixed start to start the last week of the month.  Asian shares were mostly higher, though the Nikkei shed 0.5%.  European shares are also higher, extending the three-week high seen last week.  The US dollar is...

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Emerging Market Preview for the Week Ahead

2016-05-22

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2016-05-22

EM had another rocky week, but managed to end on a slightly firmer note Friday.  Market repricing of Fed tightening risk was the big driver last week, and that could carry over into this week.  There are several Fed speakers in the days ahead, capped...

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Forex Video: I spent my Saturday, working on how I was going to say…

2016-05-22

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Greg MIchalowski, Director of Client Education and Technical Analysis for ForexLive.com, has a different sort of video on Forex and Forex Education. You might say it is an invitation to better forex trading.

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FX Week Ahead: Evolving Investment Climate

2016-05-22

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2016-05-22

The US dollar’s weakness in recent months, despite negative interest rates in Europe and Japan likely had many contributing factors. These factors include shifting views of Fed policy, weaker US growth, the recovery in commodity prices, including oil, gold and iron ore, and market positioning.

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Sentiment Shift Evident in Speculative Adjustment in Currency Futures

2016-05-21

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2016-05-21

Speculative positioning in the currency futures began to adjust before the latest signals from the Federal Reserve about the prospects for a summer hike and the widening of interest rate differentials.  In the CFTC reporting week ending May 17, the day before the FOMC minutes were released speculators mostly reduced gross long currency positions and added …

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Daily FX, May 20: Divergence Reasserted, Extends Greenback’s Recovery

2016-05-21

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2016-05-21

The combination of stronger US economic data and signals from the Federal Reserve that it is looking to continue the normalization process helped the dollar extended its recovery.  The dollar posted a significant technical reversal against many of the major currencies on May 3.  The Dollar Index rose for its third week, as the greenback climbed …

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2016-05-20

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2016-05-20

The Philippine central bank moved to an interest rate corridor Saudi Arabia is preparing to sell its first global bond ever Transport Minister Yildirim, a close ally of President Erdogan, will become Turkey’s new Prime Minister The new Brazil cabinet continues to take shape with a market-friendly bias In the EM equity space, South Africa …

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Forex Trading Education: Take a step back and see what the big picture is saying

2016-05-20

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In this video, Greg Michalowski of ForexLive demonstrates how to look longer term at forex charts. Sometimes we get caught in the minutia of the shorter term swings. Non-trending periods can tend to do that as the focus is on the break. We as traders have to make sure we divorce ourselves from the shorter …

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FX Daily, May 19: FOMC Minutes Extend Dollar Gains

2016-05-19

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2016-05-19

We felt strongly that the FOMC minutes would be more hawkish than the statement that followed the meeting, and we were not disappointed.  However, our caveat remains:  the minutes dilute the signal that emanates from the Fed’s leadership, Yellen, Fischer, and Dudley.  The latter two speak in the NY morning.  Fischer and Dudley’s comment will be scrutinized …

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Cool Video: CNBC Asia–Rare Double Feature

2016-05-18

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2016-05-18

My two week trip to Asia is winding down.  I had the privilege of being on CNBC in Asia earlier today and discussed the markets with Martin Soong from Singapore.     There were two segments.  The first segment (here) is about two minutes long and focuses on about Japan.  The second segment (there) is 3.5 … Continue reading »

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