by Lance Roberts
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| Safe havens like $GLD aren’t working because this market isn’t driven by traditional risk-off behavior. It’s driven by #crudeoil and liquidity. Energy $XLE, #gold, and defensive stocks already ran and are now being sold to fund broader de-risking. When correlations rise, everything becomes a source of liquidity. The key variable isn’t whether the war ends, but where oil prices go next. If oil normalizes, many of today’s “defensive” trades unwind. In this environment, raising cash and hedging matters more than rotating into perceived safety. 📺Full episode: Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow |
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Software Stocks: Navigating The SaaSpocalypse
2026-02-25
The recent rotation from growth to value is well documented. While the return divergences between, for instance, technology stocks and materials or industrials stocks are significant, they do not tell the whole story. There are also extreme return differentials between broad industries and their sub-industries. In this article, we address one such divergence between the …
2-23-26 The Tariff Saga Continues — What It Means for Markets
2026-02-23
The Supreme Court struck down the structure used to impose prior tariffs, ruling they must go through Congress.
The administration quickly shifted strategy: Trump imposed a temporary blanket tariff — initially 10%, later raised to 15% — set to last 150 days. This effectively resets the framework while keeping tariffs in place, just under a different legal justification.
Even with Monday’s sharp selloff, from a market perspective, this changes very little.
In this Short video, Lance Roberts breaks it down in detail.
📺Full episode: https://www.youtube.com/live/yrjjcbKwKvk?si=B33kfaFZEqzf7QvR
Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
Calm Market Waters Hide Fierce Undercurrents
2026-02-18
The price movement in the broad S&P 500 index is relatively calm. Yet the market’s undercurrent, as measured by sharply diverging returns across stock sectors and factors, is anything but calm. The current market picture we paint is well embodied by a quote from Jules Verne in 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea. “The sea was …
Venezuela Leads Energy Stocks Out Of The Gate In 2026
2026-01-06
Venezuela holds 20% of the world’s proven oil reserves. Not only are they the largest, but as shown in the Statista graphic below, they hold approximately seven times that of the United States. Despite its large reserves, Venezuela has fallen well short of its ability to supply the world. US sanctions and the significant deterioration …
The Market Risk In 2026 If Growth Projections Fail
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There is a rising market risk in 2026 that is largely overlooked as we wrap up this year. As discussed in the “Fed’s Soft Landing Narrative,” optimism about 2026 is running high. Currently, investors are pricing in strong economic growth, robust earnings, and a smooth path of disinflation. Notably, Wall Street estimates suggest a significant …
Data Center Debt: Can Oracle Hang With The Big Boys?
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Meta and Google recently borrowed a combined $55 billion in the corporate bond market. As we share below, this debt represents a new source of funding for data center expansion. Further, as shown in orange, Oracle tapped the private market for loans to secure the capital needed to sustain AI innovation and the related data …
11-12-25 December Rate Cut Back in Play
2025-11-12
Soft jobs data and falling rents point to weaker inflation ahead, setting the stage for a potential Fed rate cut in December.
In this short video, I explain why this slowdown may be exactly what the market needs to keep the rally alive.
📺Full episode:
Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
OpenAI Seeks Government Support
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Sarah Friar, OpenAI’s CFO, spoke at a Wall Street Journal technology conference to update the audience on the potential of AI. While her comments were very optimistic, she noted that OpenAI seeks continued capital inflows, highlighting the lynchpin for AI development. Her quote below, courtesy of Bloomberg, takes traditional bank and industry financing a step …
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