Market Correction Risk: Why Summer 2026 Looks Risky
2026-05-04
Collapsing breadth. Stretched positioning. The worst seasonal window of the year. The worst year of the political cycle. And a war that won’t end. Market correction risk is stacking up. The S&P 500 hit a fresh record high last week. The median stock in the index is sitting 13% below its 52-week peak. That divergence is …
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4-29-26 Oil Doesn’t Peak When The Strait Reopens — It Peaks Before $SPX $USO
2026-04-29
Commodity markets are forward-looking. Traders don’t wait for events to happen—they price in expectations early. So if the market believes reopening is coming, prices top out in advance.
Most people think oil prices are driven mainly by physical supply/demand—but that’s only part of the story.
– A small portion = real producers hedging (locking in prices for future delivery)
– A tiny portion = retail traders
– A huge portion = speculators trading futures contracts
These speculators are what move prices day-to-day, reacting quickly to headlines and expectations.
When there’s a talk of reopening the Strait (or a ceasefire), oil drops immediately. This happens because traders understand: oil production hasn’t stopped, it’s just blocked from reaching the market. Example: Iran is still
The Microsoft OpenAI Marriage Is On Rocky Ground
2026-04-29
The relationship between Microsoft and OpenAI has been a defining partnership in the blooming AI technology. But the partnership terms are changing, and what was once a solid relationship may be fracturing. On Monday morning, Microsoft shares quickly fell 5% as the Bloomberg headline “OpenAI Breaks Free From Exclusive AI Pact With Partner Microsoft” sent concern …
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4-27-26 Why is the Market Ignoring the Strait?
2026-04-27
Geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have historically sent shockwaves through global markets—especially oil. Yet today, markets appear unusually calm. Why?
Lance Roberts breaks down the disconnect between rising geopolitical risk and resilient equity markets, exploring why investors may be discounting the threat, including shifting oil correlations, expectations for contained conflict, and the role of liquidity, positioning, and market structure.
Key topics include:
0:00 – INTRO
1:02 – Assassination Attempts & Strait of Hormuz News
5:12 – Markets Consolidate to Close at All-time Highs
9:44 – Data Center Plays Today
15:06 – Men, Women, & Movies
19:42 – Is the Market Ignoring the Strait of Hormuz?
29:42 – What To Do Now
36:02 – The Dollar’s Funeral Nobody Attended
Hosted
1-26-26 Bitcoin: Diversifier or Distraction – The Parker White Interview
2026-01-23
Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are once again at the center of investor debate—but for very different reasons than past cycles. Lance Roberts and special guest, DeFi Development Corp’s COO, Parker White, examine what’s been happening beneath the surface of the crypto market, including the growing divide between older and younger Bitcoin cohorts and the increasing fractionalization of crypto ownership.
Is Bitcoin’s volatility evolving in a way that allows it to function as a portfolio diversifier, especially when compared to traditional hedges, like gold? What is its potential role in an all-weather portfolio? With 2026 shaping up as a potential “catch-up trade” year, we also address why altcoins continue to lag—and whether they still have a place in diversified portfolios.
The discussion
The Money Supply Myth: Context Matters
2026-01-20
Supporting the dollar-debasement narrative is the claim that money supply growth is out of control. For instance, we saw a post claiming “US money creation is happening at an alarming pace.” Specifically, he says the money supply increased by $1.65 trillion in 2025. Quoting the money supply, as he does, in absolute dollar terms is …
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