Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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Don’t Believe Your Lying Eyes

2016-01-07

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2016-01-07

Chinese equities continued their precipitous decline, interrupted by the new circuit breakers, which reportedly will be suspended.  Global equity markets are also in a dramatic decline.   However, do not be misled.  Knowing the direction of China's blue chips (CSI 300) does not really help predict the direction of the US equity market, even though …

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Great Graphic: Possible Head and Shoulders in Dollar-Yen

2016-01-07

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2016-01-07

The dollar has broken down against the yen.    Although many talk about safe haven role for the yen, this seems to be a misconception.  Investors are not buying the yen to escape the turmoil of the markets.   The yen's strength itself is th...

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Is it Too Early To Talk about Annus Horribilis?

2016-01-07

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2016-01-07

One might be forgiven for believing that nail-baiting start to the year is all China's fault.  It has repeatedly for eight sessions fixed the yuan lower, including earlier today, at a seemingly accelerating pace.  The new circuit breakers, introduced on Monday, appear to be adding to the volatility.  Chinese share trading was stopped today after …

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Great Graphic: The Euro Touchstone

2016-01-06

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2016-01-06

This Great Graphic is a favorite of mine.   Created on Bloomberg, it depicts the 2-year spread between Germany and the US on two-year money (white line) and the euro-dollar exchange rate (yellow line).  The chart covers the past five years. The scales of the two time series are different so it makes little sense to … Continue reading...

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The Enigmatic Yen–It is More than an Equity Story

2016-01-05

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2016-01-05

Last year was the fourth consecutive year that the yen fell against the dollar.   However, what is obscured by this factoid is that over the past  six months, the yen has been the strongest of the major currencies, rising almost 3.2% against the US dollar. While some may be tempted to attribute the yen's strength … Continue reading...

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Focus is Squarely on Equities, Dollar and Yen Firmer

2016-01-05

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2016-01-05

Chinese shares and the yuan stabilized with the apparent help of the government's guiding hand, but global markets are still on the defensive.     The euro extended yesterday's decline through the $1.08 level.  The next immediate technical obj...

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Sweden’s Riksbank Prepares for Intervention

2016-01-04

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2016-01-04

Many countries may look with envy upon Sweden.  Growth last year was probably around 3%, with household consumption rising a little more than 2%.   Its current account surplus is 7.5% of GDP.  Exports were up by 4.3%.  Its budget deficit is around 1% of GDP.    Earlier today Sweden reported its manufacturing PMI rose to 56.0 …

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Europe’s Banking Union Begins Taking Shape

2016-01-04

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2016-01-04

The knock-on effects of the meltdown in Chinese shares and the tension among major Middle East rivals are dominating the re-opening of the global capital markets after the New Year holiday.  The US dollar has recouped its earlier losses against t...

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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2016-01-04

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2016-01-04

Brazil reports December trade later today.  Exports are expected at -1% y/y and imports at -35% y/y.  That would result in a $6.1 bln surplus, one of the largest on record.  Brazil then reports November IP Thursday, and is expected at -10.3% y/y vs. ...

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Dramatic Start to the New Year

2016-01-04

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2016-01-04

The markets are in turmoil.   Global equity markets are sharply lower, dragging bond yields down.  The risk-off move has propelled the yen sharply higher.  Its 1.4% advance has seen the dollar slump to JPY118.70, its lowest level since-mid-October. The dollar is also weaker against the euro (~0.65%) and sterling (~0.25%).  However, the dollar-bloc has been …

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Dollar: State of Play

2016-01-03

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2016-01-03

The start of a new calendar year does not necessarily mean the rise of new market drivers.   In fact, the key issues investors face at the start of 2016 are the same that dominated Q4 2015.   These issues center around pace of Fed tightening, the outlook for the world's second largest economy and its … Continue reading »

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The Dollar’s Technical Tone at the Start of the New Year

2016-01-02

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2016-01-02

The US dollar firmed against nearly all the major currencies in the last week of 2015.  The exceptions were the Antipodean currencies and the Japanese yen. The relatively high short-term yields offered Australia, and New Zealand may have attract...

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New Year Reads Five

2015-12-31

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2015-12-31



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2015 Draws to a Close

2015-12-31

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2015-12-31

Many financial centers in Asia and Europe are on holiday today, and those that are open, are experiencing a minimum of activity.  Turnover may pick up briefly in the North American morning, but conditions will remain thin and only those who need to transact will.   The US reports weekly jobless claims and the Chicago PMI.   … Continue reading...

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Yen is Lower for Fourth Year, Euro for Second

2015-12-30

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2015-12-30

The US dollar will finish 2015 higher against both the euro and yen.  Sometimes those of us who follow the economic and financial news closely can get caught up with the short-term fluctuations.  As traders that is what we do.  . Investors, however, can take a longer look at developments.   Taking a step back, … Continue reading »

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Quiet but Choppy Markets as Activity Winds Down

2015-12-30

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2015-12-30

The foreign exchange market is becalmed, leaving the US dollar narrowly mixed in uneventful and light turnover. The euro has been confined to less than a third of a cent range. Yesterday it briefly dipped below its 20-day moving average for the first time since the ECB met earlier this month. It remains in the … Continue reading »

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US-European Threat Perceptions Diverge

2015-12-30

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2015-12-30

The trajectories of the monetary policy at the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are diverging.  It is the keystone of our anticipation of further euro weakness in the year ahead.  In addition to this monetary divergence, there is a...

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Cool Video: Big Picture Dollar View and Comparative Inflation

2015-12-30

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2015-12-30

I had the privilege of talking with Scarlet Fu and Joe Weisenthal on Bloomberg TV. They gave me an opportunity to discuss my big picture view of the dollar and the Obama dollar rally. While the Reagan dollar rally was driven by the policy mix, and the Clinton dollar rally was driven by the tech … Continue reading »

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Stocks and Commodities Higher, Bonds and Dollar Mostly Lower

2015-12-29

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2015-12-29

Emerging market currencies are mostly lower, though the South African rand is slightly firmer. The Russian ruble's decline has been extended into the fourth sessions and brings its loss this month to 8.5%, the worst performing emerging market currenc...

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Three Rate Differentials to Note

2015-12-28

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2015-12-28

During this holiday period, participation is light and order-driven activity can push prices more than usual.  Investors should not let the noise and gyrations obscure the bigger picture.   We continue to place the divergence of monetary policy at the center of our narrative.     Barring a significant negative surprise from the labor market, we expect the …

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