Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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FX Daily, December 7: Holy Mackerel Will UK-EU Talks Really Flounder?

2020-12-07

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2020-12-07

Overview:  Optimists see the belabored talk between the UK and EU as providing for a dramatic climax of a deal, while the pessimists warn that the divergence is real.  Sterling opened three-quarters of a cent lower in early turnover and is now off around two cents. 

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FX Daily, December 4: The Employment Report may not Give Greenback much of a Reprieve

2020-12-04

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2020-12-04

After wobbling late yesterday on what appears to be old news from Pfizer about a disruption of the vaccine's supply chain, equity markets have recovered, and risk appetites remain intact.   With more than 1% gains in South Korea's Kospi and Taiwan's Taiex, the MSCI Asia Pacific benchmark secured its fifth consecutive weekly gain. 

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FX Daily, December 03: Euro Rally Stalls while Brexit Concerns Trip Sterling

2020-12-03

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2020-12-03

falling money
The selling pressure that drove the dollar lower yesterday has abated, and the greenback is paring yesterday's loss, though the dollar-bloc currencies are showing some resilience. EC negotiator Barnier briefed ministers that the same three issues that have bedeviled the trade talks with the UK remain unresolved (fisheries, level playing field, and a conflict resolution mechanism).

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FX Daily, December 2: Euro Rally Stalls while Brexit Concerns Trip Sterling

2020-12-02

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2020-12-02

The selling pressure that drove the dollar lower yesterday has abated, and the greenback is paring yesterday's loss, though the dollar-bloc currencies are showing some resilience. EC negotiator Barnier briefed ministers that the same three issues that have bedeviled the trade talks with the UK remain unresolved (fisheries, level playing field, and a conflict resolution mechanism).

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FX Daily, December 1: No Follow-Through After Month-End Adjustments

2020-12-01

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2020-12-01

The near-record rallies seen in the major equity markets in November may have contributed to the month-end drama yesterday. There has been no follow-through activity. Stocks bounced back, and the US dollar is heavy, with few exceptions.

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FX Daily, November 30: Equities are Heavy and the Dollar Softer to Start New Week

2020-11-30

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2020-11-30

Overview: Month-end profit-taking saw Asia Pacific shares tumble earlier today.  Most markets are off 1-2.5% today after the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 2.25% last week.  European shares are mixed, but little changed.  US shares are also trading lower. 

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FX Daily, November 27: Dollar Offered Ahead of the Weekend

2020-11-27

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2020-11-27

Equities are finishing the week on a firm tone, while the US dollar remains heavy.   In the Asia Pacific, only Australia and India did not end the week on a firm note.  The MSCI Asia Pacific completed its fourth consecutive weekly gain, for around a 13% gain. 

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FX Daily, November 25: Risk Appetites Stall Ahead of the US Thanksgiving Holiday

2020-11-25

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2020-11-25

The global equity rally appears to be stalling after the US markets rallied strongly yesterday. Chinese, Taiwan, Korean, and Indian indices fell, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index appears to have posted only its second loss this month. European shares are narrowly mixed, leaving the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 little changed.

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FX Daily, November 24: Diverging PMIs Fail to Give the Dollar Lasting Support

2020-11-24

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2020-11-24

Overview: The contrast between the eurozone and US preliminary PMI readings caught the short-term market leaning the wrong way, and the dollar snapped back after extending its recent losses.  However, today the US dollar is back on its heels and returning to yesterday's lows against most major currencies.

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FX Daily, November 23: Markets Look Past Near-Term Challenges

2020-11-23

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2020-11-23

Overview:  News that the AstraZeneca vaccine was 70% effective but could be enhanced by changing dosage is lifting spirits and boosting equities.  Japan's markets were closed for a national holiday, but all the equity markets in the region advanced and many by more than 1%. 

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FX Daily, November 20: US Treasury-Fed Dispute Spurs Handwringing but Immediate Market Impact was Exaggerated

2020-11-20

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2020-11-20

Overview:  News that the stimulus talks between the House Democrats and Senate Republicans was the excuse traders were looking for to extend the US equity gains yesterday, but shortly after the close, confirmation that Treasury was not going to agree to extend several Fed facilities sent stocks reeling. 

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FX Daily, November 19: Surging Virus Saps Risk Appetites

2020-11-19

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2020-11-19

Overview: News that the New York City was closing the schools to contain the virus sent stocks reeling in late North American dealings yesterday and spurred some profit-taking in the Asia Pacific and Europe.  Equities in the Asia Pacific region were mostly lower, though China, South Korea, and Australia's advanced and Tokyo markets were mixed.

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FX Daily, November 18: Balancing Pandemic Surge with Optimism about Vaccine

2020-11-18

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2020-11-18

News that Tokyo will go to its highest alert as it faces a rising contagion snapped a 12-day rally in the Nikkei, but most bourses in the Asia Pacific region excluding Japan advanced, though Chinese equities were mixed. European equities are narrowly mixed as the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 continues to gyrate within Monday's range.

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FX Daily, November 17: Greenback Remains Under Pressure

2020-11-17

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2020-11-17

Overview: Moderna's announcement did not spur nearly the magnitude of the disruption caused by Pfizer's similar announcement a week ago.  Still, in the US, the NASDAQ underperformed the other indices, and the US Dow Industrials saw record highs.

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FX Daily, November 16: Risk-On Despite Surging Pandemic

2020-11-16

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2020-11-16

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 16
Despite the surging pandemic and new restriction measure, risk-appetites appear strong to start the week. Led by 2% gains in the Nikkei and Taiwan's Taiex, all of the Asia Pacific region's equity markets advanced. European markets have followed suit and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is knocking on last week's eight-month high.

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FX Daily, November 13: Greenback Pares this Week’s Gains while the Turkish Lira Continues to Squeeze Higher

2020-11-13

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2020-11-13

Overview: The largest bourses in the Asia Pacific region followed the US equity market lower, with the Nikkei posting its first loss in nine sessions. China, Hong Kong, and Australia moved lower as well. On the week, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained about 1% after rising 6.3% in the prior week.

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FX Daily, November 12: Nervous Calm in the Capital Markets

2020-11-12

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2020-11-12

There is a nervous calm in the capital markets today.  The equity rally in the Asia Pacific region stalled to end an eight-day rally, though the Nikkei's rally remains intact. 

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FX Daily, November 11: Reduced Risk of Negative Policy Rates Lifts Sterling and the Kiwi

2020-11-11

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2020-11-11

Overview:  Investors are trying to figure out the impact of the likelihood of a vaccine. One thing that has happened is that the market perceives less chance that the UK or New Zealand will adopt negative rates, and their respective currencies are adjusting higher.  Meanwhile, the equity rally is continuing in Asia and Europe.

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FX Daily, November 10: Markets Remain Unsettled

2020-11-10

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2020-11-10

Overview: Pfizer's vaccine announcement eclipsed the US election as the key market driver. It spurred the unwinding of Covid trades in terms of sectors and yields.  Emerging market currencies and the majors that benefit from world growth outperformed the perceived safe-havens, like the yen and the Swiss franc.

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FX Daily, November 9: Markets are not Waiting for Official Closure in the US

2020-11-09

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2020-11-09

The new week has begun with robust risk appetites, driving stocks and stocks higher and sending the dollar broadly lower.  Nearly all the equity markets in the Asia Pacific region gained more than 1%, except Malaysia and Indonesia. 

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