by Lance Roberts
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| It’s not just about rates — it’s about uncertainty + second-order effects. Oil acts like a tax on consumers. They start spending less elsewhere. That hits earnings, growth, and markets. At the same time, oil can still keep inflation elevated. So you get a messy combo: slowing growth + sticky inflation = policy paralysis. With this uncertainty, the Fed has no clear path forward. For now, they are in wait-and-see mode, watching how conflicting forces (oil, inflation, growth) play out. 📺Full episode: Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow |
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2-10-26 Opportunities Emerge at Maximum Fear, Not Peak Optimism
2026-02-10
Markets swing between hype and panic, and investors often get trapped by both.
When prices rise, narratives justify overpaying; when prices collapse, fear convinces people assets are going to zero.
In reality, markets rarely move in extremes forever.
The best opportunities tend to appear when fear is highest, not when optimism is loudest, which is why disciplined, fundamentals-focused investors look for value during selloffs rather than chasing excitement at the top.
📺Full episode: -g
Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
Speculative Narrative Unwinds
2026-02-09
For nearly two years, markets were driven by the same speculative narrative that “this time is different.” Bitcoin, precious metals, and AI-linked equities rose not only because of robust fundamentals, but also because investors clung to powerful narratives about inflation, disruption, and monetary collapse. Those speculative narratives are not only seductive but also contribute to …
2-6-26 Skate to Where the Money Is Going Next
2026-02-07
Most investors lose money by chasing whatever narrative is hot, whether it’s $SLV or $MSTR.
Real investing is about anticipating where capital will rotate next and building positions gradually, not trying to time exact bottoms or going all in.
Start small, size positions wisely, and let rotations work in your favor.
In this short video, Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz discuss why fundamentals matter more than headlines, and being early matters more than being fast.
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Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
2-5-26 Truflation vs CPI: What Inflation Is Really Doing Today
2026-02-05
Is inflation actually cooling—or just being measured differently?
Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down Truflation’s real-time inflation readings (built from millions of point-of-purchase prices across multiple providers) versus the official CPI/PCE framework, which relies far more on surveys and sampling.
We’ll also address the big caveat: neither CPI/PCE nor Truflation perfectly captures what you feel “in the shops,” because inflation varies by geography, income group, and what you actually buy. The aggregate number can hide the lived experience.
0:00 – INTRO
0:19 – Employment Data Continues to Weaken
4:10 – Finishing up Earnings Season
10:36 – Truflation & Kevin Warsh’s Hawkishness
12:36 – The Truflation Conundrum vs CPI
16:12 – The Reflation Trade vs Real Economy
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Fannie And Freddie Add Billions To The Bond Market
2025-12-18
According to Bloomberg, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been increasing the mortgages and mortgage-backed securities they hold on their own balance sheets. At their peak, before the financial crisis, Fannie and Freddie held a combined total of $1.6 trillion in mortgages. As we share below, courtesy of Bloomberg, their portfolio sizes are well below …
Bull Market Genius Is A Dangerous Thing
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During extended upward-trending markets that reward risk-takers and punish caution, everyone is a “bull market genius.” That dynamic flips investor psychology and, over time, creates a false sense of control. As the market continues to climb, risk appears to vanish, and investors believe that nothing can go wrong, leading them to take on increasing levels …
10-27-25 How Greed, Innovation & Leverage Create Every Market Bubble
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Speculative bubbles don’t appear overnight – they evolve through cycles of greed, innovation, and leverage.
In this Short video, I explain how the same cycle of easy money and speculation keeps repeating, just with new assets and fancier language each time.
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Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
Leveraged ETFs: Yet Another Sign Of Rampant Speculation
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Not only is the market chasing the most speculative of assets, but it is employing record amounts of leverage to do so. Traditionally, investors use margin loans to gain leverage. More recently, however, leveraged ETFs allow investors to get leverage in one package. To wit, the graph below, courtesy of BofA, shows that there are …
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