Will Inflation Data Pump Market Momentum? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-10-11

(10/11/22) Oil prices were over sold and due for a rally, which came to fruition, and we took off some energy exposure on Monday. OPEC cuts and tapping the SPR is creating a forecast for higher oil prices, yet. If oil prices stabilize at $85-87/bbl and work off their overboughtedness, we could then see another rally up to $100/bbl by the end of the year. However, oil prices have declined over all from their peak earlier this year. We’re looking for a slight decline in CPI in this week’s report, which would indicate a slight softening in inflation. But year-over-year comparisons are going to be stark. If inflation is cooling indeed, we’re expecting the Fed to ease up on rate hikes. Markets are retesting lows, and earnings reporting will begin on Monday, with 70% of the S&P reporting next

2022-10-08

(10/7/22) Big Jobs numbers come out today amid a growing climate of negativity on the part of CEO’s, anticipating layoffs in coming months; workers are essentially receiving pay cuts, thanks to effects of wages failing to keep up with inflation. Why older workers make better employees. Pandemic Homebuyers are having buyer’s remorse; another example of lizard-brain investors not thinking-through a transaction; more and more American’s are being priced out of the housing market; Sellers’
"Endowment Bias" on home pricing; the Inverse-Cramer ETF; the 4% Rule is based on faulty assumptions; the importance of creating a guaranteed source of income in retirement; another look at reverse mortgages.
3:13 – Looking for Layoffs
14:21 – Pandemic Homebuyers’ Remorse
30:25 – The Inverse-Cramer ETF

2022-10-04

(10/4/22) Will companies be able to pass along increased costs to consumers? As the prelude to earnings season begins to rev-up, CEO confidence is down; what will their outlooks reveal? Has the bounce begun? The short squeeze we predicted has arrived; expect rally to 3,800 to 3,900; Q3 GDP could provide some life to markets. While 70% of companies surveyed by KPMG say ESG has improved their earnings, 59% are pausing or reversing their ESG stance. How concerned is the Fed about Pension funds? The BOE’s margin call loop: When Pension funds run out of collateral (a financial crisis doesn’t have to be credit-related). Investment decisions are based upon models (see "Margin Call," the movie). Why this is not like 2008: More persons are working longer; what happens if/when they all pull their

2022-09-29

(9/29/22) Markets have been working to hold onto support established back in June; yesterday’s news of the Bank of England resuming bond purchases to bail out pension funds provided the octane needed for a rally upward, and fueled expectations the Fed would capitulate sooner than later in its rate hike campaign. Markets could open weaker this morning, following yesterday’s sharp rally. Can markets confirm higher ground established on Wednesday? We’re seeing a continuing need for re-pricing and re-valuations; so, any rally that materializes should be used to trim losers and raise cash.

Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton
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