Category Archive: 8b.) Economic History

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100 Years Ago, Russian Stocks Had A Very Bad Day

Russia Equity Index to 1900
In recent months, Ray Dalio seems to be undergoing a deep midlife and identity crisis, which has not only led to dramatic recent management changes at the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater, but also resulted in some fairly spectacular cognitive dissonance, as Dalio first praised, then slammed, president Trump.

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The All In One Economic History Chart

economic history
It was tweeted out and annotated by James Plunkett and it's based on a chart from inequality economist Branko Milanovic.

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A Little History of Wages, Inflation, Treasuries and the Fed – And What We Learn from it

On this page we show that Inflation expectations and wages drive the behaviour of the Fed and Treasury bond yields. Excessive wage increases lead to recessions, more or less voluntarily caused by central bank tightening Central banks pin down the short end of the yield curve, while financial-market participants price longer-dated yields Some Emerging Markets seem to copy strong wage increases and inflation that we lived in the 1970s Quickly...

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The History of Financial Cycles



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Financial Cycles History, 1991-1998: Overspending in Germany, Asia and former communist countries, Housing Busts in Japan and Northern Europe

sweden finland
In this post we present financial and credit cycles in the history: Due a weak credit cycle, Germany was a weak economy under many other weak ones.

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Financial Cycle 1986-1991: The European and Japanese Asset Price Boom and the End of Communism

Bond yields 1980 1987 1990 1991 Italy Germany France Netherlands Spain


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Financial Cycles, the very long-term view

gdp britain us


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Business Cycles

fed hikes rates wages
The typical backstops of all improvements in business cycles are high oil prices and inflation. Inflation is mostly caused by local effects.

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Rational Expectation, Financial Cycles, Credit Cycles, Joseph Cycles

deleveraging


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Financial Cycles History: 1945-1966: Bretton Woods, strong growth in Europe

europe usa
The Bretton Woods time from 1945 to 1966 was a period of strong growth, especially in country like Germany, France, Italy and Japan.

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Financial Cycles, 1964-1971: Tiffin Dilemma and Vietnam War

bretton woods


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Financial Cycles History, 1978-1985: Oil Glut, Strong Dollar and the Lost Decade in Latin America

ch sweden finland
The next financial cycle takes from 1981 to 1990: The dollar was strong, Latin America lost a decade and the Japanese created their bubble.

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Financial Cycles History, 1990-1996: Breakdown of Communism, German Reunification, Housing Busts in Europe and Japan

A history of financial cycles: 1990-1996 the breakdown of communism leads to a boom in Germany and - due to high interest rates and inflation - to a breakdown of the European monetary system.

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Financial Cycles History, 1998-2002: The Dotcom Bubble and Bust and European and Asian Austerity as its Enabler

eurozone
In this post we present financial and credit cycles in the history: Due a weak credit cycle, Germany was a weak economy under many other weak ones.

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2002-2011: Boom of Emerging Markets and Commodities

us current account germany


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Financial Crises in Comparison, This Time is Different



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Official Eurostat Trade Balance Massively Distorted by UK Sales Of 1464 Tonnes of Gold To Switzerland

2014-04-01

by

2014-04-01

swiss gold
Somebody who follows regularly the trade balance figures from Eurostat, may have noticed a sentence that was repeated in each monthly release from the Eurostat trade statistics in 2013: “The EU28 trade surplus increased significantly with Switzerland”. The reason was massive gold sales from the UK to Switzerland.

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The “Cost-Push Inflation” Myth and the 1970s Stagflation

GDP Growth per country 1970-1973
Economists commonly explain rising oil price between 1998 and 2008 with the growth of emerging markets. We argue that the cost-push inflation of the 1970s was also a reflection of rising global demand.

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History of Wrong Forecasts by Swiss and Fed Economists: Update September 2013

2013-09-19

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2013-09-19

Aymo Brunetti as pinocchio
Or how to talk down and how to talk up an economy with wrong forecasts   American and Swiss mentalities are very different, the Americans have the tendency not to care about the future a lot, the Swiss, however, do things only after careful consideration of potential risks. This tendency can be proven economically with … Continue reading...

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