Lance Roberts
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| Markets swing between hype and panic, and investors often get trapped by both. When prices rise, narratives justify overpaying; when prices collapse, fear convinces people assets are going to zero. In reality, markets rarely move in extremes forever. The best opportunities tend to appear when fear is highest, not when optimism is loudest, which is why disciplined, fundamentals-focused investors look for value during selloffs rather than chasing excitement at the top. 📺Full episode: -g Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow |
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1-22-26 What Kevin Warsh Brings to the Fed
2026-01-22
Betting markets are increasingly pointing to Kevin Warsh as a potential successor to Jerome Powell, with Kevin Hassett expected to remain in his White House role under Donald Trump. Which begs the question: What would a Warsh-led Federal Reserve actually bring to markets?
Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explore the possibilities of a Warsh Fed: Would such likely be more tolerant of volatility, rely less on emergency interventions, and place greater emphasis on valuation, fundamentals, and disciplined policy rules?
0:00 INTRO
0:18 – Earnings, Economics, & Imminent Greenland Deal
2:48 – Markets Break Trendline – Look for Volatility
8:22 – Greenland, Denmark, & Danish Bonds
15:10 – What the Media Doesn’t Say About Bond Auctions
17:14 – Texas Winter & Nat Gas Futures
20:32 – Warsh vs
2025-12-03
Starting in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, a profound change to the Fed’s liquidity-providing role in the capital markets was underway. We can sum up the Fed regime change with a popular quip: The Fed has shifted from lender of last resort to the lender of only resort! In our articles QE Is …
12-1-25 A Perfect Year-End Rally Setup But With One Big Warning
2025-12-01
Markets $SPX $NDX followed classic seasonality with a November dip that set up a potential year-end rally. But after six straight monthly gains, the odds of a pullback are rising.
In this short video, I explain why seasonality supports upside, but this streak makes risk management more important than ever.
HSBC Casts Doubt On OpenAI’s Future
2025-12-01
Per the Financial Times (LINK), HSBC has serious doubts about OpenAI’s financial wherewithal. The following bullet points outline HSBC’s assumptions, which highlight the challenging financial path OpenAI faces. The graphic below from the article shows that HSBC expects OpenAI to run a massive operating loss in the year 2030. Accordingly, they have serious concerns about …
10-8-25 Markets, Money & Mindset: Live Q&A with Lance Roberts
2025-10-08
JJoin Lance Roberts for a live open Q&A on markets, money, and investing.
We’ll cover what’s on your mind—from market melt-ups and Fed policy to portfolio positioning and economic risks. No scripts, no fluff—just real talk and real answers about what’s moving markets and shaping investor behavior.
0:19 – Markets are Absorbing Money
4:14 – Profit Taking in Bitcoin
9:15 – YouTube Poll – The #1 Thing on Your Mind About Markets
10:09 – How Do You Invest Right Now?
12:23 – Liquidity is King
18:05 – You WILL Mind a 5% Down Market
20:39 – #1 Concern – Liquidity in Markets
27:37 – The Problem w Markets is Narratives
29:34 – Economic Data Not Dramatically Changing
33:06 – The AI Story, Tesla Robots, & Productivity
35:48 – Employees Are Not Fun
39:32 – Coming Attractions – Daniel LaCalle
2025-10-08
It’s odd to consider, but a recession could flip our bullish outlook on bonds to bearish. It’s unusual because typically, inflation drops during a recession, leading to lower yields and higher bond prices. While we believe that if an economic downturn or recession occurs soon, the immediate effect on bonds will be favorable. However, the …
2025-08-13
How was the weather yesterday in the United States? You could answer by citing an average temperature or precipitation level. However, doing so would severely misrepresent the weather in many parts of the country. Similarly, the typical response to “What did the market do today?” is often to quote the change in the S&P 500 …
A 50 BPS Rate Cut Is Not Out Of The Question
2025-08-12
As we share below, the Fed Funds futures market is 86.5% confident the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps in September. However, they assign a zero percent chance that the Fed cuts by 50 bps. Powell’s trepidation to cut rates leaves traders unwilling to consider that anything more than 25bps is possible. We argue …
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