by Lance Roberts
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| Headlines don’t move markets—real buying and selling do. In this short video, Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz I discuss why media narratives are often just after-the-fact explanations that ignore actual facts, like strong Treasury auctions and foreign buying, and why focusing on market structure and demand matters more than reacting to the news. 📺Full episode: Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow |
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1-8-26 2026 Market Forecasts: Why Wall Street Gets It Wrong
2026-01-08
Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explain why year-ahead market forecasts are largely an exercise in false precision. Instead of offering a price target with zero confidence, we walk through the key forces that are likely to shape markets in 2026—including stretched valuations, liquidity injections disguised as “reserve management,” the Federal Reserve leadership transition, midterm elections, fiscal uncertainty, AI-driven capital spending, tariffs, geopolitics, and rising sovereign debt risks.
We also examine historical market behavior to provide perspective on drawdowns, winning streaks, and why valuations are a poor short-term timing tool but an excellent long-term risk signal. Finally, we discuss why flexibility, discipline, and risk management matter far more than guessing an index
Fed Challenges: Bill Dudley’s Take On 2026
2026-01-08
Bill Dudley, a respected economist and President of the New York Fed during the Financial Crisis, penned a Bloomberg editorial outlining six challenges facing the Fed in 2026. Given his deep background in economics and intimate knowledge of the Fed, it’s worth providing a brief summary of his views. Independence is at the top of …
1-6-26 The Most Dangerous Risk Is The One No One Sees
2026-01-06
Markets don’t crash on risks everyone is watching—they’re already priced in and hedged.
In this Short video, Lance Roberts explains why the real danger is an unexpected shock that forces earnings lower and triggers a rapid repricing of valuations.
📺Full episode: -Z7mJI
Catch Lance daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
Data Center Debt: Can Oracle Hang With The Big Boys?
2025-11-13
Meta and Google recently borrowed a combined $55 billion in the corporate bond market. As we share below, this debt represents a new source of funding for data center expansion. Further, as shown in orange, Oracle tapped the private market for loans to secure the capital needed to sustain AI innovation and the related data …
11-12-25 December Rate Cut Back in Play
2025-11-12
Soft jobs data and falling rents point to weaker inflation ahead, setting the stage for a potential Fed rate cut in December.
In this short video, I explain why this slowdown may be exactly what the market needs to keep the rally alive.
📺Full episode:
Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
Equity Fund Outflows Soar: Blip or Warning?
2025-09-23
Our friend Jim Colquitt, in his Weekly Chart Review, brought to our attention a large and irregular outflow from equity funds last week. He cites a Reuters article stating that investors withdrew $43 billion from US equity funds last week. That was the largest outflow since December 2024. The graph below shows that equity fund …
9/18/25 The Real Reason The Market Popped After the Fed Cut
2025-09-18
The Fed cut rates as expected, but Powell admitted uncertainty and insisted policy is still "restrictive."
@michaellebowitz and I discuss why markets see it as "accommodative" and are rallying on that perception, with $INTC & $NVDA helping big.
#FedRateCut #StockMarketRally #PowellSpeech #NvidiaStocks #InterestRates
Retail Data Sends A Warning
2025-07-26
🔎 At a Glance 💬 Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you’d like us to cover in a future newsletter? 📩 Email: [email protected]🐦 Follow & DM on X: @LanceRoberts📰 Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next week’s issue! 🏛️ …
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