Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

A Bloody Friday

2016-01-15

by

2016-01-15

The recovery of US shares and oil yesterday provided short-lived.  Asian shares were dragged lower with the help of Chinese equities.  The 3.5% fall in the Shanghai Composite today brings the year-to-date decline to a little more than 18%. Taiw...

Read More »

Great Graphic: S&P and Oil–Conjoined Twins or Distant Cousins that Sometimes Look Alike?

2016-01-14

by

2016-01-14

The US stock market and the oil market appear joined at the hip. The Great Graphic here, created on Bloomberg, shows the correlation of the two markets.  It is near 0.77, which is the highest since September 2013.   The correlation was condu...

Read More »

When Loons Cry: Will the Bank of Canada Cut Rates Next Week?

2016-01-14

by

2016-01-14

Speculation is mounting that the Bank of Canada will be the first major central bank to cut rates this year.  It meets on January 20.  The combination of the drop in oil prices (40% since mid-October) and the erosion of the business outlook has boosted the risk of a cut next week.   The bitumen from … Continue reading »

Read More »

Market Turmoil Continues, Risk Shunned

2016-01-14

by

2016-01-14

Investors still have not found solid footing this year.  Equity markets have continued to sink, even though China's equities advanced.  Bond markets are mostly firmer, with the US 10-year yield seemingly being drawn back toward 2.0%.  Oil prices are little changed, after Brent slipped to marginal new lows.   There is much talk about the Iranian …

Read More »

Is Sterling almost Done Being Pounded?

2016-01-13

by

2016-01-13

Sterling fell 4.25% from the high on December 28 to yesterday.  It has been confined to yesterday's range today.   After finishing below the lower Bollinger Band yesterday, it has moved back into the band today.  The Bank of England meets tomo...

Read More »

Fishing for a Bottom to Dollar-Yen

2016-01-13

by

2016-01-13

While the euro often carves out a bottom, the dollar's lows against the yen are frequently characterized by spikes.  That was the case, for example in the middle of October and late-August and the low (~JPY115.60) in December 2014.  Such a spike may ...

Read More »

Hump Day’s Bump

2016-01-13

by

2016-01-13

Many of the capital markets are enjoying reversals today.  Equity markets are mostly higher. The MSCI Emerging Market equity index is up more than 1%. Several key commodities, like oil and copper, are firmer.  Bond markets, outside the US, are firmer, with the Japan's 10-year yield slipping to new record lows slightly below 20 bp.   … Continue reading...

Read More »

The S.H.O.E. Crisis

2016-01-13

by

2016-01-13

The weak growth, large output gap, low return on capital, and a host of other economic malaise are widely recognized.  There seem to be two main schools.   One is associated with Reinhart and Rogoff.    They argue that "this time is not diffe...

Read More »

Sterling’s Slide Extended on Dismal Industrial Output Figures

2016-01-12

by

2016-01-12

A subdued Chinese session, with the yuan, little changed and local equities securing minor gains, let market participants look elsewhere for directional cues.   The new lows in oil, near $30 a barrel, and the bankruptcy filing of Glencore's US subsidiary Sherwin Alumina seemed to weigh on the dollar-bloc currencies. However, it is sterling today that …

Read More »

Great Graphic: Shanghai Composite and the S&P 500

2016-01-11

by

2016-01-11

I was canoeing recently.  When I looked that oar in the water, it looked bent.  It wasn't my equipment, and I am a novice.  I cursed to myself and quickly pulled the oar from the water.  I smiled.  It was not bent.  It was an optical illusion. ...

Read More »

Pavlov’s Dogs Spot New Currency War

2016-01-11

by

2016-01-11

The broad measures of the US dollar are trending higher, and former Fed Chair Bernanke recently refuted claims the US was engaged in a currency war. Many observers had thought that with its unprecedented asset-purchase program, the BOJ was engage...

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2016-01-11

by

2016-01-11

***From my colleague Dr. Win Thin

Read More »

Put on Your Red Shoes and Dance the Blues

2016-01-11

by

2016-01-11

Chinese shares continued last week's plunge, with the Shanghai Composite off 5.3% and the Shenzhen Composite falling 6.6%.  Both indices closed on their lows.  With the apparenthelp of officials, the onshore yuan strengthened, though the real squeeze was in the offshore yuan, which strengthened by nearly 1%, the most in four months. Excluding the Japanese …

Read More »

Last Week’s Drivers Still with the Whip Hand.

2016-01-11

by

2016-01-11

Developments in China seemed to overshadow other considerations as investors returned from the New Year.  The offices were open and desks manned, yet many did not appear to be prepared to re-deploy resources.  The lack of participation helps ...

Read More »

Weekly Speculative Positions: First Net Long Yen in 3 Years

2016-01-09

by

2016-01-09

Due to the holidays, the CFTC has been releasing its Commitment of Traders report late.  With this week's  report, the normal Friday release schedule resumes.   The latest report covers the shortened week through January 5.  It is not surpr...

Read More »

Nuanced Dollar Performance Likely in the Week Ahead

2016-01-09

by

2016-01-09

A tumultuous start of the year saw the US dollar turn in a mixed performance.   Emerging market currencies and the dollar-bloc softened.  Sterling was in this camp, losing about 1.2% against the dollar.  On the other hand, the euro, Swiss franc...

Read More »

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2016-01-08

by

2016-01-08

In the EM equity space, Qatar (+2.7%), Hungary (+1.3%), and Turkey (+1.1%) have outperformed this week, while Poland (-4.6%), Hong Kong (-4.1%), and the Philippines (-3.8%) have underperformed.  To put this in better context, MSCI EM fell -3.6% this ...

Read More »

Great Graphic: Euro Flirting with Downtrend Against Sterling

2016-01-08

by

2016-01-08

Tactically, there seems to be two broad ways a short-term participant can trade this.  The first is to buy the euro on a break out.  The second way is to fade the patter.  This entails selling the euro as it approaches  the GBP0.7500 level.     Which...

Read More »

US Growth Accelerates, Dollar Advances

2016-01-08

by

2016-01-08

US grew nearly 300k jobs in December.  The October and November jobs growth were revised up by 50k.  The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0%, even though the participation rate ticked up. If there was  a disappointment it was that hourly earnings did not rise as much as expected.  The 2.5% year-over-year growth from 2.3% …

Read More »

Markets Calm Ahead of US Jobs Data

2016-01-08

by

2016-01-08

For the first time this week, the PBOC set higher central reference rate for the yuan and Chinese shares rallied, with the apparent assistance of officials, after the circuit breakers were abandoned.    This, coupled with somewhat firmer oil pri...

Read More »