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Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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FX Weekly Preview Warning: Treacherous Week Ahead

2018-06-18

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2018-06-18

All three of the major central banks met last week and confirmed that monetary policy would continue to diverge for at least another year. The clarity of the trajectory of monetary policy reduces the impact of high-frequency economic data.

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FX Daily, June 15: Dollar Slips While Escalating Trade Tensions may Roil Markets

2018-06-15

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2018-06-15

The Dollar Index edged higher to its best level this year before turning down as market attention shifts from central banks to trade tensions. Reports confirm that the US will go ahead with the 25% tariff on $50 bln of Chinese goods and provide some specificity today. The final list is expected to be similar to the goods that had been identified in the preliminary list, with an emphasis on electronic goods, apparently on ideas that they may have...

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FX Daily, June 14: Dollar Punished Ahead of ECB

2018-06-14

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2018-06-14

The US dollar is slumping against all the major currencies in the aftermath of the hawkish Federal Reserve. In fact, the inability of the greenback to hold on to the gains scored in the initial reaction to the Fed's hike, optimism on the economy, and the signal of hikes in September and December, foretold today's push lower.

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FX Daily, June 13: Dollar Edges Higher Ahead of FOMC

2018-06-13

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2018-06-13

The US dollar is trading firmly as the FOMC decision looms. In many ways, the actionable outcome of this meeting has hardly been in doubt this year. By all accounts, the Fed will deliver its second hike of the year today.

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FX Daily, June 12: US-Korea Summit Fails to Impress Investors

2018-06-12

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2018-06-12

The US dollar initially rallied in early Asia ahead of the US-North Korea summit but has subsequently shed the gains and more. As North American dealers return to their desks, the dollar is lower against nearly all the major currencies, but the yen and Canadian dollar. 

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FX Weekly Preview: Busy Week Ahead

2018-06-11

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2018-06-11

The week ahead is eventful. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan hold policy meetings. This would make for a busy week by themselves, but there is more. Trade tensions are likely to escalate further, if the US, as scheduled provides a list of $50 bln of Chinese goods that will face another 25% tariff for intellectual property violations.

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Dollar and Yen Rise Amid Heightened Anxiety

2018-06-10

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2018-06-10

With what promises to be an acrimonious G7 meeting, from which the isolated US President will depart early, and a broadening pressure in emerging markets, the US dollar turned better bid late yesterday and is recovering further today.

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Europe’s Woes Multiply

2018-06-08

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2018-06-08

The Markit group that provides many of the PMI surveys noted with today's reports that the eurozone outlook has "darkened dramatically." This makes for a poor backdrop for the ECB, which meets next week. However, with price pressures recovering from the Easter-related distortions, the ECB is still on track to finish its asset purchases at the end of the year. This seems largely taken for granted.

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Greenback Corrects Lower

2018-06-08

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2018-06-08

The consensus narrative is that with rising inflation it is understandable that next week's meeting is live and that the confirmation of such has lifted the euro to ten-day highs, dragging the dollar broadly.  However, to accept this is to accept the debasement of language.  Until now, we dubbed central bank meeting that could result in action as "live."  For example, given that the Fed has not changed interest rates since the hiking cycle began in...

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More Color on Japanese Capital Flows and the Euro

2018-06-07

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2018-06-07

The euro put in a low on May 29 a little above $1.15. That is nearly a 10.5 cent decline since the three-year high was set in mid-February. The thing that is difficult for investors and analysts to get their head around is that the speculators in the futures market, who as seen as proxies for trend-followers and momentum traders, continue to carry large euro exposure.

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USDJPY keeps a bullish bias, but can it break the 200 day MA

2018-06-06

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As the market trades up and down, traders need to look for technical clues that give bias clues. For the USDJPY, the pair traded up and down but the lows found support against a prior resistance level. That kept the bullish bias. However, there is also some key technical resistance that is stalling the run …

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 04/06/2018 – USD/CHF, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, WTI

2018-06-06

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2018-06-06

USD/CHF, June 06
The USDCHF pair managed to break 0.9850 level and closed the daily candlestick below it, which supports the continuation of our bearish overview efficiently in the upcoming period, paving the way to head towards 0.9723 level as a next station, noting that the EMA50 supports the expected decline, which will remain valid for today conditioned by the price stability below 0.9870.

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EURUSD trades between defined technical support and resistance

2018-06-05

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The EURUSD traded between defined technical support and resistance in trading on June 5th. The support was defined by swing lows and the 38.2% retracement. The resistance was defined by the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart. Traders will be looking for a break one way or the other going forward into the new …

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Dollar jumps on better US data, but gains are limited.

2018-06-05

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The dollar was goosed higher on the back of some decent data. The PMI, ISM and JOLTs data all beat expectations. Good news for the US economy. The Nasdaq moved to new record highs. The S&P and the Dow are less impressed. In the debt market, the yields remain in the red which is interesting. … Continue reading...

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FX Daily, June 5: Sterling Jumps Ahead, While US Equities Have Small Coattails

2018-06-05

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2018-06-05

The British pound is benefiting from the stronger than expected service and composite PMI readings, which among other things are serving as a distraction from the government's seemingly tortured approach to Brexit and the sales of part of its stake in RBS for a GBP2 bln loss.  Financials are a drag on the FTSE 100 today (~-0.5% while other major bourses are higher).

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FX Weekly Preview: Macro Matters Now, Just Not the Data

2018-06-04

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2018-06-04

The main concerns of investors do not arise from the high-frequency data that are due in the coming days. Last week, the somewhat firmer than expected preliminary May CPI for the EMU failed to bolster the euro. The stronger than expected US jobs data, even if tipped by the President of the United States, and the pendulum of market sentiment swinging back in favor of two more Fed rate hikes this year did not trigger new dollar gains.

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Great Graphic: Euro Bulls Stir but Hardly Shaken

2018-06-02

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2018-06-02

Euro has fallen 10.5 cents since mid-February. Net speculative longs in the futures market remain near record. Gross long euros have actually increased over the past month.

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FX Daily, June 01: Ironic Twists to End the Tumultuous Week

2018-06-01

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2018-06-01

The week is ending quite a bit different than it began. The main banking concern is not in Italy but in German, where shares in Deutsche Bank shares fell to a record low yesterday, and S&P Global cut its credit rating one step to BBB+ (third-lowest investment grade).

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FX Daily, May 31: Don’t Confuse Calmer Markets with Resolution

2018-05-31

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2018-05-31

The global capital markets that were in panic mode on Tuesday stabilized yesterday, and corrective forces have carried into today's activity. However, the underlying issues in Italy and Spain are hardly clarified in the past 48 hours. Moreover, the US push on trade is intensifying again.

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USDJPY stalls at overhead resistance but keeps most of the gains

2018-05-30

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With the US stock market rebounding and yields also higher, the USDJPY is higher on the day. However, overhead resistance is putting a lid on the rally so far. Can that lid be broken?

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