Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator November: Subdued private consumption in 2017 despite solid November figures

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UBS Switzerland AG
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George Dorgan
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The Swiss consumption indicator by UBS shows improvements. The indicator is still distant from the highs in 2012. At the time stronger growth in Emerging Markets and the weaker franc helped the Swiss economy.

Zurich, 28 December 2016 – The UBS Consumption Indicator rose to 1.43 points in November from 1.39. As already seen in prior months, the rise is due mainly to domestic tourism. According to the latest available figures, Swiss tourists provided for a happy ending to the summer season with an increase in the number of hotel stays in October of 4.9% year-on-year. Besides domestic tourism, the Swiss automobile market also blossomed in the end. The increase in new vehicle registrations by 0.4% compared to the already strong same month last year presented car dealers with a golden November.

Private consumption vs. UBS Consumption Indicator The current value of 1.43 points lies within the long-term average, which indicates solid growth for the coming months. However, private consumption is likely to grow less robustly over the coming year in general. After employment in the third quarter did not decline, the situation on the labor market in 2017 should relax. Nevertheless, it is to be expected that braking effects will predominate. The impacts of the collapse in oil prices at the start of this year and the aftermath of last year’s exchange rate shock will subside, and for the first time since 2011 inflation could again be positive. The associated drops in purchasing power and the structural challenges of the retail trade may well obstruct dynamic development of private consumption in the coming year.

Switzerland Private Consumption and UBS Consumption Indicator, YoY 2016 (see more posts on Switzerland Private Consumption, Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator, ) Switzerland Private Consumption and UBS Consumption Indicator - Click to enlarge

How the UBS Consumption Indicator is calculated

The UBS Consumption Indicator signals private consumption trends in Switzerland with a lead time of one to three months on the official figures. At more than 50%, private consumption is by far the most important component of Swiss GDP. UBS calculates this leading indicator from six consumer-related parameters: new car registrations, business activity in the retail sector, the number of domestic overnight hotel stays by Swiss residents, the consumer sentiment index, employment figures and credit card transactions made via UBS at points of sale in Switzerland. With the exception of the consumer sentiment index and employment figures, all of this data is available monthly.

About UBS Switzerland AG

UBS AG is a Swiss global financial services company, incorporated in the Canton of Zurich, and co-headquartered in Zurich and Basel. The company provides wealth management, asset management, and investment banking services for private, corporate, and institutional clients worldwide, and is generally considered to be a bulge bracket bank. In Switzerland, these services are also offered to retail clients. The name UBS was originally an abbreviation for the Union Bank of Switzerland, but it ceased to be a representational abbreviation after the bank's merger with Swiss Bank Corporation in 1998. The company traces its origins to 1856, when the earliest of its predecessor banks was founded.

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