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Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler

He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.

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FX Daily, August 19: China’s Rate Reform Helps Markets Extend End of Last Week Recovery

2019-08-19

by Marc Chandler

2019-08-19

Overview: China announced some changes in its interest rate framework that is expected to lead to lower rates. This helped lift equity markets, which were already recovering at the end of last week from the earlier drubbing. Chinese and Hong Kong shares led the regional rally with 2-3% gains. The Nikkei gapped higher for the third time in six sessions, and the first two were followed by lower gaps.

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FX Weekly Preview: A Vicious Cycle Grips Markets

2019-08-19

by Marc Chandler

2019-08-19

The capital markets are in their own doom loop. Poor data from Germany and China, coupled with the escalation of the US-China trade dispute and rising tensions in Hong Kong spur concerns about the risks of a global recession. Interest rates are driven lower, and curves flatten or go inverted, spurring more concern about the outlook. The problem is that it is not clear how this vicious cycle ends.

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First a European recession, then everywhere else

2019-08-17

Adam Button from ForexLive outlines about how a drop in the euro will lead to cascading consequences for the global economy. LET'S CONNECT! Facebook ► http://facebook.com/forexlive Twitter ► https://twitter.com/ForexLive Forexlive Homepage ► http://www.forexlive.com/

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First a European recession, then everywhere else

2019-08-17

Adam Button from ForexLive outlines about how a drop in the euro will lead to cascading consequences for the global economy. LET’S CONNECT! Facebook ► http://facebook.com/forexlive Twitter ► https://twitter.com/ForexLive Forexlive Homepage ► http://www.forexlive.com/

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FX Daily, August 16: Markets Take Collective Breath Ahead of the Weekend

2019-08-16

by Marc Chandler

2019-08-16

Overview: The global capital markets are ending the tumultuous week calmly, but it is far from clear that is will hold long. Next week's flash PMIs have potential to disappoint, and there is risk of new escalation in the US-China trade conflict as the PRC threatens to take action to countermeasures to the new US tariffs.

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FX Daily, August 15: Animal Spirits Lick Wounds

2019-08-15

by Marc Chandler

2019-08-15

Overview: It took some time for investors to recognize that the scaling back of US tariff plans was not part of a de-escalation agreement. There was an explicit acknowledgment by US Commerce Secretary Ross that there was no quid pro quo. The US tariff split was more about the US than an overture to China.

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FX Daily, August 14: Markets Paring Exaggerated Response to US Blink

2019-08-14

by Marc Chandler

2019-08-14

The US cut its list of Chinese goods that will be hit with a 10% tariff at the start of next month by a little roe than half, delaying the others until the mid-December. This spurred a near-euphoric response by market participants throughout the capital markets. However, as the news was digested, it did not seem as much of a game-changer as it may have initially.

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FX Daily, August 13: Investors Remain on Edge

2019-08-13

by Marc Chandler

2019-08-13

Overview: The confrontation in Hong Kong and the fallout from the Argentine primary over the weekend join concerns the conflict between the two largest economies and slower growth to force the animal spirits into hibernation. Global equities remain under pressure. Japan's Topix joined several other markets in the region to have given up its year-to-date gain.

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FX Daily, August 12: Yen Remains Bid, While Macri’s Loss in Argentina Weighs on Struggling Mexican Peso

2019-08-12

by Marc Chandler

2019-08-12

Overview: China again tried to temper the downside pressure on the yuan, and this appears to be helping the risk-taking attitude. Many centers in Asia were closed today, including Japan and India, though most of the other equity markets advanced modestly, including China, Korea, and Australia. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 opened firmer but is staddling little changed levels unable to stain any upside momentum.

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FX Weekly Preview: Macro Deterioration

2019-08-12

by Marc Chandler

2019-08-12

The US-China tensions remain the dominant driver of investor risk appetites. President Trump has repeatedly accused China of manipulating its currency on twitter, and finally Treasury Secretary Mnuchiin acquiesced after China failed to prevent the dollar from rising above CNY7.0.

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FX Daily, August 8: PBOC Helps Stabilize CNY, while US Equity Recovery Lifts Sentiment

2019-08-08

by Marc Chandler

2019-08-08

Overview: The challenges for investors have not gone away, but a combination of factors has helped stabilize the capital markets. The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate above CNY7.0, but not as high as anticipated, and this has seen the yuan strengthen modestly today. Meanwhile, the strong recovery in the S&P 500 has spilled over and helped lift global equities.

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Yes, the Dollar is Above CNY7.0, but No, the Sky is Not Falling

2019-08-08

by Marc Chandler

2019-08-08

The world's two great powers are at loggerheads. Chinese nationalism meet your sister, US nationalism. Import substitution strategy of Made in China 2025 meet your cousin Make America Great Again. Paradoxically, or dialectically, the similarities are producing divergent interests that extend well beyond economics and trade policy.

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FX Daily, August 7: Three Asian Central Banks Surprise Investors

2019-08-07

by Marc Chandler

2019-08-07

While investors keep a watchful eye on the dollar fix in China (a little firmer than projected) and tensions with the US, two other developments compete for attention. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the central banks of India and Thailand surprised the market with lower rates. The RBNZ cut by 50 bp, India by 35 bp, and the fact that Thailand cut at all was unexpected.

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FX Daily, August 6: Markets Stabilize with Help of CNY Fix in Muted Turnaround Tuesday

2019-08-06

by Marc Chandler

2019-08-06

Overview: The escalation of the economic conflict between the world's two largest economies is dominating the capital markets. The US cited China as a currency manipulator after the North American markets closed, ensuring the troubled start to Asian trading after the US equities and yields plummeted on Monday. The VIX surged to 25%, doubling in the past week.

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Cool Video: The implication of CNY7.0+

2019-08-06

by Marc Chandler

2019-08-06

President Trump's tweets last week announcing the end of the tariff truce signaled a new phase in the US-Chinese tensions. China responded as did investors. I was fortunate to have been invited to the Bloomberg set to discuss the issues of the day.

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Calling China a Currency Manipulator Is a Toothless Move, Says Bannockburn’s Chandler

2019-08-06

by Marc Chandler

Aug.05 — Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, discusses the U.S. calling China a currency manipulator and China’s possible reaction. He speaks on “Bloomberg Markets: China Open.”

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Market Expects U.S. Retaliation, Escalation as Yuan Weakens: Chandler

2019-08-05

by Marc Chandler

Aug.05 — Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, discusses the market implications of China letting the yuan slip to its lowest level in more than a decade. He speaks with Bloomberg’s Caroline Hyde on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”

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