Switzerland UBS consumption indicator November: Solid private consumption in 2018

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UBS Switzerland AG
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George Dorgan
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The Swiss consumption indicator by UBS shows improvements. The indicator is still distant from the highs in 2012. At the time stronger growth in Emerging Markets and the weaker franc helped the Swiss economy.

At 1.67 points, the UBS consumption indicator was above its long-term average in November, indicating solid consumption growth in 2018. Thanks to solid economic growth, private consumption will likely continue expanding despite rising inflation.

Zurich, 27 Dezember 2017 – The consumption indicator fell slightly in November, to 1.67 from 1.68 points. Values from previous months were revised upward by a significant margin in response to surprisingly strong summertime growth in overnight stays. New car registrations gained 1.3% in November, slightly below the average established in previous months. Looking ahead to 2018, UBS Chief Investment Office Wealth Management expects consumption to grow 1.3%. Solid economic growth and moderately rising employment should continue to support private consumption. Rising inflation has, however, adversely affected real wage growth and, by extension, private consumption growth. Moreover, third-quarter employment growth still remains below the long-term average of 1.1%, only reaching 0.5%.

Switzerland Private Consumption and UBS Consumption Indicator, November 2017 (see more posts on Switzerland Private Consumption, Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator, ) Source: ubs.com - Click to enlarge

How the UBS Consumption Indicator is calculated

The UBS Consumption Indicator signals private consumption trends in Switzerland with a lead time of one to three months on the official figures. At more than 50%, private consumption is by far the most important component of Swiss GDP. UBS calculates this leading indicator from six consumer-related parameters: new car registrations, business activity in the retail sector, the number of domestic overnight hotel stays by Swiss residents, the consumer sentiment index, employment figures and credit card transactions made via UBS at points of sale in Switzerland. With the exception of the consumer sentiment index and employment figures, all of this data is available monthly.

About UBS Switzerland AG

UBS AG is a Swiss global financial services company, incorporated in the Canton of Zurich, and co-headquartered in Zurich and Basel. The company provides wealth management, asset management, and investment banking services for private, corporate, and institutional clients worldwide, and is generally considered to be a bulge bracket bank. In Switzerland, these services are also offered to retail clients. The name UBS was originally an abbreviation for the Union Bank of Switzerland, but it ceased to be a representational abbreviation after the bank's merger with Swiss Bank Corporation in 1998. The company traces its origins to 1856, when the earliest of its predecessor banks was founded.

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