Success IS NOT What you Think it Will Be

2025-07-28

When great powers rise throughout history, they generally do so for the same reasons. These successful new orders are typically started by powerful revolutionary leaders doing four things:

1) Winning power by gaining more support than their opposition
2) Consolidating power by converting, weakening, or eliminating that opposition
3) Establishing systems and institutions that make the country work well
4) Creating systems that pick successors well over several generations

#principles #raydalio #history #empire

2025-07-14

I’m very happy to learn that my new book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle was selected by @barnesandnoble as one of their Best Business Books of the year.

The book conveys what I’ve learned over the past 50 years as a macro investor about the mechanics of how countries go broke — and what that means for the US today.

I hope you’ll read it and learn about it so that you understand what we’re dealing with, and what you can do to navigate the interesting times ahead.

2025-06-26

It’s critical that we bring our deficits down — and soon.

Since one man’s debts are another man’s assets, debt problems pass through the system very quickly.

When there’s a lot of debt, like there is today, it has to be sold — and we’re now at a point where there aren’t enough buyers for that debt.

Historically, when that happens, bad things follow. So we need to get this problem under control and we need to do it fast.

2025-06-20

The Fed is in a very difficult position as it tries to balance the benefits of cutting interest rates with maintaining the value of money.

Right now, there is a great deal of uncertainty throughout the economy, along with a deterioration in sentiment.

Combine that with political pressures and the realities of our upcoming debt service payments, and you have this value of money conflict.

So changes in the monetary policy — especially if the cut is too aggressive — could lead to a period of great concern.

My advice: Watch the yield curve. If you see long rates rising alongside downward movement in the dollar and rises in gold, you’ll know there’s a movement out of bonds. Because the value of money matters a lot.

#raydalio #howcountriesgobroke #economics #markets

2025-06-16

The US is approaching the end of the long-term debt cycle. There are 3 levers we can pull to bring the deficit down to ~3% of GDP and mitigate our debt burdens: 1) reducing spending, 2) increasing taxes, and 3) lowering interest rates.

While we need to consider each of these levers, I recently discussed why reducing interest rates will ultimately have the greatest impact on the budget deficit with @the_IMF.

You can learn more about my proposed 3% 3-part solution to the US debt crisis in my new book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle, available now wherever books are sold.

#principles #howcountriesgobroke #economics