by Lance Roberts
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| Most investors say they have a 10–15 year time horizon, but in reality, very few can tolerate the volatility and drawdowns that come with it. If a stock drops 30–50%, most people sell long before their “long-term” plan plays out. The key is to match your portfolio strategy to your actual psychology and behavior. Build positions and manage risk based on how long you realistically hold trades, not on an idealized time horizon. 📺Full episode: & Catch Lance daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow |
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Sanae Takaichi And The Yen Carry Trade
2026-02-10
In a blog last week titled Japan Is Normalizing: Risks To The Yen Carry Trade, we discussed Japan’s path to economic normalization and how it might affect a great source of global liquidity, the yen carry trade. A week after publishing the article, Japan had a stunning election. As a result, its new Prime Minister, …
2-6-26 This Inflation Signal Says “Trouble in Paradise”
2026-02-06
Real-time inflation (Truflation) data is signaling sub-1% inflation, and historically CPI and PCE tend to follow it lower with a short lag. That puts pressure on hawkish policy narratives.
At the same time, consumer spending is staying elevated while incomes are flat and savings have fallen to stressed levels.
In this short video, Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz discuss the risk of a growing disconnect between the reflation narrative and the true health of the economy, pointing to potential downside ahead.
📺Full episode: _IPrDUg
Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
Eli Lilly Shares Boosted BY GLP-1s
2026-02-05
On Wednesday, Eli Lilly, the largest holding (15%) in XLV, the State Street healthcare sector ETF, reported earnings well above expectations, and its shares initially rose by 10%. Its fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of $7.54 easily beat the consensus estimate of $6.98. Further boosting Eli Lilly shares, its revenue surged 43% to $19.29 billion, almost $1.5 …
1-1-26 2026 Market Outlook: Bullish Case, Bear Risks & Strategy
2025-12-17
As we begin the new year, this New Year’s Day market outlook takes a balanced, risk-aware look at what 2026 may hold for investors. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff examine the bullish case for markets, including the macro and technical backdrops supporting higher prices, while also addressing the growing risks beneath the surface—particularly stress in credit markets and the potential for lower long-term returns.
The discussion explores how elevated valuations, tighter financial conditions, and shifting economic dynamics could impact portfolio outcomes in the year ahead. We also outline practical investment strategies for 2026, including why cash can provide valuable optionality during periods of volatility and uncertainty.
Additional topics include a preview of the 2026 Economic Summit,
10-31-25 Why Risk Tolerance Questionnaires Don’t Work
2025-10-31
Most investors have filled out a risk tolerance questionnaire—but does it really measure how you’ll behave when markets crash? Richard Rosso & Jonathan McCarty break down why traditional risk tolerance tools fail to predict investor behavior, how emotions override risk profiles, and why time horizons, liquidity needs, and cash flow matter far more than a few survey questions.
Understand risk before markets remind you what it really feels like.
[NOTE: Use hashtags only on Substack posts!]
#FinancialPlanning #RiskManagement #InvestorBehavior #WealthStrategy #RIAAdvisors
Gold Myths Luring Investors Into Risk
2025-10-31
In case you haven’t heard, precious metals, particularly gold, have risen sharply this year. Of course, whenever any asset class experiences a more speculative melt-up, investors are quick to rationalize why “this time is different.” In stocks, it is about “artificial intelligence” and “data centers.” The cryptocurrency community believes all fiat currencies will fail and …
Beyond Meat Surges: Another Meme Ponzi?
2025-10-23
In August 2025, Beyond Meat (BYND), a plant-based meat producer, took to social media to call reports of its bankruptcy “unequivocally false”. Despite the assurances, the company was floundering, and bankruptcy was a possibility. The company has significant liabilities and has lost money every year since its IPO. Adding to their woes, sales peaked in …
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