Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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FX Daily,April 16: Market Struggles for Direction

2018-04-16

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2018-04-16

The Syrian strike over the weekend, and the official indication that "mission accomplished" and that was a limited one-off strike has spurred little market reaction. There is one more loose end, as it were, and that is that the US has indicated it will announce additional sanctions on Russia for its involvement in Syria's chemical weapon use. The ruble is volatile but slightly firmer to start the week, and while dollar-bond yields are firmer, the...

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FX Weekly Preview: Still Looking for Terra Firma

2018-04-16

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2018-04-16

The weekend strike by the US, British and French forces against Syria appear to have been conducted in ways that minimize the risks of escalation by Russia. The limited nature of the strike and objectives suggest that the impact on the constellation of forces in Syria will be minimal. There is unlikely to be much of an impact in the global capital markets, though thin markets in early Asia could see a knee-jerk effect.

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Great Graphic: Loonie Takes Big Step toward Technical Objective

2018-04-15

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2018-04-15

For a little more than two weeks, we have been monitoring the formation of a possible head and shoulders top in the US dollar against the Canadian dollar. The neckline broke a week ago. It is not uncommon for the neckline to be retested after the break. That was what happened yesterday. The US dollar recorded an outside down day yesterday.

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FX Daily, April 13: Markets Struggle to Find Footing while News Stream Improves

2018-04-13

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2018-04-13

It had looked to many investors that world was headed for a trade war and an escalating risk war in Syria. But now it seems less clear. US President Trump's rhetoric on trade took a more constructive tone, and a divided Administration leaves Syria in a bit of a limbo. US equities rallied yesterday, and Asia and European bourses are advancing today, but the conviction may not be particularly strong.

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Great Graphic: Aussie-Kiwi Approaches Trendline

2018-04-13

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2018-04-13

Today is the fifth consecutive session that the Australian dollar has weakened against the New Zealand dollar. It has now fallen to test a three-year old trendline that we show on the Great Graphic, composed on Bloomberg. The last leg down in the Aussie actually began last October, and through today's low, it is off by a little more than 7%.

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FX Daily, April 12: Geopolitics Overshadow the Fed, Greenback Steadies

2018-04-12

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2018-04-12

The US dollar steadied at lower levels, while equities eased as investors remain focused on the preparations to strike Syria and still tense rhetoric on trade. Reports indicate that the US and France have moved warships into the area and the UK has moved submarines within striking distance as well.

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FX Daily, April 11: Mr Market Waits for Other Shoe to Drop

2018-04-11

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2018-04-11

Between Syria, trade tensions, and the US special investigator into Russia's attempt to influence the US election, market participants are cautious as they wait for another shoe to drop. The US equity market recovery yesterday has short coattails as markets in Asia and Europe struggle. Bond yields are mostly softer, and the US 10-year note yield is dipping back below 1.80%.

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Understanding the Latest International Reserve Figures

2018-04-11

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2018-04-11

At the end of every quarter, the IMF publishes the most authoritative reserve data with a three-month lag. On Good Friday, the IMF published Q4 17 reserve holdings. A recent article on Bloomberg played up an economist's forecast that euro reserves would increase by $500 bln over the next couple of years. A review of the reserve data may help us evaluate such a claim, which if true, could have important implications for international investors.

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FX Daily, April 10: XI’s Day, but Not So Good for Putin

2018-04-10

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2018-04-10

It did not look so good. The S&P 500 fell about 1.65% in the last couple hours of trading yesterday paring its gains. Press reports indicated that President Trump's lawyer's office, house and hotel were the subject of search warrants. A Bloomberg report citing people who knew said that China would consider devaluing the yuan.

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US Jobs Data Optics Disappoint, but Signal Unchanged

2018-04-10

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2018-04-10

The US jobs growth slowed in March more than expected, but the details of the report suggest investors and policymakers will look through it. The poor weather seemed to have played a role. Construction jobs fell (15k) for the first time since last July, and the hours worked by production employees and non-supervisory worker slipped.

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FX Daily, April 09: Asian and European Equities Shrug Off US Decline

2018-04-09

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2018-04-09

US shares slumped before the weekend amid concern that Trump Administration was prepared to escalate the trade tensions with China. However, cooler heads are prevailing, and there is a recognition that the conflict is still in the posturing phase. No sanctions have gone to into effect. As the Economist points out, nearly 100 of the Chinese products the US proposed slap a tariff on are not currently being exported to the US. The US has a 60-day...

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Great Graphic: Has the Dollar Bottomed Against the Yen?

2018-04-07

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2018-04-07

The US dollar appears to be carving a low against the yen. After a significant fall, investor ought to be sensitive to bottoming patterns. The first tell was the key reversal on March 26. In this case, the key reversal was when the dollar made a new low for the move (~JPY104.55) and then rallied to close above the previous session high.

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FX Daily, April 06: Trade Trumps Jobs

2018-04-06

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2018-04-06

Trade and equity market volatility, which are not completely separate, continue to dominate investors' interest. Many had come around to accept that while trade tensions were running high, it was likely to be mostly posturing. This conclusion may have helped lift the S&P 500 around 3% over the past three sessions.

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Why the Canadian dollar should be higher right now

2018-04-05

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Adam Button from ForexLive talks with BNN about the outlook for NAFTA talks and why the market isn’t giving the Canadian dollar enough love. LET’S CONNECT! Facebook ► http://facebook.com/forexlive Twitter ► https://twitter.com/ ForexLive Google+ ► https://plus.google.com/+Forexlive Homepage ► http://www.forexlive.com/

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FX Daily, April 05: Investors Find Comfort in Brinkmanship Blinks

2018-04-05

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2018-04-05

Global equity markets are higher, following the stunning recovery in the US yesterday, where the S&P 500 rallied 76 points or 3% from its lows to it highs, near where it finished. The outside up day is seeing following through today. Without China and Hong Kong, which are on holiday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a three-day down draft and closed 0.55% higher.

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FX Daily, April 04: Trade Specificities Rattle Markets

2018-04-04

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2018-04-04

Late yesterday, the US announced that specific tariffs and goods that would be targeted for intellectual property violations. China had warned of a commensurate response and earlier today made its announcement. This sent reverberations through the capital markets, driving down equities, corn and soybean prices (subject to Chinese tariffs). The US dollar was sold, especially against the yen, euro, and sterling.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 02/04/2018 – Gold, WTI Oil Futures, GER30 Index, USD/JPY

2018-04-04

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2018-04-04

USD/CHF, April 04
The USDCHF pair attempted to breach 0.9581 level yesterday but it returns to move below it now, which keeps the bearish trend scenario valid until now, supported by stochastic move within the overbought areas, waiting to head towards 0.9488 as a first target.

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FX Daily, April 03: Markets in Search of Footing

2018-04-03

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2018-04-03

The sell-off in US tech shares dragged the market lower. The S&P 500 fell for the sixth session of the past eight and closed below the 200-day moving average for the first time in a couple of years. The sell-off in Asia and Europe is more muted. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped less than 0.1%. The Hang Seng, an index of H-shares, and Korea's KOSDAQ managed post gains.

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Cool Video: Bloomberg Double Feature

2018-04-03

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2018-04-03

BBG Video
Many are still celebrating the Easter holiday today, but not Tom Keene and Lisa Abramowicz and the Bloomberg team. They hosted me on Bloomberg TV today. As is often the case, the discussion was broad, covering the pressing economic and financial issues.

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Marc Chandler Says Dollar Is Trading Down Like Buckets

2018-04-02

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Apr.02 -- Marc Chandler, Brown Brothers Harriman global head of currency strategy, discusses the rising dollar and using the yield curve as an indicator for economic expansion. He speaks with Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Lisa Abramowicz on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

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