Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
My articlesMy offerMy siteAbout meMy books
Follow on:LinkedINTwitterSeeking AlphaAmazon
Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

Is a Failed Bearish Technical Signal Bullish?

2022-10-16

by

2022-10-16

By nearly any measure one chooses, the dollar is historically rich. When it does turn, it would likely be dramatic. That is what happened after the stronger-than-expected US CPI figures. However, the lack of follow-through is what one would expect if the greenback's bull move was intact.  Still, we expect the dollar's super-cycle is entering a new phase. 

Read More »

Week Ahead: Focus Shifts away from the US after Robust Jobs Data and Stronger than Expected Inflation

2022-10-15

by

2022-10-15

The latest US employment and inflation figures are passed. The market is confident of a 75 bp rate hike next month. While a 50 bp in December is still the odds-on favorite, the market has a slight chance (~15%) of a 100 bp move instead after the robust jobs report and stronger-than-expected September CPI.

Read More »

Dollar Recovers from Yesterday’s Stunning Reversal, but has Sentiment Turned in North America?

2022-10-14

by

2022-10-14

There has been little follow-through dollar selling so far today after yesterday’s dramatic downside reversal after the initial flurry of buying in response to the stronger than expected US CPI.

Read More »

Can We Look Past US CPI ?

2022-10-13

by

2022-10-13

Overview: There seems to be a nervous calm today ahead of the US CPI. The dollar is hovering near JPY147 but the risk of BOJ intervention in the North American session seems slim. The BOE’s emergency Gilt buying operation ends tomorrow and UK bonds yields have tumbled. While equities in the Asia Pacific region lost ground, Europe’s Stoxx 600 is trying to snap a six-day decline.

Read More »

The Tragedy of the Commons

2022-10-12

by

2022-10-12

Overview: The dramatic moves spurred by the BOE maintaining the end of the week deadline for its Gilt purchases, which have been quite modest given its wherewithal, have calmed. Sterling is firmer on the day, though long-end Gilt yields are higher. The dollar has pushed above JPY145.90, where the BOJ intervened last month.

Read More »

SNB’s Jordan: Central Bank Independence is crucial to fight inflation effectively

2022-10-12

by

2022-10-12

SNB Jordan is on the wires speaks in general terms: Central bank independence is crucial to fight inflation effectively.

Read More »

Bank of England Steps in to Buy Inflation-Linked Bonds for the First Time

2022-10-11

by

2022-10-11

Overview:  The dollar continues to ride high. It reached its highest level against the yen since the recent intervention. The Canadian dollar has fallen to its lowest level in two-and-a-half years and the New Zealand dollar is approaching the 2020 extreme.

Read More »

New Week, but same Old Stocks (Heavier) and Dollar (Stronger)

2022-10-10

by

2022-10-10

The start of the new week has not broken the bearish drive lower in equities. Several Asia Pacific centers were closed, including Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea. China’s markets re-opened, and the new US sanctions coupled with the disappointing Caixin service and composite PMI took its toll.

Read More »

Is the Dollar Vulnerable to Buy Rumor Sell Fact after the CPI?

2022-10-09

by

2022-10-09

We suggested that the US jobs data and the CPI would be a 1-2 punch that would strengthen the greenback after it pulled back from extremes seen in late September. 

Read More »

No Rest for the Weary: The Week Ahead

2022-10-08

by

2022-10-08

In Volcker's days, when he used money supply to justify tightening monetary policy despite high unemployment, the money supply was released while markets were open, and it was The report. Later, by the mid-1980s, leading up to the Plaza Agreement, the deterioration of the US monthly trade balance was critical.

Read More »

Intraday Momentum Indicators Point to a Dollar Recovery After the Employment Report

2022-10-07

by

2022-10-07

Asia Pacific bourses followed yesterday’s US loss, but after opening lower Europe’s Stoxx 600 has steadied. US futures are narrowly mixed ahead of the US jobs report. Benchmark 10-year yields are higher across the board.

Read More »

Volatility Snaps Near-Term Conviction

2022-10-06

by

2022-10-06

Overview:  The markets seem to lack conviction today. Stocks in the Asian Pacific region advanced. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is giving up its earlier advance, and US futures are heavier. Australian and New Zealand bonds played catch-up after the rise in the US and Europe yesterday.

Read More »

Dollar Slump Halted as Stocks and Bonds Retreat

2022-10-05

by

2022-10-05

Overview: Hopes that the global tightening cycle is entering its last phase supplied the fodder for a continued dramatic rally in equities and bonds. The euro traded at par for the first time in two weeks, while sterling reached almost $1.1490, its highest since September 15.

Read More »

CHF traders – heads up for a SNB speaker Wednesday, 5 October 2022 – Maechler

2022-10-05

by

2022-10-05

Swiss National Bank monetary policymaker Andrea Maechler is speaking at 1130 GMT, at an event titled: After the interest rate change: high inflation, rising interest. How will it affect the Swiss economy?

Read More »

Stocks and Bonds Extend Rally

2022-10-04

by

2022-10-04

The big bond and stock market seen yesterday has continued today. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s reversion to a quarter-point hike stokes hope that the aggressive tightening cycle more broadly is set to slow.

Read More »

Monday Blues

2022-10-03

by

2022-10-03

The markets begin October with some trepidation.  Rumors continue to circulate about the health of a large European bank, cross currency swaps are elevated, suggest dollars are more difficult to access. 

Read More »

October 2022 Monthly

2022-10-02

by

2022-10-02

The historic dollar rally accelerated in September. By some measures, it is as rich as it has been in the half-century since the end of Bretton Woods. Persistent price pressures, a robust labor market in many dimensions, and the Federal Reserve's latest forecasts warn that financial conditions will tighten into next year

Read More »

Week Ahead: Macro and Prices

2022-10-01

by

2022-10-01

The market has much to digest. The Bank of England's new purchases of Gilts coincided with a reassessment of the trajectory of Fed policy. After the hawkish FOMC decision and forecasts, the market briefly thought the terminal rate could be 5.25-5.50% in the middle of next year. However, by the end of last week, it had returned to around 4.5% at the end of Q1 23.

Read More »

Wake Me Up When September Ends

2022-09-30

by

2022-09-30

Benchmark 10-year yields are off 6-8 basis points in Europe and the United States. The panic seen at the start of the week in the UK has subsided considerably, as sterling recovered to almost where it was a week ago, while BOE’s hand has help steady the Gilt market. Equities in Asia Pacific suffered after the losses in the US yesterday. Hong Kong and India were notable exceptions.

Read More »

Semblance of Calm Returns

2022-09-27

by

2022-09-27

(Business travel will prevent me from updating the blog for the next couple of days.  Thank you for your patience.  Good luck.)Overview: After extending last week’s moves yesterday, the capital markets are mostly calmer today. Sterling is firmer, as are UK Gilts.

Read More »