Category Archive: 4) FX Trends
FX Daily, November 26: Some Are More Equal Than Others
Overview:Â Neither optimistic comments from Federal Reserve Chairman, that the economic glass is more than half full, nor a seemingly positive spin on the weekend fall calendar between Chinese and US officials have succeeded in deterring some profit-taking today.
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FX Daily, November 25: Hong Kong, China, and UK Election Hopes Fan Modest Risk-Taking
Overview:Â The combination of the victory of the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong and an apparent concession by China on intellectual property rights is helping bolster risk appetites to start the week. Equities are higher. Hong Kong's Hang Seng led Asia Pacific equities with a 1.5% gain, the second biggest this month. Korea and India's bourses also gained more than 1%.
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FX Weekly Preview: Is Conventional Wisdom Too Optimistic?
There have been three general issues that the macro-fundamental picture has revolved around this year: trade, growth, and Brexit. On all three counts, conventional wisdom seems unduly optimistic, and this may have helped dampen volatility. A series of signals suggest that the US and China remain far apart in trade negotiations.
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FX Daily, November 22: Europe’s Flash PMI Disappoints and Hong Kong Shares Advance Ahead of Sunday’s Election
Overview:Â Equities in the Asia Pacific managed to mostly shrug off the drag of the losses in US equities yesterday. China and India could not escape the pull, but most other bourses were higher, led by Singapore and Hong Kong. It was the second consecutive week that the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell. The US and European benchmarks are paring this week's small losses.
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FX Daily, November 21: Markets Hear What it Wants from China’s Chief Negotiator, but HK maybe New Obstacle
Overview:Â The strongest signs to date that even phase one of a US-China trade deal is proving elusive helped spur the risk-off mood that had already been emerging. The S&P 500 fell by the most in a month (~-0.40%) yesterday, closing the gap from last week we had noted was the risk, and follow-through selling was seen in Asia Pacific and Europe.
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FX Daily, November 20: Dollar Snaps Back
Overview:Â The idea that a US-China trade deal is proving more elusive than the agreement in principle on October 11 implied is being seized upon to spur what we suspect is an overdue round of profit-taking in global equities. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a three-advance, with over 1% declines in South Korea and Australia.
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FX Daily, November 19: Hong Kong Stocks Rally as Stand-Off Continues
Overview: The run-up in equities continues to be the dominant development in the capital markets. Although the Japanese and South Korean bourses fell, the rise in Australia, China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan underpin the MSCI Asia Pacific Index. The Hang Seng's gains (1.5% on top of yesterday's 1.3% rise) is notable as the situation on the ground remains intense and unresolved.
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FX Daily, November 18: Sterling Shines in Subdued Start to the New Week
Overview:Â Equities in Europe and the US look to extend their six-week rally, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gets back on the winning way after stumbling last week. Despite the escalation of the conflict in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng rose 1.35% to lead the region and recoup a chunk of last week's 4.8% slump. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 puts the European benchmark within spitting distance of the four-year high set recently.
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FX Daily, November 15: Market Runs with US Line that US-China Deal is Close
Comments by US presidential adviser Kudlow playing up the prospects of a trade agreement between the US and China, with other reports suggesting a key call be held today, is helping to underpin sentiment into the weekend. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index pared this week's loss today, with China the only main market not participating, despite the PBOC's unexpected injection of CNY200 bln of the Medium-Term Lending Facility.
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FX Daily, November 14: Unexpected German Growth Fails to Buoy the Euro
Overview:Â Rising trade anxiety and disappointing economic reports from the Asia Pacific region helped unpin the profit-taking mood in equities, while bond yields continued to pullback. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 are in the red for the fourth time in the last five sessions. Germany reported a surprise 0.1% expansion in Q3, but it has done little for the DAX or the euro.
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FX Daily, November 13: Investors Temper Euphoria
Overview:Â The recent rise in equity markets and backing up in yields spurred many observers to upgrade their macroeconomic outlooks rather than the other way around. Yet we continue to see may worrisome signs. It is not just trade, though, of course, that is part of it. Sentiment itself is fragile and will likely follow prices.
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SNB’s Jordan: Swiss franc remains highly valued
Foreign exchange market remains fragile. Negative rates, readiness for intervention still necessary. Danger of a worsening international situation remains large. Imbalances in Swiss real estate market still persist.
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FX Daily, November 12: Farage Declares Truce with Tories after being Offered a Peerage, Underpins Sterling
Global capital markets are calm as investors look for a new catalyst. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped back after posting its first back-to-back decline in a month. All the equity markets were higher, but Australia. The Nikkei, Kospi, and Taiex led the advance with about a 0.8% gain. European shares closed firmly near session highs yesterday, even if still lower on the day, and there has been some follow-through buying today.
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FX Daily, November 11: Dollar Consolidates and Equities Follow Asia Lower
Overview:Â Escalating violence in Hong Kong and the continued fall in Chinese producer prices weighed on equities in Asia Pacific trading. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has risen nearly 7% during the five-week rally and is off to a weak start this week. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell around 2.6%, its biggest loss in three months, and China's CSI 300 was off 1.75%. Nearly all the local markets fell but Australia.
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FX Weekly Preview: Caution: Prices Diverging from Macro Drivers
Sometimes the news drives the markets and but now it seems that the markets are driving the news. The dramatic swing in market sentiment from fearing a repeat of Q4 18 and the pessimism of World Bank/IMF forecasts have been cast aside for a few data points and a tease from the world's two largest economies that an agreement to begin a de-escalation process not just extending the third tariff truce.
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FX Daily, November 8: Risk Appetites Satiated Ahead of the Weekend
The capital markets are consolidating the recent moves ahead of the weekend. Equities are paring this week's gains, though the Nikkei, which was closed on Monday, extended its advance for the fourth consecutive session. Despite the profit-taking today, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the fifth week. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is snapping a five-day rally, but it is closing in on the fifth consecutive weekly advance.
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Two emerging FX trades for an end to the trade war
Adam Button from ForexLive discusses three currencies to avoid as the trade war ends along with a developed market trade and two emerging market currencies that could have big runs in the months ahead.
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Two emerging FX trades for an end to the trade war
Adam Button from ForexLive discusses three currencies to avoid as the trade war ends along with a developed market trade and two emerging market currencies that could have big runs in the months ahead. LET’S CONNECT! Facebook â–ş http://facebook.com/forexlive Twitter â–ş https://twitter.com/ForexLive Forexlive Homepage â–ş http://www.forexlive.com/
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FX Daily, November 7: Trade Optimism Boosts Sentiment but Weighs on the Dollar
Indications that a phase one agreement between the US and China would include rolling back some existing tariffs is boosting risking appetites, sending stocks higher, and pushing up yields. However, this appears to be simply a restating of China's views rather than a new breakthrough. The dollar is paring its recent gains. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the fifth time in six sessions to reach its best level since August 2018.
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FX Daily, November 6: Markets Catch Collective Breath as Dollar Consolidates Yesterday’s Advance
Overview:Â Investors seem to be catching their collective breath today, and the global capital markets are consolidating recent moves. A notable exception is the Chinese yuan, which has continued to strengthen, and the dollar has slipped back below CNY7.0. Asia Pacific equities were mixed, and the four-day advance in the regional benchmark stalled today.
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