Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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USDCHF falls to a swing area support target and stalls. What next?

2023-04-11

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Can the sellers keep control in the USDCHF? A day after buyers pushed the USDCHF higher and above the 200 hour MA - and failed - sellers have take control today and pushed the price of the pair back to where the price has found support buyers going back to last week's trading. Can the buyers now push the price back higher?  Or will the sellers remain in control and push the pair even lower?   IN this video, I explain the levels in play TODAY as...

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The EURUSD and the GBPUSD move back toward the 100/200 hour MAs

2023-04-11

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The USDJPY is trading back below its 100 day MA. What next? In the morning Forex technical report, I take a look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and the GBPUSD. Both the EURUSD and GBPUSD or higher, but have backtracked lower and tests the 100 and 200 are moving average areas. For the USDJPY, it had a shot above its 100 day moving average both yesterday and into today's trading, but has failed and trades below the level.  Can the sellers stay below that...

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Greenback Pares Yesterday’s Gains

2023-04-11

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2023-04-11

Overview: As the long-holiday ends, risk appetites have returned. Equities and yields are mostly higher. The dollar is seeing yesterday's gains pared. Yesterday's setback in the yen helped lift Japanese stocks, with the Nikkei advancing 1%. Several other markets in the region also gained more than 1%, including Australia and South Korea. China's CSI was an exception. It slipped fractionally. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up nearly 0.6% through the European...

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The Extended Holiday Makes for Subdued Price Action

2023-04-10

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2023-04-10

Overview: The holiday continues. In the Asia Pacific region, Hong Kong, Australia, and New Zealand, and the Philippines markets were closed. The regional bourses advanced but China.  European markets remain closed. US equity futures are narrowly mixed. The 10-year US Treasury yield is off nearly three basis points to about 3.36%. The dollar is trading quietly mostly within ranges seen before the weekend. It is slightly softer against most of the...

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Bullish S&P 500 E-mini Futures: Technical Analysis Reveals 4170+ Price Surge! Don’t Miss Out

2023-04-08

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Good Friday hinted that we are going up. The demonstrated technical analysis hints support more up for ES. Trade at your own risk and visit ForexLive.com for additional views. See possible updates within the comment section at https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/bullish-sp-500-e-mini-futures-technical-analysis-reveals-4170-price-forecast/

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US and Chinese Inflation Highlight the Week Ahead, While the Bank of Canada Stands Pat

2023-04-08

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2023-04-08

Bank shares rose in Japan and Europe for the second consecutive week, but the KBW US bank index fell nearly 2% after increasing 4.6% in the last week of March. Emergency borrowing from the Fed remains elevated ($149 bln vs. $153 bln). Bank lending has fallen sharply (~$105 bln) in the two weeks through March 29. This appears to be a record two-week decline. Commercial and industrial loans had fallen a little in the first two months of the year...

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Good Friday

2023-04-07

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2023-04-07

Overview:  Activity throughout the capital markets remains light as most financial centers in Europe are closed for the Easter celebration. Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, and Indian markets were closed as well. Still, most of the equity markets in Asia Pacific advanced, led by South Korea's Kospi's nearly 1.3% advance. The market responded favorably to news that Samsung would cut its production of memory chips and shrugged off its smaller than...

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SPX technical analysis: Anticipating 4200 next

2023-04-07

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S&P 500 index is holding well and at the bring of breaking out of the bull flag. I am targeting 4200. Visit ForexLive.com for additional views. Updates may be published in the comments section here: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/spx-technical-analysis-im-bullish-with-a-4200-target/

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VIDEO: Initial claims data readjustments from seasonals influencing the major currencies

2023-04-06

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The US initial jobless claims seasonal adjustments mainly due to volatility of covid data (still living that nightmare), sent that series to the upside and change the trend of jobs since mid-January from strong to getting weaker. There markets reacted to that data. In this video I explain the early moves in yields and then in some of the major currency pairs including the EURUSD, USDJPY and the GBPUSD.

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Fragile Calm Casts a Pall over the Capital Markets

2023-04-06

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2023-04-06

Overview: There is a fragile calm in the capital markets today ahead of the long holiday weekend for many. The poor US economic data yesterday and third consecutive decline in the KBW bank index weighed on risk sentiment. Most of the large bourses in the Asia Pacific region fell, with Hong Kong and India notable exceptions. In Japan, the Topix bank index fell 1.1% after a 1.9% decline yesterday and is now lower on the week. Europe's Stoxx 600 is...

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Party with the elite at the Networking Blitz – the opening party of #FMAS23

2023-04-05

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AUDUSD rebounds off lows but retracement stalls near resistance

2023-04-05

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The AUDUSD fell sharply today but has seen a bounce with the USD selling. The price trades between short term support and resistance. What does that look like? What's next? Those questions are answered in this trading video.

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VIDEO: USDCAD tries to end 7-day slide, but technical resistance keeps a lid on the pair

2023-04-05

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The USDCAD has rebounded today and tries to break a 7 day slide.  The correction higher, however, has run into some short term resistance that puts a lid on the pair.   In this video, I step through the daily and hourly charts of the pair and show in detail what levels are in play.  It is important as a trader to understand the "whys". This video explains so you can replicate the ideas in your trading going forward.

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What technical levels are driving the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD today?

2023-04-05

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The EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY made breaks yesterday and revisited those break levels today.  What key technical levels are driving those three major trading pairs today and why?

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Pressure Returns to Bank Shares and seems to Help Propel Gold Higher

2023-04-05

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2023-04-05

Overview: There are three themes today. First, the sharp decline in US rates seen yesterday (-14 bp on the two-year yield) on the back disappointing economic data seemed a bit exaggerated and the two-year yield has bounced back to almost 3.90% from around 3.81%. This appears to be helping the dollar consolidate today. Second, bank shares are coming under renewed pressure. The US KBW bank index fell almost 2% yesterday after a 0.5% decline on...

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Morning FX technical report: What levels are in play for some of the major currency pairs

2023-04-04

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In the morning forex technical report, I take a look at the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and AUDUSD. The EURUSD moved to a key swing target and found willing sellers.  For the USDJPY, it held support at a key swing area, and moved back above the 100 hour MA. Can it stay above that MA level now? The GBPUSD meanwhile made a break higher, but has shown some signs of some profit taking. The buyers and sellers are battling in the short term.  The RBA...

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RBA Holds Fire, Sterling Reaches Best Level since last June, and the Dollar Struggles to Find Much Traction

2023-04-04

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2023-04-04

Overview: The jump in oil prices is the newest shock and the May WTI contract is holding above $80 a barrel as it consolidates yesterday's surge. A week ago, it settled near $73.20. Australian and New Zealand bond yields moved lower, partly in catch-up and partly after the RBA stood pat. South Korean bonds also rallied on the back of softer inflation (4.2% vs. 4.8%). But European and US benchmark yields is 2-4 bp higher. The large equity markets...

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US morning technical report: USDCAD moves lower on higher oil prices

2023-04-03

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The USDCAD moved lower on the back of higher oil prices and in the process moved below the 100 day MA. That MA break shifts the sellers more in control. Stay below and traders will look toward the 200 day MA which has not been broken since August. The EURUSD moved lower and back higher. The pair is back into a swing area between 1.0866 and 1.08868.  The GBPUSD snapped back higher extending back above the 200 and 100 hour MAs in the process...

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OPEC+ Surprises while Manufacturing Remains Challenged

2023-04-03

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2023-04-03

Overview: News of OPEC+ unexpected output cuts saw May WTI gap sharply higher and helped lift bond yields. May WTI settled near three-week highs before the weekend near $75.65 and opened today near $80. It reached almost $81.70 before stabilizing and is straddling the $80 area before the North American session. The high for the year was set in the second half of January around $83. Benchmark 10-year yields are up 2-5 bp points. The 10-year US...

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Gold technical analysis: Getting ready for the big short

2023-04-01

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Is gold on the verge of a big short? Learn about the potential trading opportunity with a 7 to 1 reward vs. risk ratio in this gold technical analysis video. We discuss the triple top formation, signs of market fatigue, and the yellow channel with touchpoints at 1800 and 1975. Our strategy suggests shorting gold on the next possible spike up at 2010.8, with a final target around 1827 and a stop loss set at 2037 to manage risk. Keep in mind that...

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