Permanent Job Losers: A Worrying Facet Of Today’s Economy
2025-11-24
Given the two-month delay, Thursday’s BLS employment report on September labor market conditions was not nearly as pertinent as the BLS data typically is. Despite it being old news, it is worth sharing that the number of jobs increased by 119k, but the unemployment rate ticked up from 4.3% to 4.4%. The markets didn’t seem …
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11-26-25 Confidence, Chaos, and The K-Shaped Economy
2025-11-19
Peter Atwater, one of the leading voices on confidence-driven behavior in markets and society, joins Lance Roberts to share how certainty, control, and herd mentality shape every major trend investors face today.
Lance and Peter discuss The Confidence Map, why people behave differently when they’re in the “comfort zone” versus the “stress center,” and how these shifts explain the rise of speculative investing, the bifurcated K-shaped economy, and the growing disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street.
#PeterAtwater #BehavioralFinance #KShapedEconomy #InvestorPsychology #AIandMarkets
Full Market Cycles: Half Bull and Half Bear
2025-11-17
Last week, we discussed the importance of “math” as it relates to valuations and noted the importance of understanding “full market cycles.” To wit: “The math on forward return expectations, given current valuation levels, does not hold up. The assumption that valuations can fall without the price of the markets being negatively impacted is also grossly flawed. …
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