Warsh To Head The Fed
2026-02-02
The wait is over, and President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh to head the Federal Reserve. To better appreciate Warsh’s views on monetary policy and what they may entail for markets, we summarize a recent Wall Street Journal editorial he wrote, The Federal Reserve’s Broken Leadership. Our market-related thoughts are below the bullet points. From …
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Mainstream Expectations: Hope Vs. Potential Risk
2026-01-30
Mainstream expectations, those from Wall Street, economists, and corporate strategists, have congealed around a bullish economic outlook for 2026. Most forecasts project stronger economic growth, with contained inflation, and continued investment in technology and capital expenditure. As such, many institutional investors interpret this as a year of opportunity for markets and corporate earnings.That was a …
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The Reflation Narrative Stumbles Out Of The Gate
2026-01-26
With a 4.4% increase in economic growth in the third quarter and expectations that it could be higher in the fourth quarter, the so-called reflation narrative appears primed to dash out of the gates in 2026 at its current strong pace. The problem with assuming the reflation narrative will hold in 2026 is that it …
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A Third Of US Debt Matures In 2026
2025-12-12
We received the following question from a client: “I was at a conference where they showed that roughly a third of the currently existing US Government debt is set to mature in the next few years. How can we pay it back?” A third of the approximately $30 trillion in US Treasury debt equates to …
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Is Japan In A Death Spiral?: A Contrarian Take
2025-12-09
A day doesn’t seem to go by without a market pundit asserting that Japan is in a monetary and fiscal death spiral. It’s easy to come to such a conclusion given: Based on those stats and others, it’s easy to see why many think it’s only a matter of time before Japan’s economic system collapses. …
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Inflation In Focus: What Market Data Tells Us
2025-10-24
As we approach today’s delayed CPI report, it’s helpful to look beyond government statistics to focus on a more current and robust picture of inflation. Implied Inflation: This is derived from comparing the yields of nominal Treasury securities to Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). The graph below (bottom left) shows that implied inflation, also known …
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Liquidity Warning: SOFR Raises The Red Flag
2025-10-17
In our Daily Commentary from October 9th, we alerted readers to the fact that the Fed’s Overnight Repurchase Program was warning that the financial system was running out of a reliable store of excess liquidity. While not a concern, as we share in our quote below, it was worth monitoring. Said differently, after years of …
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