10-22-24 Is the Stock Market Party Over?

2024-10-10

All was not hunky-dory in the recent Fed meeting, as the FOMC Meeting minutes reveal a split-decision on lowering rates by 50-bps vs 25-bps. Meanwhile, in the markets, the S&P is having its Best Year Ever since the "turn of the century." The current, rising wedge is both a bullish and bearish sign; CPI numbers will be today’s trigger. Volatility in the markets, thanks to uncertainty over presidential election outcome, Israel-Iran war effect on oil prices, etc. The VIX doesn’t always tell you everything. We’re at the beginning of a Fed-easing campaign; the Hawkish-Dovish Fed has a bipolar problem. A look at the China trade syndrome, and rush of investment in Chinese tech sector: When everyone’s on the same side of the boat, better get to the other side. We’ve become Pavlov’s dogs, chasing

2024-10-08

When most people hear the word “risk,” they think about wild market swings, scary headlines, and losing money overnight, but Howard Marks, Co-Chairman and Co-Founder of Oaktree Capital Management, takes a different approach. In his new video series How to Think About Risk, Marks digs deep into what risk is and how investors should handle it. Spoiler alert: It’s not just about volatility.

The CFA Institute recently summarized the video stream, but I wanted to elaborate on some of Howard Mark’s views.

Let’s break down some key lessons from Marks that can help you rethink your investing approach to risk.

Risk Isn’t Just Volatility

One of the biggest takeaways from Marks’ series is the idea that risk and volatility aren’t the same thing. For years, many investors (and academics)

2024-10-07

Investing in mortgage companies like Annaly could be a smart move as interest rates decrease. Get a 13% yield while waiting for potential growth! 📈 #FinanceTips #Investing #Annaly

Watch the entire show here: https://cstu.io/6704b3

YouTube channel = @ TheRealInvestmentShow

2024-08-08

Economic Reports affected by Hurricanes Beryl & Debbie; market sell off continues. Inflationary data is still there; unwinding of Yen Carry Trade continues w/volatility. Lance recites a brief history of market crashes, causes & effects. The market correction actually started in July at peak; trapped-longs sold into market rally as exuberance reverses. Earnings Season has delivered a mixed back; 92% of companies have reported, opening buy back windows for business. Consumer sentiment feedback loop affects Fed decision-making; what the Yen Carry Trade does for market moods. The differential in interest rates between the Yen & the Dollar is shrinking. The Fed is reactive…and trapped. Lance & Michael discuss the Sahm Rule recession indicator: This time may be different. Recessions are

2024-08-06

On Monday morning, investors woke up to plunging stock markets as the “Yen Carry Trade” blew up. While media headlines suggested the sell-off was due to fears of a recession, slowing employment growth, or fears over Israel and Iran, such is not the case.

2024-08-05

August begins with weaker employment and the Fed hinting at the possiblity of a 1/2% rate cut; The Japanese Carry Trade blos up: What is it and why does it matter? Look for the largest spike in volatility since the pandemic. Be careful amid emotional headlines; Markets have already been over sold and now need to bounce. Anything that is a risk assett will be affected; bonds are over bought: Today is a day to do nothing. Lance’s movie reviwe of Deadpool & Wolverine: Not for the faint of heart or kids. Risks to the market from an exogenous, unexpected event, a consequence of the collapse of the Carryt Trade. What will happen when the Fed cuts rates? When the Yield Curve inversion reverses, get ready for Recession. Lance answers YouTube chat questions: Everything risk-related will be douns;

2024-05-27

We are closed Monday (5/27) in honor of those Americans who gave the last, full measure to defend our freedoms. Remember the fallen. We’ll be back Tuesday with market. investing, and economic info for you!
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2024-05-22

Remember the.com crash? Many young investors today never experienced a financial crisis like 2008. It’s important to learn from history to navigate market uncertainties. #financialcrisis #investing

The dot-com crash was a pivotal moment in financial history, but its impact is often forgotten. Join Lance Roberts as he revisits this era and discusses its relevance to today’s market.
– The gradual decline of the dot-com crash
– Opportunities for risk reduction during the crash
– The long duration of the market downturn
– The lack of recession experience among modern investors
– The post-2008 market perception by new traders and writers

➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts:
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757

➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a