Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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US CPI ahead of FOMC Outcome Tomorrow

2022-12-13

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2022-12-13

Overview: The dollar softer against the G10 currencies ahead of today’s CPI report and the FOMC meeting the concludes tomorrow. Emerging market currencies are most mixed. The Hungarian forint leads the complex with around a 1% gain on news of a preliminary deal struck with the EU. The South African rand is the worst performer, off around 0.8%, as impeachment proceedings against Ramaphosa proceed. Global equities are mostly higher today after the...

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Markets Await Central Banks and Data

2022-12-12

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2022-12-12

Overview: There are two themes today. First, there has been a modest bout of profit-taking on Chinese stocks (and yuan) after last week’s surge. Second, the ahead of the five G10 central bank meeting this week a series of market-sensitive economic reports, a consolidative tone is seen in most of the capital markets. Most of the large bourses in the Asia Pacific region fell, led by a 2.2% loss in Hong Kong and 3% loss in its index of mainland shares.

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S&P 500 technical analysis before Dec FOMC meeting

2022-12-12

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We are coming near an interesting technical junction at 3937. An area of tripple support on one hand, but, on the other hand, a potential break down of a bear flag. Watch the 2hr timeframe chart for ES, the S&P 500 E-mini Futures and note the patterns and price junction as the market heads into the Big Wednesday and most important day of the end of the year, the FOMC meeting. Visit ForexLive.com for additional perspectives.

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The Yuan Puts Together its Strongest Two Week Rally in Decades and it has Nothing to do with its Trade Surplus (which Shrank more than expected)

2022-12-11

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2022-12-11

The G10 currencies traded with a heavier bias against the dollar last week. The Swiss franc was the sole exception, and it edged up about 0.25%. The thwarted putsch in Germany and the relaxation of vaccine and quarantine protocols in China were notable developments.

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Central Banks. CPI. Technicals. The major drivers in the markets this week.

2022-12-10

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A look at the technicals in play as well for the week starting December 12, 2022. The week is finally here.  The US CPI will kickstart the markets on Tuesday and that will transition into the Fed decision on Wednesday. Then when that is done, the SNB, BOE and ECB will all announce their interest rate decisions on Friday before the transition into the year end.   To better prepare, it is important to understand the key levels in play from a...

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Five G10 Central Banks Meet and US CPI on Tap

2022-12-10

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2022-12-10

Half of the G10 central banks meet in the week ahead. The Fed is first on December 14, and the ECB, BOE, Swiss National Bank, and Norway's Norges Bank meet the following day. Before turning a thumbnail sketch of the central banks, let us look at the November US CPI, which will be reported as the Fed's two-day meeting gets underway on December 13.

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Chinese Stocks Extend Rally Even Though Covid Infections Appear to be Spreading

2022-12-09

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2022-12-09

Overview: The easing of vaccination, quarantine, and some travel protocols related to Covid in China (and Hong Kong) continues to draw funds back into Chinese stocks, wherever they trade. The Hang Seng rose 2.3% today to close the week with a nearly 6.6% advance. The index of mainland companies that trade there rose 2.5% on the day for a7.3% weekly gain. The CSI 300 of mainland shares rose 1% today and almost 3.3% for the week. Japan’s 1% gain...

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HMMMMM.. What are the forex technicals saying heading into the last day of the trading week?

2022-12-09

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A technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD and NZDUSD. The USD has a lower bias heading into Friday's trading vs the EUR, AUD and NZD helped by the run lower on Thursday.  The USDJPY is more neutral as it trades between the 100/200 hour MAs With the EURUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD tilting more to the upside, what targets lie above and what are the risk levels that might hurt the bullish bias heading into the new trading day? With the USDJPY...

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The Head and Shoulders Pattern Checklist

2022-12-08

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Technical analysis uses a head-and-shoulders pattern. It forecasts a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal. The pattern is a baseline with three peaks, with the middle peak tallest. To recognize a head-and-shoulders trend reversal, grasp how they're formed. When investors lose interest, the left shoulder develops. The head develops when excitement rises and falls to the stock's prior low. The right shoulder occurs when the stock price climbs then...

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Political Developments Overshadow Economics

2022-12-08

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2022-12-08

Overview: There is nervous calm in the capital markets today.  The weakness of US shares yesterday is taking a toll today. An exception in the Asia Pacific region is the Hang Seng and the index of mainland shares that trade there, which up around 3.5% today on thUe easing of some Covid protocols.  Europe’s Stoxx 600 is off for a fifth day, its longest losing streak in nearly two months. US futures are posting minor gains. Benchmark 10-year yields...

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What technical levels are in play for some of major currency pairs today.BOC rate decision

2022-12-07

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The EURUSD is running back to the upside after moving above the 100 hour MA. The 200 hour MA stalled the fall earlier in the day giving the buyers some hope. The USDJPY is moving lower and below its 200 hour MA in early trading after the break above failed. The GBPUSD is moving higher and looks toward the 100 hour MA above at 1.2220. The USDCAD will be influenced by the BOC rate decision at 10 AM ET. The expectations are between 25 and 50...

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Risk Appetites Challenged after US Equities Tumble

2022-12-07

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2022-12-07

Overview: The sharp sell-off of US stocks yesterday as sapped the risk appetite today. Equities are being sold. Hong Kong and the index of mainland shares that are listed there led the regional decline with 3.2%-3.3% losses. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is off about 0.65% in late morning turnover, the fourth day of losses. US futures are trading with a lower bias as well. European 10-year bonds are mostly 1-2 bp firmer. The US 10-year Treasury is practically...

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The major forex currency pairs are seeing up and down price action.What to look for today?

2022-12-06

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A technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and AUDUSD after the RBA rate hike. There is up and down price action in some of the major currency pairs. In the morning forex technical report, I look at the EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and the AUDUSD after the RBA rate hike and outline the levels in play after up and down activity dominated the trading action so far today.

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Yesterday’s Dollar Recovery Questioned Today

2022-12-06

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2022-12-06

Overview: The 11 bp jump in the 10-year US yield yesterday after dropping nearly 26 bp in the previous three sessions, helped the greenback recover and took a toll on stocks. Still, the S&P 500 is above the low set on November 30 (~3939) before Fed Chair Powell's talk that day.

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MORNING VIDEO: A look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective

2022-12-05

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What levels are in play for the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD and why? The new trading week is underway, with the EURUSD making a new cycle high and backing off. The USDJPY started below its 200 day MA after closing below that key level on Friday, but has moved back higher and looks toward the 38.2% of the range last week (and high from Friday). The GBPUSD has seen up and down action in that pair today. A new cycle high was made above an upside...

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Chinese Yuan Jumps While the Dollar recovers After Losses were Extended Against the Euro and Sterling

2022-12-05

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2022-12-05

Overview: The markets remain hopeful about a re-opening in China and continue to pour into Chinese stocks on the mainland and in Hong Kong. The index of Chinese companies that trade in the US rose nearly 22.4% last week. Large bourses in the Asia Pacific region were mixed, but China and Hong Kong stand out. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is nursing a small loss for the second consecutive session. US equity futures have a slightly heavier bias. European 10-year...

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Dollar Bears have the Upper Hand

2022-12-04

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2022-12-04

Once again, the dollar was sold into a shallow bounce as the bears maintained the upper hand. There is a growing conviction that the peak in the Fed's tightening cycle is within view, despite more robust than expected jobs growth and an unexpectedly strong rise in average weekly earnings.

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Light crude oil futures technical analysis & trade idea

2022-12-04

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Setting up a short swing trade for a 3 to 1 short on CL1 (light crude oil futures). Trade oil at your own risk and visit ForexLive.com for additional perspectives.

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Opinion: DOGE Coin to 24.5 cents. 136% profit potential

2022-12-04

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This is an opinion only for potetential Doge coin buyers or holders, not investmenet advice. Doge coin is riskly and can go to zero, too. However, the technicals show me a 136% upside potential. Furthermore, fundamentally, if Elon Musk and Twitter announce at any future stage, a deeper integration for Doge coin, or some other news catalyst comes out of the top Doge coin fan named Elon Musk, who is still one of the biggest influencers in the world,...

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The Weekend Forex Report: A look back and ahead to the Dec 5, 2022 trading week

2022-12-04

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What levels are in play technically. What are the major bias and risk defining levels. In the weekend forex report, Greg Michalowski of Forexlive.come, reviews the fundamentals in play and the importance, and then outlines the bias and risk defining levels for each of the major currencies vs the USD: EURUSD (5:51) USDJPY (10:13) GBPUSD- (13:18) USDCHF (16:42) USDCAD (18:21) AUDUSD (19:52) NZDUSD (22:53)

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