Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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Status of US Pivot To Asia

2017-03-22

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2017-03-22

AsiaPivot
Pivot still taking place, but without TPP, more militaristic. President Trump seems a little less confrontational toward China. China is unlikely to be cited as a currency manipulator in next month's Treasury report.

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Weekly Speculative Position: After ECB, Reduction of Euro Shorts

2017-03-20

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2017-03-20

Speculative Positions Commitments of traders Swiss Franc 20 Mar
Speculators reduced their net Euro shorts after the less dovish ECB. But the net short of CHF nearly remains stable. This resulted in an appreciation of EUR/CHF.

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FX Weekly Preview: Divergence Theme Questioned

2017-03-20

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2017-03-20

catlion
Recent developments have given rise to doubts over the divergence theme, which we suggested have shaped the investment climate. There are some at the ECB who suggest rates can rise before the asset purchases end. The Bank of England left rates on hold, but it was a hawkish hold, as there was a dissent in favor of an immediate rate hike, and the rest of the Monetary Policy Committee showed that their patience with both rising price prices and the...

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FX Weekly Review, March 13 – March 18: Fed Disappoints, Dollar Losses

2017-03-19

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2017-03-19

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, March 18
The failure of the Fed to signal an increased pace of normalization and the prospects of other central banks raising rates spurred dollar losses, which deteriorated its technical outlook.

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Oil Supply Remains Resilient, Prices Heavy

2017-03-19

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2017-03-19

Nearly half of OPEC's intended cuts are being offset by an increase in US output. The contango rewards the accumulation of inventories. The drop in oil prices probably weighs more on European reflation story than the US.

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FX Daily, March 17: Dollar Remains Heavy

2017-03-17

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2017-03-17

The dollar is softer against most of the major currencies to cap a poor weekly performance. The Dollar Index is posting what may be its biggest weekly loss since last November. The combination of the Federal Reserve not signaling an acceleration of normalization, while the market remains profoundly skeptical of even its current indications, and perceptions that the ECB and BOE can raise earlier than anticipated weighed on the dollar. The PBOC...

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Trump: Unilateralism or Isolationism?

2017-03-17

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2017-03-17

Many who think that the US is becoming isolationist are wrong. The thrust is now more about unilateralism. Unilateralism can lead to the US being more isolated.

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FX Daily, March 16: Greenback Consolidates Losses as Yields Stabilize

2017-03-16

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2017-03-16

The US dollar remained under pressure in Asia following the disappointment that the FOMC did not signal a more aggressive stance, even though its delivered the nearly universally expected 25 bp rate hike. News that the populist-nationalist Freedom Party did worse than expected in the Dutch elections also helped underpin the euro, which rose to nearly $1.0750 from a low close to $1.06 yesterday.

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Federal Reserve Hikes, but Changes Little Else

2017-03-16

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2017-03-16

Fed made mostly minor changes in the statement as it hiked the Fed funds rate for the third time in the cycle. The average and median dot for Fed funds crept slightly higher. There was only one dissent to the decision.

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FX Daily, March 15: Greenback Softens Ahead of FOMC

2017-03-15

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2017-03-15

The US dollar is paring yesterday's gains as the market awaits the outcome of the well-telegraphed FOMC meeting. In recent weeks, the combination of data and official comments have swayed market, which had previously anticipated a hike in May or June.

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China’s NPC Ends with New Initiatives

2017-03-15

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2017-03-15

China will make its mainland bond market more accessible. As China's portfolio of patents grows it will likely become more protective of others' intellectual property rights. PRC President Xi will likely visit US President Trump early next month.

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FX Daily, March 14: Brexit Takes Fresh Toll on Sterling, While Dollar Firms more Broadly

2017-03-14

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2017-03-14

UK Prime Minister May got the parliamentary approval the courts ruled was necessary to formally trigger Article 50. It is not clear what UK she will lead out the EU. Scotland is beginning the legal proceedings to hold another referendum on independence. There is some talk that Northern Ireland, which voted to remain, might be allowed to rejoin the Republic of Ireland.

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Trump Administration Modifying Stance on Way to G20

2017-03-14

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2017-03-14

Confrontation with China has been dialed down. Criticism of the Fed has been walked back. There is less talk about the dollar. Employment data has been embraced.

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Weekly Speculative Position: Less dovish ECB not include yet

2017-03-13

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2017-03-13

Speculative Positions Commitments of traders Swiss Franc 13 March
The commitments of traders were released on March 7 before the ECB meeting of March 9. We expect a considerable re-adjustment.

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FX Daily, March 13: Bonds and Equities Rally, Dollar Heavy

2017-03-13

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2017-03-13

Hit by profit-taking ahead of the weekend, despite US jobs data that remove the last hurdle to another Fed hike this week, the greenback remains on the defensive. It has softened against all the major currencies and many of the emerging market currencies. The chief exception is those in eastern and central Europe.

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FX Weekly Preview: Succinct Views of Ten Events and Market Drivers: Week Ahead

2017-03-13

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2017-03-13

The week ahead is the busiest week of the first quarter. It sees four major central meetings, including the Federal Reserve which is likely to raise rates for the second time in four months. The Dutch hold the first European election of the year, and the populist-nationalist party remains in contention for the top slot. The week concludes with the G20 meeting, the first that the Trump Administration's presence will be felt.

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FX Weekly Review, March 06 – March 11: CHF loses against the euro

2017-03-12

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2017-03-12

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, March 11
The Swiss Franc lost this week in particular against the euro, given that Mario Draghi was less dovish than expected. If the stronger euro is driven only by speculators, or also by "real money" (investments in cash, bonds, stocks) will be visible in Monday's sight deposits release.

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FX Daily, March 10: US Jobs Data: Deja Vu All Over Again?

2017-03-10

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2017-03-10

A week ago, after nine Fed officials had spoken, the market widely expected Yellen and Fischer to confirm that the table was set for a rate hike later this month. They did, and the dollar and US interest rates fell. Now, after a strong ADP jobs report (298k), everyone recognizes upside risk to today’s national report, and the dollar has lost its upside momentum against most major currencies, but the Japanese yen.

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Solid US Jobs Report in line with Expectations

2017-03-10

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2017-03-10

fred
The US jobs report was largely in line with expectations. February was the second consecutive month that the US economy created more than 200k jobs. It is the first time since last June and July. The 235k is just below the revised January 238k gain (initially 227k).

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