Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
My articlesMy offerMy siteAbout meMy books
Follow on:LinkedINTwitterSeeking AlphaAmazon
Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

Europe’s Woes Multiply

2018-06-08

by

2018-06-08

The Markit group that provides many of the PMI surveys noted with today's reports that the eurozone outlook has "darkened dramatically." This makes for a poor backdrop for the ECB, which meets next week. However, with price pressures recovering from the Easter-related distortions, the ECB is still on track to finish its asset purchases at the end of the year. This seems largely taken for granted.

Read More »

Greenback Corrects Lower

2018-06-08

by

2018-06-08

The consensus narrative is that with rising inflation it is understandable that next week's meeting is live and that the confirmation of such has lifted the euro to ten-day highs, dragging the dollar broadly.  However, to accept this is to accept the debasement of language.  Until now, we dubbed central bank meeting that could result in action as "live."  For example, given that the Fed has not changed interest rates since the hiking cycle began in...

Read More »

More Color on Japanese Capital Flows and the Euro

2018-06-07

by

2018-06-07

The euro put in a low on May 29 a little above $1.15. That is nearly a 10.5 cent decline since the three-year high was set in mid-February. The thing that is difficult for investors and analysts to get their head around is that the speculators in the futures market, who as seen as proxies for trend-followers and momentum traders, continue to carry large euro exposure.

Read More »

USDJPY keeps a bullish bias, but can it break the 200 day MA

2018-06-06

by

As the market trades up and down, traders need to look for technical clues that give bias clues. For the USDJPY, the pair traded up and down but the lows found support against a prior resistance level. That kept the bullish bias. However, there is also some key technical resistance that is stalling the run …

Read More »

Weekly Technical Analysis: 04/06/2018 – USD/CHF, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, WTI

2018-06-06

by

2018-06-06

USD/CHF, June 06
The USDCHF pair managed to break 0.9850 level and closed the daily candlestick below it, which supports the continuation of our bearish overview efficiently in the upcoming period, paving the way to head towards 0.9723 level as a next station, noting that the EMA50 supports the expected decline, which will remain valid for today conditioned by the price stability below 0.9870.

Read More »

EURUSD trades between defined technical support and resistance

2018-06-05

by

The EURUSD traded between defined technical support and resistance in trading on June 5th. The support was defined by swing lows and the 38.2% retracement. The resistance was defined by the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart. Traders will be looking for a break one way or the other going forward into the new …

Read More »

Dollar jumps on better US data, but gains are limited.

2018-06-05

by

The dollar was goosed higher on the back of some decent data. The PMI, ISM and JOLTs data all beat expectations. Good news for the US economy. The Nasdaq moved to new record highs. The S&P and the Dow are less impressed. In the debt market, the yields remain in the red which is interesting. … Continue reading...

Read More »

FX Daily, June 5: Sterling Jumps Ahead, While US Equities Have Small Coattails

2018-06-05

by

2018-06-05

The British pound is benefiting from the stronger than expected service and composite PMI readings, which among other things are serving as a distraction from the government's seemingly tortured approach to Brexit and the sales of part of its stake in RBS for a GBP2 bln loss.  Financials are a drag on the FTSE 100 today (~-0.5% while other major bourses are higher).

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Macro Matters Now, Just Not the Data

2018-06-04

by

2018-06-04

The main concerns of investors do not arise from the high-frequency data that are due in the coming days. Last week, the somewhat firmer than expected preliminary May CPI for the EMU failed to bolster the euro. The stronger than expected US jobs data, even if tipped by the President of the United States, and the pendulum of market sentiment swinging back in favor of two more Fed rate hikes this year did not trigger new dollar gains.

Read More »

Great Graphic: Euro Bulls Stir but Hardly Shaken

2018-06-02

by

2018-06-02

Euro has fallen 10.5 cents since mid-February. Net speculative longs in the futures market remain near record. Gross long euros have actually increased over the past month.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 01: Ironic Twists to End the Tumultuous Week

2018-06-01

by

2018-06-01

The week is ending quite a bit different than it began. The main banking concern is not in Italy but in German, where shares in Deutsche Bank shares fell to a record low yesterday, and S&P Global cut its credit rating one step to BBB+ (third-lowest investment grade).

Read More »

FX Daily, May 31: Don’t Confuse Calmer Markets with Resolution

2018-05-31

by

2018-05-31

The global capital markets that were in panic mode on Tuesday stabilized yesterday, and corrective forces have carried into today's activity. However, the underlying issues in Italy and Spain are hardly clarified in the past 48 hours. Moreover, the US push on trade is intensifying again.

Read More »

USDJPY stalls at overhead resistance but keeps most of the gains

2018-05-30

by

With the US stock market rebounding and yields also higher, the USDJPY is higher on the day. However, overhead resistance is putting a lid on the rally so far. Can that lid be broken?

Read More »

FX Daily, May 30: Italian Reprieve, Euro Bounces, Trade Tensions Rise

2018-05-30

by

2018-05-30

After what could be described as a 15-sigma event yesterday in the Italian bond market, a reprieve today has seen the euro recover a cent from yesterday's lows. While the political situation in Italy is worrisome, many observers suspect that the new banking rules exacerbated the illiquidity that explains outsized moves.

Read More »

EURUSD corrects to 100 hour MA and stalls

2018-05-30

by

The EURUSD corrected to the 100 hour MA and stalled. Is that the peak for the correction?

Read More »

What Happened Monday?

2018-05-29

by

2018-05-29

Italian politics dominated Monday's activity. Initially, the euro reacted positively in Asia to news that the Italian President had blocked the proposed finance minister. A technocrat government would be appointed to prepare for new elections.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Political Crises in Europe Rivals Economic Data and Trade to Drive Capital Markets

2018-05-28

by

2018-05-28

The end of the Greek assistance program that allowed them to keep their primarily official creditors whole, and the broad expansion in the eurozone, was supposed to usher in a new period of convergence. Monetary union was once again feted as a success, and some observers were forecasting a substantial increase in the euro as a reserve asset.

Read More »

Trade Like A Pilot and You Will Never Crash

2018-05-25

by

My favorite question to ask new traders is this: What do you do when you make a mistake in trading? The answer to that question tells you everything you need to know whether they’re going to make money. LET’S CONNECT! Facebook â–º http://facebook.com/forexlive Twitter â–º https://twitter.com/ForexLive Google+ â–º https://plus.google.com/+Forexlive Homepage â–º http://www.forexlive.com/

Read More »

FX Daily, May 25: US Dollar Loses Momentum Ahead of the Weekend

2018-05-25

by

2018-05-25

The euro and sterling were sold through yesterday's lows in Asia, but rebounded in Europe, with the help of mildly constructive data in the form of the German IFO and details of UK Q1 GDP. The IFO climate measure matched the April reading and thereby snapped a five-month slide. The expectations component slipped, but the current assessment improved.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 24: Greenback Pushes Lower

2018-05-24

by

2018-05-24

The US dollar is pulling back after recording new highs for the year against the euro and sterling. The greenback is lower against nearly all the major currencies, but the Canadian dollar. It is also softer against most of the emerging market currencies. The chief exception is the Turkish lira. Yesterday's 300 bp rate hike could only stem the rot momentarily and the lira's 2.3% decline today, wipes out 2/3 of the annual rate increase.

Read More »