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| Markets are priced for a perfect reflation outcome after three years of big gains. Everyone expects strong growth, falling inflation, and rate cuts at the same time. In this Short video, Lance Roberts argues why these expectations may be setting investors up for disappointment. 📺Full episode: Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow |
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12-10-25 Market Sloppiness, Bitcoin Signals & Fed Week: Live Q&A
2025-12-10
It’s Fed Day, and today’s Live Q&A covers what investors should expect as markets position around the announcement, why volatility may pick up afterward, and how this week’s action shapes the potential for a Santa Claus Rally. We also discuss whether the Fed has stepped back from its inflation mandate, what that means for long bonds, and how Treasury supply-and-demand dynamics factor into portfolio risk.
Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff review the growth outlook for the AI sector, the power-cost assumptions built into datacenter models, the economic effects of the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” and the $125 billion in tariff revenue collected this year—along with what tariffs really contribute to inflation. Additional topics include how to read 2x–3x standard deviations using Bollinger Band
2025-12-10
Michael Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager at Simplify Asset Management, wrote a provocative Substack essay, Part 1: My Life Is A Lie, that is sparking a debate among economists and raising awareness of the affordability crisis. It’s not just the wonky economists debating the merits of his article; The Washington Post, CNN (News Central), …
Natural Gas Prices: Weather, Data Centers And LNG
2025-12-04
As we share below, courtesy of FinViz, natural gas prices have risen by over 50% since late October. Moreover, natural gas prices, approaching $5, are at three-year highs. The primary cause of the recent price surge is increased heating demand driven by colder-than-expected winter weather, which is resulting in greater-than-average inventory draws. Per the EIA, …
2025-08-27
In his 1687 book, Philosophiae Naturalis Principia Mathematica, Sir Isaac Newton defined momentum as the product of mass and velocity, or p = m * v. The reason we begin with a physics lesson is that momentum strategies are very popular, and Isaac Newton’s famous formula can teach us a lot about financial asset momentum. …
Balance Of Risks Allows Powell To Pivot
2025-08-25
“Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.” That key line from Chairman Powell’s opening speech at the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium effectively summarizes Powell’s view on monetary policy. Simply, the change in the balance of risks since the BLS jobs revisions …
Market Valuations Don’t Matter…Until They Do
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🔎 At a Glance 💬 Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you’d like us to cover in a future newsletter? 📩 Email: [email protected]🐦 Follow & DM on X: @LanceRoberts📰 Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next week’s issue! 🏛️ …
US Economy: Recent Data Suggests Risk To Earnings
2025-08-22
The latest economic data suggests the US economy is decelerating. That means growth is slowing, jobs are shrinking, and households are spending less. As we showed in a recent #BullBearReport, economic growth, inflation, and personal consumption are trending lower. Unsurprisingly, with job growth weakening, consumer sentiment also took a hit in the latest report, with …
8-20-25 The Rest of the World Must See Our Economic Future as Blindingly Bright
2025-08-20
Our conversation with Real Clear Markets Editor, John Tamny, on the economic health of the US as evidenced by $37-Trillion in debt the rest of the world continues to clamor to buy.
Watch the entire interview on our YouTube channel:
Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w John Tamny, Editor/Real Clear Markets
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow
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https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757
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