Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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Forex Technical Analysis: 5 currencies in 5 minutes

2017-01-25

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Some key levels in the major currency pairs are broken today There were some key levels broken (or held) in some of the major currencies pairs in trading today. Knowing what they are and why they are important is helpful for your trading as they help define bullish or bearish bias as well as risk. … Continue reading...

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FX Daily, January 25: Dollar is on the Defensive Despite Firmer Rates

2017-01-25

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2017-01-25

FX Performance, January 25 2017 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar is softer against nearly all the major currencies. Participants appear to be growing increasingly frustrated with emerging priorities of the new US Administration. They want to hear more details and discussion of the tax reform, deregulation, and infrastructure plans.

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Great Graphic: How a Strong Dollar Weighs on Net Exports

2017-01-25

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2017-01-25

Contributions of Exports and Imports to GDP Growth
Investors appreciate that a strong dollar can impact US growth through the net export component of GDP. The dollar's appreciation can push up the price of exports and lower the cost of imports. The St. Louis Fed took a look at how the strong dollar from 2014 to the beginning of 2016 impacted the net export function of GDP.

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Levels in play through Australia’s CPI

2017-01-25

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Technical levels in play through the Australia’s 4Q CPI.

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Forex trading video: The alternative facts in your forex trading

2017-01-24

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…and how to sift through them The phrase “alternative facts” are the latest and greatest buzz words thanks to Pres. Trumps counselor, Kellyanne Conway. The phrase is misleading in certain situations. How can there be alternative facts with regard to crowd size or something that is fairly obvious from a visual observation (or even factual …

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FX Daily, January 24: UK Supreme Court Requires May to Submit Bill on Brexit to Parliament

2017-01-24

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2017-01-24

BritainFirst
As widely expected, the UK Supreme Court ruled that Parliament approval is needed to trigger Article 50 start the divorce proceedings with the EU. The Court decided by an 8-3 majority that a bill needs to be submitted to both chambers, but that the approval of the regional assemblies (e.g. Scotland, Northern Ireland) is not necessary.

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The US Dollar Is Now Overvalued Against Almost Every Currency In The World

2017-01-24

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2017-01-24

World Map
In September 1986, The Economist weekly newspaper published its first-ever “Big Mac Index”. It was a light-hearted way for the paper to gauge whether foreign currencies are over- or under-valued by comparing the prices of Big Macs around the world. In theory, the price of a Big Mac in Rio de Janeiro should be the same as a Big Mac in Cairo or Toronto.

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UK Supreme Court Decision: Anti-Climactic?

2017-01-24

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2017-01-24

May
Sterling retreats on court ruling but key supports hold and it recoups initial loss. The US dollar is recovering with the help of firming US yields. Investors are still anxious for details of new US government's tax, deregulation, and infrastructure investment plans.

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FX Daily, January 23: Dollar’s Pre-Weekend Retreat Extended in Asia Before Stabilizing in Europe

2017-01-23

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2017-01-23

FX Performance, January 23 2017 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar had a poor close in the North American session before the weekend as investors appear increasing anxious about the new US Administration's economic policies and priorities.With no fresh details emerging over the weekend, some stale dollar longs exited. The dollar stabilized in the European morning, but broader risk appetites were not rekindled, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600, led by financials, was sold to its lowest level this month.

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Weekly Speculative Position: CHF getting stronger, net shorts stable

2017-01-23

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2017-01-23

Speculative Positions Commitments of traders Swiss Franc - 23.01
Speculators are net short CHF with 13.7K contracts against USD. This is nearly unchanged. On the other side, the USD/CHF is falling.

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FX Weekly Preview: The Challenging Week Ahead

2017-01-23

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2017-01-23

thought
Investors will finally be able to focus on what the new US President does rather than what he says. The UK Supreme Court decision is expected, but it may not be the driver than it may have previously seemed likely. The dollar-yen rate does not appear to be driven by domestic variable as much as US yields and equities. Prices not real sector data may be the key for the euro.

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FX Weekly Review, January 16 – 21: Dollar Still Appears to Carving out a Bottom

2017-01-22

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2017-01-22

US Dollar/Swiss Franc FX Spot Rate, January 21
The US dollar turned in a mixed performance over the past week. The technical indicators continue to support our expectation that after correcting since mid-December, following the Fed's hike, the dollar is basing.

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Cool Video: Bloomberg’s Daybreak – Dollar Correction

2017-01-21

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2017-01-21

Bloomberg Marc Chandler
I was on Bloomberg's Daybreak: Americas today. The issue at hand was about the dollar's losses since the start of the year. I suggest that the correction actually began a day or so after the Federal Reserve hiked rates in mid-December. I noted that the correction was not just about the dollar but also interest rates.

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FX Daily, January 20: Trump Day

2017-01-20

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2017-01-20

inauguration
The dollar peaked against the yuan two days after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates in the middle of last month. We argue that that is when the market correction began, not at the turn of the calendar. Despite claims that China's currency is dropping like a rock, it has actually risen for the fifth consecutive week. That is the longest rising streak for the yuan since early 2016.

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Great Graphic: Trade and Tariffs-End of an Era?

2017-01-20

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2017-01-20

Trade-weighted average global tariff rate and trade
This Great Graphic was tweeted by the Financial Time's John Authers, who got it from @fathomcomment. The green line is the inversion of global trade (right-hand scale). The blue line is a trade-weighted average global tariff rate. What the chart shows is that since 1990, the decline in the average tariff coincided with an increase in trade (remember green line is inverted).

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Draghi Lets Steam out of Euro

2017-01-19

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2017-01-19

eurodeflate
US reported stronger than expected series of data, including a large drop in weekly jobless claims for the week of the next NFP survey. Draghi remained dovish, with key phrases retained. Euro needs to break $1.0575 now to confirm a top is in place. Markets still uncertain ahead of the start of the new Administration.

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FX Daily, January 19: Dollar Gives Back Most of Yellen-Inspired Gains

2017-01-19

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2017-01-19

FX Performance, January 19 2017 Movers and Shakers
While the US 10-year yield is unchanged, the dollar is consolidating its gains against the yen in a relatively narrow range of about half a big figure below JPY115.00. It has seen its gains pared more against the euro and sterling, where most of Yellen-inspired gains have been unwound. Sterling found support near $1.2250 and was bid up to $1.2335 by early in the European sessions.

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FX Daily, January 18: Markets Stabilize, Awaiting Fresh Cues

2017-01-18

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2017-01-18

FX Performance, January 18, 2017 Movers & Shakers
The US dollar has stabilized after yesterday's bruising. From a fundamental perspective, little has changed. After hard exit signals from the UK government sent sterling down from $1.2430 on January 5 and 6, to below $1.20 at the start of the week, the pound rallied back to almost $1.2430 yesterday amid "sell the rumor buy the fact" activity.

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Great Graphic: Is the Pound Sterling?

2017-01-18

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2017-01-18

Sterling's 2.75% rally today is the biggest advance in more than eight years. The UK government has done a good job of managing expectations. Over the last week or so, Prime Minister May and Chancellor of the Exchequer Hammond has made it clear that the intention was a "clean break" from the EU.

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A look at the EURUSD as it tests the retracement target and stalls

2017-01-17

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The EURUSD has moved sharply higher but over the last few hours has stalled against a key resistance area. After a big daily move, it becomes harder for a currency pair to extend higher – at least on the day. Traders who rode the trend are happy to take profit. If profit taking can be … Continue...

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