by Lance Roberts
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A funny thing about bull markets is that investors develop a very short memory about the previous bear market. Such is why cycles repeat throughout history as lessons must be learned and relearned.
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Does AI Capex Spending Lead To Positive Outcomes?
2025-12-12
As someone who views corporate finance through a pragmatic lens, I’ve been closely watching the current surge in capital expenditures (capex) tied to artificial intelligence (AI). The question I’m addressing here is this: when a company spends massive amounts of free cash flow and takes on increasing debt, in this case for AI CapEx, does …
Money Supply Growth: A Thesis With A Fatal Flaw
2025-10-24
Recently, MarketWatch ran a provocative headline: “When the world’s largest asset manager and the Bond King both agree: Run to gold, silver, and bitcoin.” The article highlighted how Larry Fink’s BlackRock and Jeffrey Gundlach, often dubbed the “Bond King,” see deficits and “money printing” as reasons for investors to escape fiat currencies and pile into …
Corporate Profits: A Reading Without Rose-Tinted Glasses
2025-10-10
If you want to understand where we are in the cycle, skip the noise and follow profits. Corporate profits are the lifeblood of investment, hiring, and market returns. Crucially, linkage to the real economy is very tight. In the national accounts (NIPA), the BEA’s “profits from current production” (with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) …
Data Centers And The Power Grid: A Path To Debt Relief?
2025-09-19
Could data centers and the power grid be America’s next “renaissance?” With the U.S. national debt exceeding $37 trillion and interest payments surpassing defense spending, many articles have been written about the “debt doomsday” event coming. Such was a point we made in “The Debt and Deficit Problem.” “In recent months, much debate has been …
Corporate Earnings Slowdown Signaled By Employment Data
2025-09-12
The latest employment data strongly warned of a potential corporate earnings slowdown ahead. This is the first time we have warned about the employment data and its impact on corporate earnings. In May, we penned “Employment Data Confirms Economy Is Slowing.” wherein we stated: “Given the importance of consumption in the economy and that employment (production) must come …
Debasement: What It Is And Isn’t.
2025-08-01
Over the past year, financial headlines continue to flood investors with doomsday predictions about the U.S. dollar. Whether it’s social media influencers waving “dollar collapse” charts or YouTube personalities warning about debasement, the noise has become deafening. The narrative is seductive: inflation is out of control, the government is printing money, and the dollar is on its last legs.
Is Private Equity A Wolf In Sheep’s Clothing?
2025-07-25
In July 2007, just before the financial crisis erupted, Citigroup CEO Chuck Prince summed up Wall Street’s dangerous exuberance: “When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing.” Eighteen years later, Wall Street is …
China’s Economic Demise And Its Impact On The U.S.
2025-07-18
Few are as candid and historically accurate as hedge fund manager Kyle Bass when identifying structural breaks in the global economy. In a recent interview, Bass painted a grim but telling picture of China’s economic condition, warning: “We are witnessing the largest macroeconomic imbalances the world has ever seen, and they are all coming to …
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