Category Archive: SNB

Negativzinsen: Unsere Schweiz als Versuchskaninchen

In der gestrigen Ausgabe der NZZ am Sonntag wird Nobelpreisträger Paul Krugman zitiert, wie er den Mindestkurs der SNB und deren Negativzinsen lobt. Die Negativzinsen seien ein „wertvolles Experiment“ meint er und „bedankt“ sich dafür sogar bei der...

Weekly SNB Intervention Update: Sight Deposits and Speculative Position

FX: As usual the SNB monetary assessment was less dovish than traders expected. The EUR/CHF fell to 1.0930 again after touching 1.10. Sight Deposits: + 0.9 bn. per week. The SNB intervened at levels that are too high. Speculative Position: The net...

Swiss balance of payments and international investment position: Q2 2016

In the second quarter of 2016, the current account surplus amounted to CHF 17 billion. This was CHF 3 billion less than in the year-back quarter, mainly due to a decline in the receipts surplus in primary income (labour and investment income).

SNB Monetary policy assessment September 2016 and Comments

The SNB inflation forecast showed a strange diversion of conditional inflation forecasts: Draghi expected inflation to rebound to 1.2% next year and 1.6% in 2018. The SNB, however, predicts 2017 inflation at 0.2% and 2018 at 0.6%. For us, one of the...

Seven years of inaction on SNB rates day won’t end this week

Anyone feeling let down that the European Central Bank didn’t do much last week might just want to skip the Swiss rate decision on Thursday to avoid more disappointment. While the Swiss National Bank may be infamous for some seismic policy changes in...

Strong Swiss growth lessens chance SNB will act

Swiss real GDP growth data surprised on the upside in Q2, expanding by 0.6% q-o-q (and 2.5% q-o-q annualised). In addition, growth in the three previous quarters was revised significantly higher. As a result, our GDP growth forecast for growth in...

Swiss National Bank: Carl Menger Prize

Despite her incredible money printing and FX purchases, the SNB has many roots in the Austrian School of Economics, a school that maintains that money printing leads to price inflation. One of the major Austrian economists was Carl Menger.

SNB Survey: 2016 Foreign Exchange Turnover

This press release presents the results for a Swiss National Bank (SNB) survey on turnover in foreign exchange and derivatives markets. The request for data was sent to 30 banks that operate in Switzerland and have a sizeable share in the foreign...

SNB Balance Sheet Now Over 100% GDP

Since 2008 the balance sheet of the Swiss National Bank has risen from 28% to 102% of Swiss GDP. Balance sheets of other central banks have strongly risen, too. But there is one big difference: The risk for the SNB is far higher, the SNB nearly...

Wir wollen nicht in die EU. Stoppt diese SNB!

Politischen Druck auf die SNB hält Wirtschaftsprofessor Aymo Brunetti für „fatal in einer derart schwierigen Situation“. Dabei macht die SNB Politik, sie führt die Schweiz in den Euro.

Swiss Sovereign Money Initiative: Reserves For Everyone

On a new website, Aleksander Berentsen rejects the Swiss Vollgeld initiative. As an alternative, he suggests the Swiss National Bank should offer transaction accounts for everybody, in line with proposals I have made earlier (see here (2016), here...

666: The Number Of Rate Cuts Since Lehman

BofA's Michael Hartnett points out something amusing, not to mention diabolical: following the rate cuts by the BoE & RBA this week, "global central banks have now cut rates 666 times since Lehman."

“Mystery” Buyer Revealed: Swiss National Bank’s US Stock Holdings Rose 50 percent In First Half, To Record $62BN

In a month, quarter and year, in which many have scratched their heads trying to answer just who is buying stocks, as both retail and smart money investors have been aggressively selling, yesterday we got the answer.

Swiss National Bank’s U.S. equity holdings hit record $61.8 billion last quarter

The value of the Swiss National Bank’s U.S. stock portfolio jumped to a record in June, helped by equity market gains. The holdings climbed to $61.8 billion from $54.5 billion at the end of March, according to calculations by Bloomberg based on the...

Swiss Franc Trade-Weighted Index, Performance Far Worse than Dollar Index

On a three years interval, the Swiss Franc had a weak performance. The dollar index was far stronger. Contrary to popular believe, the CHF index gained only 1.73% in 2015. It lost 9.52% in 2014, when the dollar strongly improved.

SNB intervenes for 6.3 billion francs in one week, total 10bn Brexit intervention

SNB intervenes for 6.3 bil francs in the week ending last Friday. Once again a record high since January 2015. The SNB raised the intervention level to 1.0850. Apparently conversion of GBP->CHF flows into GBP-> EUR flows – via EUR/CHF purchases....

Purchasing Power Parity, REER: Swiss Franc Overvalued?

Most economists, like the ones at the Swiss National Bank (SNB), claim that the franc is overvalued. Many use misleading Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) measures like the Big Mac index, the OECD index or the PPP based on consumer prices for computing...

SNB’s Maechler on Negative Rates and our Critique

At the SNB news conference, Andréa Maechler discusses the current situation of financial markets and the negative interest environment. For us, negative rates make only holding money on accounts less attractive but not cash, real estate or stocks....

News conference Swiss National Bank 2016, Fritz Zurbrügg

UBS and Credit Suisse: Capital Situation improved further: fully compliant. Domestically focused banks have capitalisation well above regulatory minimum requirements, but mortgage lending and risk exposure increased in 2015. In case of an interest...

News conference Swiss National Bank, Thomas Jordan

SNB rate remains –0.75%, SNB is ready to intervene in the FX market, Inflation will rise faster over the coming quarters, Swiss economy to grow 1% to 1.5% in 2016
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