Category Archive: 1.) CHF

George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

My articles My site About me My books
Follow on:LinkedIN Twitter Seeking Alpha CFA Society EconomicBlogs

Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

Swiss Franc History: The long-term view and the comparison with gold

We establish a long-term view and history of the Swiss franc. We compare the franc with gold.

Read More »

Research on SNB & CHF

SNB Follows ECB? Pictet’s Negative SNB Interest Call

2014-06-03

by George Dorgan

2014-06-03

Pictet calls for negative interest rates in Switzerland in order to maintain rate differentials between the euro zone and Switzerland. Maintaining rate differentials would be useful for FX speculators and for money market funds that still invest in the euro zone.

Read More »

Swiss Franc, Pseudo-Mathematics And Financial Charlatanism: Extended Version

2014-05-08

by George Dorgan

2014-05-08

We have published the extended version of “The Swiss Franc, Pseudo-Mathematics And Financial Charlatanism” on the investor site Seeking Alpha. The version is longer than the one published previously.

Read More »

George Dorgan bei den Jungfreisinnigen Zürich: CHF und Schweizer Wirtschaft

snb profits and profits thanks to gold, gold price debt ceiling

The IMF Assessment for Switzerland and our Critique

2014-03-27

by George Dorgan

2014-03-27

In the 2014 assessment for Switzerland by the International Monetary Fund several sentences caught our eyes; we will contrast them with our recent critique. The most important one was that for the IMF is only "moderately overvalued", this would have no negative effect for exporters.

Read More »

The IMF Assessment for Switzerland 2014 and our critique

In the 2014 assessment for Switzerland by the International Monetary Fund, several sentences sparked in our eyes; we will contrast them with our recent critique.

Read More »

SECO expects 2.2% Swiss growth, further CHF strength ahead, understand why

2014-03-19

by George Dorgan

2014-03-19

swiss gdp forecast march 2014 seco, consuotion, business cycles expert group

The Swiss government see Swiss GDP growth at 2.2% in 2014 and 2.7% in 2015. Our estimate sees a divergence in the GDP components; we expects a lower trade surplus and higher spending. in both cases CHF should rise.

Read More »

George Dorgan bei den Jungfreisinnigen Zürich, Teil 1: CHF und Schweizer Wirtschaft

2014-02-23

by George Dorgan

2014-02-23

Am 7. Februar hat George Dorgan eine Präsentation bei den Jungfreisinnigen Zürich gehalten. Themen waren die weitere Entwicklung des Frankens, die Schweizer Wirtschaft, die SNB und die Auswirkungen der Gold- und Masseneinwanderungsinitiativen.

Read More »

2013 Posts on CHF

Blog pages last updated in the year 2014 on the Swiss Franc.

Read More »

Written in Dec 2013: FX trade of the Future is EUR/CHF Short, Not EUR/CHF Long

Fast CHF and Gold Price Movements

2013-11-01

by George Dorgan

2013-11-01

Our CHF and Gold News Bar on our home page explains daily CHF and gold price movements based on the most important fundamental indicators in a few sentences. Keep in mind that the only Swiss fundamental data that is able to move the CHF must come from the SNB and from Swiss inflation data – … Continue reading »

Read More »

Jordan 1999 paper: Why Switzerland should never peg to the Euro

In this analysis we describe why the long-lasting financial cycle of debt reduction is one key driver of the EUR/CHF exchange rate. We claim that EUR/CHF can rise more strongly only when the competitiveness of the European periphery increases. When this happens, then debt will be reduced and both public and private deficit spending will stop.

Read More »

SNB has Won the Risk Aversion Battle, When Will the Inflation Battle Start?

Swiss ZEW Investor Survey Sees 1.20 per Euro Cap Gone within 2 Years

2013-07-17

by George Dorgan

2013-07-17

The Swiss ZEW investor sentiment has risen to 4.8 by 2.6 points, news that do not influence markets. More interesting is the following: Swiss ZEW Investor Survey Sees 1.20 per Euro Cap Gone within 2 Years * Majority see no change in euro/franc for next 6 months (Reuters) – The Swiss National Bank will most … Continue reading »

Read More »

Swiss Franc History, 2012: CHF becomes a “safe” Risk-On Currency

SNB Inflation Forecasts of June 2012 and of September 2012

At the end of May, SNB president Jordan admitted that the EUR/CHF floor will not raised (here also cited by Bloomberg): “We cannot arbitrarily manipulate our currency. In an even worse crisis situation this would be disastrous and counterproductive. The floor must be legitimized. The current minimum exchange rate is realistic and has helped the Swiss economy.”

Read More »

Is EUR/CHF 1.30 Possible?

we slowly move into an inflationary environment and prices of German Bunds and US Treasuries are falling.... ECB and Fed interest rates seem to be nailed to zero for years.

Read More »