Monthly Archive: January 2013

Sinn: The Euro Crisis Is Not Solved

2013-01-31

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2013-01-31

Hans Werner Sinn
In 2012, austerity, the commitment of ECB and Fed and the weak euro helped to reduce peripheral yields, current account and partially fiscal deficits. The euro zone has possibly won the war. Now the weak countries need to win the peace, namely generate growth via competitiveness says 

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Net Speculative Positions, Week January 28

2013-01-28

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2013-01-28

Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com   It is difficult to talk about the US dollar’s performance over the past couple of weeks.  There has been a key divergence.  The dollar has been trading higher against most currencies except the euro and those currencies, like the Swiss franc or the Scandis, that move in the euro’s …

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SNB Sight Deposits Rise by 100 Million CHF, Week January28

2013-01-28

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2013-01-28

SMI vs DAX January 2013
While FX traders and some hedge funds are long EUR/CHF and some short covering happened, sight deposits show a different picture. They rise again, this time with 100 million francs (see details) in one week. Risk-off investors are not convinced yet that the euro crisis is finished, while other investors keep profit of the rising SMI...

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Let Cyprus go Iceland! or Make Russians Believe it Were

2013-01-27

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2013-01-27

Iceland success story
While UBS  and a certain Mr Draghi are still warning that a bankruptcy would...

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Global Purchasing Manager Indices, Update January 25

2013-01-26

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2013-01-26

Global PMIs December 3, 2012
Manufacturing PMIs are considered to be the leading and most important economic indicators.  After a strong slowing in summer 2012 and the Fed’s QE3, this is the fourth month of improvements in global PMIs   January 25th Expansion-contraction ratio: There are 15 countries that show values above 50 and 14 with values under 50. Positive-negative-change ratio: …

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Deflationary Risks? Comparing Swiss, Swedish and Norwegian Inflation and Exchange Rates

2013-01-24

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2013-01-24

House Prices Germany 7 cities vs. Greece
When the Swiss National Bank introduced the 1.20 lower limit, it wanted to eliminate the deflationary risks for Switzerland. For a certain period, namely when a global recession was looming in Autumn 2011, and the Swiss franc was hovering around 1.10, this risk was really present. In this post we would like to know if …

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SNB Sight Deposits Rise by 2 Bln. Francs, M3 by 10 Bln., Week January 21

2013-01-21

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2013-01-21

swiss m1 vs. gdp and credit 2008-2012
While FX traders and some hedge funds go long the EUR/CHF, sight deposits at the SNB rise by 2 bln. francs (see details) in one week, M3 by nearly 10 bln. (nearly 2%) francs in one single month (see

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Net Speculative Positions, Week January 21

2013-01-21

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2013-01-21

Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The technical tone of the major foreign currencies deteriorated in recent days.  It appears to be a cascading effect.  Favorite risk-on currencies, like the dollar-bloc, failed to participate in the move against the greenback.  The Swiss franc took the dubious honor of being the weakest currency last week, losing 2.2% …

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Pictet on the sudden EUR/CHF Appreciation

2013-01-19

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2013-01-19

While we blamed FX traders, that were waiting months for some good European news to push down the CHF, Pictet finds some more explanations.

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Franc-ly we’re delighted, said the SNB

2013-01-17

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2013-01-17

Here’s the Swiss franc at its weakest level against the euro since the Swiss National Bank put its cap into place in September 2011: The euro hit SFr1.2485 on Thursday, up 3.3 per cent since the 10th of January and back to levels not seen since May 2...

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SNB Profit 6 Billion CHF over the Year, 10.9 Billion Loss in Q4/2012

2013-01-17

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2013-01-17

snb q4/2012 income from gold
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) obtained a profit of around 6 billion francs for the year 2012 (full statement).  The profit was reduced from 16.9 billion francs between Q1 and Q3 2012, which means that in Q4/2012 the bank had a loss of around 10.9 billion francs. The profit in gold fell from 6.2 billion …

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SNB possibly Started some Sterilization, FX traders are gaming

2013-01-14

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2013-01-14

sterilization
While markets are long EUR/CHF and FX traders are playing currency games against each other, the SNB had to buy additional 1 billion CHF of reserves last week. In the first January week they possibly started...

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Epic Shift in Monetary Policy: Japan goes SNB, Nuclear Option

2013-01-14

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2013-01-14

According to Bloomberg, at least prime minister Abe is taking the nuclear option and is following the SNB in buying foreign assets. This is a huge change in global monetary policy.

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Net Speculative Positions, Week January 14

2013-01-14

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2013-01-14

Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com   There have been some large moves in the foreign exchange market in recent days.  The euro posted its largest rally in four months last week.  The yen has fallen to its lowest level against the dollar since June 2010 and extended the declining streak to nine consecutive weeks, something …

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The history of wrong forecasts by Swiss economists: details

2013-01-13

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2013-01-13

SECO Estimates for 2009 2010
Or how to talk down an economy with wrong forecasts Read the introductory post here, if you haven’t yet. Details of SECO forecasts   In the following we give the details about the SECO, the Swiss government economic agency’s, forecasts.   Forecast Q1/2009 Sharp recession in 2009, gradual stabilization in 2010 Bern, 17.03.2009 – Economic …

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The wonders of the FX universe

2013-01-11

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2013-01-11

Dark matter may more commonly be associated with physics, space exploration and Professor Brian Cox, but, according to Deutsche Bank’s FX strategist George Saravelos, there’s a good chance that it’s becoming a recognisable force in the world of forei...

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