by Lance Roberts
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| Markets often become complacent during strong rallies, with investors focusing on bullish narratives while ignoring potential risks. Last year, the dominant story was AI, while this year the debate has shifted to whether massive CapEx spending will actually translate into real revenue growth. However, unexpected events—such as geopolitical tensions with Iran and rising oil prices—can quickly challenge those narratives and force markets to reprice risk. In this Short video, Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz discuss how markets are driven by narratives, but those narratives can shift rapidly—making disciplined risk management critical even when markets appear stable. 📺Full episode: Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow |
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3-2-26 Is the Market Topping? Iran, AI Chaos & the Signals You Can’t Ignore
2026-03-02
Is the stock market topping — or just catching its breath?
This week, equity markets face a triple threat: an Iranian strike rattling geopolitical risk assets, an Anthropic AI capability announcement that hammered IBM, CrowdStrike, financials, and SaaS stocks, and a technical picture showing the S&P 500 slipping below both its 20- and 50-day moving averages.
Lance Roberts breaks down the bull and bear cases in full.
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo
0:00 – INTRO
1:05 – Market Over Reaction to Iran Hits?
6:54 – The Potential for Building a Market Topping
13:27 – Impact of Oil Prices on Inflation
18:11 – The Energy Stocks Heat Map
20:40 – The Iran Situation
23:03
MFS Collapses Adding To Private Credit Woes
2026-03-02
In our February 3rd Commentary, we discussed the recent woes negatively impacting private credit funds. The concerns began last year with the bankruptcies of Tricolor and First Brands and continue to mount, as evidenced by the share prices of some private credit managers shown below. Adding to market worries is fresh news of a $1.3 …
Hindenburg Alarm: Another Rotation Or Worse?
2026-02-26
In early November, we sounded the alarm about a recent Hindenburg Omen. Per the Commentary’s summary: Bottom line: market breadth is horrendous and will likely lead to a rotation favoring out-of-favor sectors and stocks. Thus, it’s not surprising that the Hindenburg Omen was triggered. If we continue to see more of these Omens, the threat …
Venezuela Leads Energy Stocks Out Of The Gate In 2026
2026-01-06
Venezuela holds 20% of the world’s proven oil reserves. Not only are they the largest, but as shown in the Statista graphic below, they hold approximately seven times that of the United States. Despite its large reserves, Venezuela has fallen well short of its ability to supply the world. US sanctions and the significant deterioration …
11-15-25 Why The Fed Is Easing Into Strength — And What It Means For Markets
2025-11-15
The Fed is preparing to cut rates just as an AI-driven boom accelerates.
In this short video, MIchael Lebowitz and I discuss why easing into strength is unusual, how it could stoke inflation, and what it means for the next phase of market growth.
📺Full episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-YZaHtreohI
Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
9-26-25 College Planning 2025 – FAFSA, Scholarships, & Smart Funding Tips
2025-09-26
College planning season is here — and the last quarter of 2025 brings critical deadlines for students and parents. Jonathan Penn and Sarah Buenger break down what you need to know about FAFSA, scholarships, and smart funding strategies for higher education.
🎓 Topics Covered:
Applications: Why applying to multiple in-state schools boosts negotiating power.
FAFSA 2025–26: Key deadlines, why it’s required (even if you don’t qualify for aid), and how it impacts merit-based scholarships.
Appeal Process: How a simple email to admissions could mean thousands in additional aid.
Scholarship Season: Deadlines, organization tips, and tools to stay ahead.
Policy Updates: Tuition freezes in Texas & Indiana, Supreme Court rulings on admissions, and new LOWER student and parent loan caps.
Size Matters: Can The Largest Stocks Continue To Lead?
2025-09-22
Does size matter? Since the Pandemic, and judged by the recent performance of the Magnificent Seven and mega-cap indexes, many investors would say it matters, likely claiming that the greater the size, the better the returns. Those with data going back decades, rather than years, would also agree that size matters. However, their conclusion would …
9/18/25 No Risk-free Path for the Fed
2025-09-18
The Federal Reserve cut rates on Wednesday, September 17, 2025 — but the path forward is anything but risk-free. Markets had already priced in much of the move, leaving investors to wonder if Powell’s guidance will calm volatility or spark fresh uncertainty.
Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz look at what the Fed’s latest decision means for stocks, bonds, and the economy.
Why Powell’s words may matter more than the rate cut itself.
The risks of inflation, slowing growth, and financial instability in the months ahead.
📈 Whether you’re an investor, trader, or just watching the markets, understanding the implications of Fed policy is critical.
0:19 – Something for Everyone from the Fed
2:16 – Markets Sell-off and Rally to Break-even
6:43 – The Fed’s "Risk Management" Move
11:54 – Is
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