Warren Buffett’s Cash Dilemma
2024-03-04
Markets are entering the three strgonest months of the year; what if interest arwets aren’t cut? February was unusually strong for a "weak" month; what happens during Presidential Election years? Looking at Volatility risk. Markets have been up for 16 of the past 18-weeks; such activity generalluy heralds a correction. Warren Buffett’s annual letter: What do to with $160-B in cash? The dilemma of cash and valuations; cash held by corporations is at an all-time high; Buffett’s favorite metric is Market Capitalization to GDP Ratio. Why it’s hard to find "reasonably priced" companies. When investing becomes gambling; the risk of market correction coming. Dumb Money vs Smart Money: Teaching kids to invest, not gamble.
3:13 – Entering Three Strongest Months of the Year
14:31 – Warren
Are The Magnificent Seven Stocks In A Bubble?
2024-02-22
Has Nvidia become the world’s most-valuable company? The S&P is aiming at more all-time highs, but can they hold? Fed minutes reveal no rush to cut rates. The disconnect with markets’ expecting more cuts. Will the Fed reduce QT as money flows into markets? Meanwhile, markets continue to test rising trendline at 20-DMA, as consolidation continues. No reason to be bearish on markets…yet. What markets missed from Fed Minutes: the quantity of rate cuts to come. An unexpected risk: Effects of balance sheet run-off as Fed adjusts QT to manage liquidity. The unstoppable market: What is happening to Fed’s repo program; the Fed Liquidity Index. Have we returned to a bubble in Magnificent Seven stocks (and are they worthy of current valuations)? The hard part about managing portfolios: How does
How Living Longer Will Impact Retirement
2024-01-31
(1/31/24) Earnings season continues, with AMD, Google, Microsoft, and NVDIA expected to fall after turning in their reports: Earnings have been okay, but not as good as expected. After "good" reports, watch for increased volatility and rotation from the NASDAQ into the Dow. Bond prices are on the rise, yields are dropping, as Treasury announces a smaller than expected debt issuance. There’s a Trojan Horse in the proposed Childcare Tax Credit bill: a huge disincentive to work; the ugly truth about falling rates of inflation: Prices do not go back down. CPI-W vs CPI-E and how COLA is calculated. Danny’s home rehab update. "You Earned It, You Keep It" Act: what if could mean for retirees. SS Tax Repeal explainer; the evolution of SS, and repeal of SS earnings tax. Let’s fix the climate by
The Fed’s Conundrum
2023-11-17
(11/23/22) Recession will occur when employment turns sour. Fed guidance to markets: Not saying anything for a while, positioning to be "right," regardless of outcome. Why would the Fed cut rates? That’s the Fed’s conundrum. What does the Fed know that they’re not telling the rest of us? Comparing 2016-19 to now: The Fed managed rate changes and the lag effect, saving the hedge funds. What happens in an economy dependent upon credit? Higher rates creating stress in the system.
Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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This segment was excerpted from a previous live stream, which can be fully viewed here:
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The latest installment of our new
Talkin’ Turkey About Your Money
2023-11-10
Richard and Danny take it back to the Old School way, answering live Q&A.
(disclaimer)
1:04 – It’s been a tough August, September, October: historical implications of a negative quarter. You really cannot get all-in or all-out of markets. Positioning portfolios for where money will be going.
4:19 – How we do that voodoo that we do: Sell rules & stop losses.
7:25 – The frustration of current market environment.
11:30 – Allocation and Risk Attitudes: Lennar Homes
15:09 – How bad news sells
19:29 – Talking Turkey About Money
20:37 – People are spending like crazy and low, low savings rates
21:42 – Inflation is NOT transitory; the rate of change may slow, but prices and shrinkflation are not going to reverse; what WILL change is the ability for companies to raise prices.
22:26 – The Fed
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