Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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FX Daily, May 03: Respite to Dollar Short Squeeze

2018-05-03

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2018-05-03

The Australian dollar is higher for a second session. It has been helped today by stronger than expected data in the form of a larger than expected March trade surplus (A$1.57 bln vs. expectations for A$865 mln) and building permits up more than twice as expected (2.6% vs. 1.0%). Today is the first session since April 19 that the Australian dollar has risen above the previous day's high. Initial resistance is seen near $0.7550 and then $0.7580.

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FX Daily, May 02: Confident Fed Key to New Found Respect for the Dollar

2018-05-02

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2018-05-02

There is a brief respite in the powerful short squeeze that has fueled the dollar's dramatic recovery. The greenback which was nearly friendless a month ago now has many suitors. It is higher on the year against all the major currencies but the yen (~2.6%), the Norwegian krone (~1.6%) and sterling ~0.9%). It is virtually flat against the euro.

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FX Daily, May 01: Little Help on May Day

2018-05-01

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2018-05-01

Most of the world's financial centers are closed for the May Day holiday, but the lack of participation has not prevented the extension of the US dollar's recovery. The Dollar Index has traded above its 200-day moving average for the first time in a year.

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FX Daily, April 30: Merger Monday

2018-04-30

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2018-04-30

Three large corporate deals were announced. T-Mobile appears to have finally figured a way to secure Sprint. It is a $26.5 bln equity tie-up. Marathon Petroleum is reportedly taking Andeavor for $20 bln in cash and stock. Sainsbury is reportedly in advanced talks to buy Walmart's Asda chain for GBP7.3 bln (~$10 bln) in an equity and cash transaction.

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FX Weekly Preview: Next Week in Context

2018-04-30

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2018-04-30

A year ago, the Dutch and French elections signaled that UK referendum to leave the EU and the US election of Trump did not usher in a populist-nationalist epoch, such as the one that proceeded the last great financial crisis. The euro gapped higher and did not look back.

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FX Daily, April 27: Dollar Puts Finishing Touches on Best Week Since November 2016

2018-04-27

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2018-04-27

The US dollar's recent gains have been extended, and it is having one of its best weeks since November 2016. The Dollar Index is up 1.7% for the week, as US session is about to start. Though it took this week's gains to change market's narrative, the fact of the matter, as we have pointed out is that April is the third consecutive month in which the Dollar Index fell in only one week. That translates into rising 10 of the past 13 weeks.

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The Fed isn’t only tightening for the US

2018-04-26

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Adam Button from ForexLive spoke to BNN about how Fed hikes could make the Bank of Canada slow down its rate hike path. It’s something other global central bankers will also be thinking about. Adam also discussed the outlook for the US dollar and CAD more broadly. Aired April 26 ,2018

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FX Daily, April 26: Euro Remains Soft Ahead of Draghi

2018-04-26

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2018-04-26

The euro made a marginal new low early in European turnover and held barely above the spike low on March 1 to $1.2155. So far, today is the first session since January 11 that the euro has not traded above $1.22. The euro stabilized as the European morning progressed, but there seems to be little real buying interest it ahead of Draghi's press conference following the ECB decision.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 23/04/2018 – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, WTI oil futures

2018-04-26

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2018-04-26

USD/CHF, April 26
The USDCHF pair touched the bullish channel’s resistance that appears on the chart, and the price might be forced to show some temporary decline to test the support base formed above 0.9790 before resuming the rise again. In general, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend supported by the EMA50, depending on the organized trading inside the mentioned bullish channel, noting that our next target is located at 0.9900, while holding above...

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Oil: Supply and Demand Drivers

2018-04-26

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2018-04-26

Oil prices have recovered more than 50% of the decline since the mid-September peak. The next retracement objectives are found near $82 a barrel for Brent and $76.5 for WTI basis the continuation futures contract. The immediate consideration is that supplies have tightened.

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FX Daily, April 25: Dollar Regains Luster, but Consolidation Likely Ahead of Key Events and Data

2018-04-25

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2018-04-25

The US dollar reversed lower yesterday after US yields softened and equities tumbled. However, the greenback has bounced back, and has extended its gains against the major currencies except the euro and sterling. The on-the-run and generic US 10-year yields are edging above 3%.

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FX Daily, April 24: Stalled US Rates Steal Greenback’s Thunder

2018-04-24

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2018-04-24

The US dollar looked set to launch a new leg higher, but rates stalled, which in turn is unleashing some mild corrective pressures. The US two-year yield has been unable to extend its increase beyond 2.50%, while the 10-year rate has stalled within a whisker of the 3% psychological threshold. The greenback's momentum did indeed carry it, but by late morning on the Continent, a consolidative tone was evident.

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Great Graphic: Aussie Tests Trendline

2018-04-24

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2018-04-24

It is not that the Australian dollar is the weakest currency this month. Its 0.4% decline puts it among the better performers against the US dollar. However, it has fallen to a new low for the year today. The losses have carried to a trendline drawn off of the early 2016 low near $0.6800.

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FX Daily, April 23: Rising Rates Help Extend Dollar Gains

2018-04-23

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2018-04-23

The new week has begun much like last week ended, with rising rates helping to extend the dollar's recent gains. The US 10-year yield is flirting with the 3.0% threshold. The two-year yield is firmer, and, like in the second half of last week, the US curve is becoming a little less flat. The market, as we had anticipated, was not so impressed with North Korea's measures, and Korea's Kospi edged lowed, and the region-leading KOSDAQ fell a little...

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FX Weekly Preview: Markets and Macro

2018-04-23

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2018-04-23

Worries about a trade war appear to have eased, at least for the moment, but that does not make investors worry-free. The concerns have shifted toward rising US interest rates, perhaps more than anything else, but general anxiety seems elevated.

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Don’t let fear crowd out your chance of success in your forex trading

2018-04-21

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Fear can get out of hand in your life and in your forex trading. If you let it get the best of you, your chance of success starts to dwindle. Don’t let it happen to you In this video, Greg Michalowski of Forexlive, discusses fear and ways that you can eliminate it from your trading. … Continue...

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FX Daily, April 20: The Greenback is Alive

2018-04-20

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2018-04-20

The US dollar is set to finish the week on a firm note. It reflects rising US yields, where the 10-year is above 2.90% for the first time since February and the widening two-year different between the US and Germany, which is holding just below 300 bp. It is the fourth consecutive advancing session for the Dollar Index, which is near a two-week high.

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FX Daily, April 19: Markets Calm But Lack Immediate Focus

2018-04-19

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2018-04-19

A light news stream and less trade rhetoric lend the equity markets a positive impulse amid a strong US earnings season while leaving the dollar narrowly mixed. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5% and is up 1% for the week with one session left. It would be the second consecutive weekly advance. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 has edged higher for a third consecutive session. It is up about 0.7% for the week, and if sustained, would extend the advance...

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 16/04/2018 – USD/CHF, USD/JPY, EUR/GBP, GBP/USD, USD/CAD

2018-04-19

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2018-04-19

USD/CHF, April 19
The USDCHF pair breached 0.9675 level and closed the daily candlestick above it, to open the way to achieve more rise in the upcoming sessions, paving the way to head towards 0.9790 as a next main station. Therefore, the bullish trend will be suggested, supported by the EMA50, noting that breaking 0.9675 and holding below it will push the price to test 0.9581 level before determining the next trend clearly.

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What’s next for the Canadian dollar after the BOC decision

2018-04-18

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The Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged on April 18 and didn’t offer any kind of clear indication about the May meeting. Adam Button from ForexLive talks about what’s next for Poloz,the BOC and the Canadian dollar.

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