Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
My articlesMy offerMy siteAbout meMy books
Follow on:LinkedINTwitterSeeking AlphaAmazon
Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

Lessons for traders courtesy of Amazon’s Jeff Bezos

2018-10-03

by

Jeff Bezos is the richest person in the world. Can his lessons for business, work for you in your trading? On September 19th, 2018, Jeff Bezos gave a somewhat rare interview at the Air Force Association Air and Space Conference. Although his comments were from his experience from running Amazon and his space company Blue …

Read More »

Cool Video: Bloomberg Clip from Discussion on Emerging Markets

2018-10-03

by

2018-10-03

In my first television appearance since joining Bannockburn Global Forex, I joined Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua on the Bloomberg set. In this nearly 2.5 min clip, we talk about the Indonesia rupiah and the dollar's move above the IDR15000 level for the first time since the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 02: Greenback Advances

2018-10-02

by

2018-10-02

The US dollar is rising against most of the major and emerging market currencies. The Swiss franc and the Japanese yen are the exceptions and are holding their own. Global equities are mixed. Asia, excluding Japan, was mostly lower, with 1.2% losses in Taiwan and South Korea and 2.5% drop in Hong Kong and in the H-shares that trade there.

Read More »

A Word About the Q2 COFER Report

2018-10-02

by

2018-10-02

US Dollars in Billions, Q2 2017 - Q2 2018
The IMF reports the most authoritative currency allocation of global reserves at the end of every quarter with a quarter delay. Invariably, an economist, strategist, or journalist is inspired to write why some data nugget confirms the demise of the dollar as the dominant currency.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 01: NAFTA Deal Struck, Softer EMU Mfg PMI, and Firm Greenback Starts Week

2018-10-01

by

2018-10-01

The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso are extending its pre-weekend gains on news that a new NAFTA deal (US-Mexico-Canada Agreement USMCA) has been struck. Against most of the other major and emerging market currencies, the US dollar is firm. China's mainland and Hong Kong markets are closed for a national holiday.

Read More »

Fed Delivers, Market Yawns

2018-09-29

by

2018-09-29

The Federal Reserve did what it was widely to do. The fed funds target range was lifted 25 bp to 2.00-2.25%. Three-quarters of Fed officials anticipate a hike in December. The market had discounted around an 80% chance. The Fed sticks with the three rate hikes in 2019 and one in 2020. The year-end rate in 2021 is the same as in 2020.

Read More »

Attention London FX and crypto traders

2018-09-29

by

Join me in London on Nov 14: http://bit.ly/forexlivelondon

Read More »

FX Daily, September 28: Dollar Remains Firm While Italy is Punished

2018-09-28

by

2018-09-28

The US dollar's post-Fed gains have been extended, though the upside momentum appears to be stalling. Japan's Nikkei advanced 1.35% on the back of the yen's declines and reached its highest level since 1991. Chinese shares (A and H) rallied amid reports that MSCI and FTSE-Russell are boosting Chinese shares in their benchmarks.

Read More »

Canada can win the global trade war

2018-09-27

by

How Canada can come out on top. Adam Button from ForexLive.com talks with BNNBloomberg. LET’S CONNECT! Facebook ► http://facebook.com/forexlive Twitter ► https://twitter.com/ForexLive Google+ ► https://plus.google.com/+Forexlive Homepage ► http://www.forexlive.com/

Read More »

FX Daily, September 26: The Dollar Index has Fallen Four of the Five Times the FOMC met this Year

2018-09-26

by

2018-09-26

The US dollar is trading with a softer bias in tight ranges. The euro and sterling have been confined to yesterday's ranges, while the greenback briefly traded above JPY113.00 for the first time in two months. The South African rand and Turkish lira are leading the most emerging market currencies higher. Asian equities moved higher, led by Hong Kong, which returned from yesterday's holiday.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 25: Greenback Remains at the Fulcrum

2018-09-25

by

2018-09-25

The major currencies are mixed in quiet turnover. Most of the European currencies are firmer, while the dollar-bloc currencies, yen and Swiss franc are softer. Emerging market currencies are steady to higher, though there are a few exceptions in Asia, where the Indonesian rupiah and the Chinese yuan are off about 0.3%, while the Indian rupee and Malaysian ringgit are around 0.2% lower.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Next Week’s Drivers

2018-09-24

by

2018-09-24

It is a testament to the Federal Reserves communication and the evolution of investors' understanding that we can say that the rate hike that the central bank will deliver is not as important as what it says. A rate hike is a foregone conclusion. According to the CME's model, there is about an 85% chance of December hike discounted as well.

Read More »

Portfolio Re-Balancing and the Dollar

2018-09-22

by

2018-09-22

Boosted by tax reform, deregulation, and strong earnings growth, US equities have motored ahead, leaving other benchmarks far behind. As the Great Graphic here shows, most of the other benchmarks are lower on the year. The S&P 500 (yellow line) is up 8.8% for the year before the new record highs seeing seen now, while the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 from Europe (purple line) is still off 1.7%.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 20: The Mixed Performance Makes it Difficult to Talk about The Dollar

2018-09-21

by

2018-09-21

Sometimes the dollar is the key mover, but sometimes, like today, it seems to be the fulcrum, reflecting disparate moves among other currencies.  While the euro is at two-month highs, the yen is near two-month lows.   The euro is bouncing off two-month lows and the 100-day moving average against sterling.   Most emerging market currencies are advancing against the dollar today. 

Read More »

FX Daily, September 19: Dollar Trades Heavily as Emerging Markets Follow China

2018-09-19

by

2018-09-19

One would not have a clue looking at global equities that there has been a sharp escalation in trade tensions in the past 36 hours. As was well tipped the US imposed a 10% tariff on $200 bln of Chinese goods and indicated that the tariff will rise to 25% at the start of next year. President Trump also threatened to quickly follow up with another tariff on $267 bln of Chinese goods it retaliated.

Read More »

Dollar Slips, though Emerging Markets Trade Heavily

2018-09-18

by

2018-09-18

The US dollar is beginning the new week on a soft note, as China threatens not to accept the invitation for trade talks in Washington if the US imposes new tariffs on $200 bln of its goods, which the Wall Street Journal reports could come as early as today. Meanwhile, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is giving back half of the 2.5% rally seen in the second half of last week.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Dollar Pullbacks Remain Shallow as Rate Differentials Widen

2018-09-17

by

2018-09-17

The trajectory of monetary policy in the US and Europe has been fairly clear. There is practically no doubt that the Fed will hike rates on September 26. Despite softer than expected PPI and CPI figures, the market has become more confident of another move in December. The Federal Reserve's balance sheet unwind reaches its maximum velocity of $50 bln a month in Q4.

Read More »

The new neutral for central banks

2018-09-14

by

You’ve heard of the neutral rate but the Fed is now talking about the long-term neutral rate and the short-term neutral rate. The implication is that the FOMC (and likely others) are going to hike more in 2019 than we thought and the US dollar will benefit. Adam Button from Forexlive.com talks about neutral rates, … Continue...

Read More »

FX Daily, September 14: Dollar Losses Extended

2018-09-14

by

2018-09-14

The US dollar remains on the defensive after retreating yesterday.  Its losses against the most of the major and emerging market currencies are being extended today.  The combination of softer US inflation coupled with a less dovish than expected ECB, a Bank of England lifting growth forecasts, while warning that a Brexit without an agreement could spur higher mortgage rates, and a more aggressive rate hike by Turkey conspired to force the dollar...

Read More »

FX Daily, September 13: Vulnerable To Disappointment

2018-09-13

by

2018-09-13

There is an eerie calm in the markets ahead of the highlight for the day and week. The central banks of the eurozone, UK, and Turkey hold policy meetings, and the US reports August CPI. The greenback is a mostly firmer, with the Australian dollar as the notable exception. On the one hand, we would note that is it higher for the fourth consecutive sessions, after finding some support near $0.7100 earlier in the week. 

Read More »