Five Forces Shaping America’s Future

2026-02-25

Last week, I shared a chapter from my 2021 book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order that details the classic signs to watch for as the world geopolitical order breaks down in a classic progression of events that I call the "Big Cycle." By knowing what this classic process looks like and then comparing it with what is happening, one can better understand what is happening and what might happen. The article was very popular, getting more than 75 million views, and a number of people asked what it all meant for investing.

Because so many people asked, I am now passing along to you the book’s next chapter, "Investing in Light of the Big Cycle." I think that it gives a good perspective on investing at this time. You can read the full chapter here:

2026-01-28

The income and wealth gap in the US are the highest they’ve been in almost 100 years. It’s something that need to be addressed before it creates even more extreme internal conflicts.

However, I worry about the practical impacts of wealth taxes on the economic system. And that’s because there’s a difference between wealth and money.

It’s all about the mechanics. Bubbles burst when there’s a need for money to generate cash flow. Wealth taxes would create a situation where people who are wealthy on paper need to sell assets to cover their liabilities. And that can quickly create a dynamic that leads to a broader issue.

It’s something to watch in the coming years.

#wealthtaxes #wef26

2025-12-01

In 1979, I was so broke that I had to borrow $4,000 from my Dad to help take care of my family.

I had calculated that American banks had lent much more money to foreign countries than they would be able to pay back, and anticipated an imminent debt crisis.

But I couldn’t have been more wrong. I didn’t fully understand the impacts of quantitative easing, and so I lost money for myself and I lost money for my clients.

Looking back, it was the most painful experience I could imagine — but it was also the best thing that ever happened to me, because it taught me humility.

2025-11-06

History shows us that having too much debt during an economic downturn leads to a classic, self-reinforcing cycle where:

1) The empire can no longer borrow the money to repay its debts
2) It prints a lot of new money, which devalues the currency and raises inflation
3) Living standards decline, leading to the rise of political extremism
4) Turbulent economic conditions undermine productivity and there is conflict about how to divide the shrinking resources
5) Populist leaders emerge pledging to take control and bring about order

2025-11-05

As an investor, you don’t want to concentrate your bets — you want diversification, so you’re protected in different economic environments. That’s why alternative assets like gold are so valuable in balancing your portfolio. @TheProfGPod

2025-11-03

My first real job was caddying, and it changed my life.

It was the 1960s, and the people I was caddying for were always talking about the stock market.

So, I took my caddying money and bought Northeast Airlines because it was the only company I had heard of that was selling for less than $5 a share.

Little did I know, but the stock was so cheap because they were about to go broke. But I got lucky and they got acquired, so I tripled my money.

And just like that, I was hooked.

2025-10-10

One of my principles is that if you’re worried, you don’t need to worry — and if you’re not worried, you need to worry.

That’s because worrying about what can go wrong will protect you and not worrying about what can go wrong will leave you exposed.

2025-10-08

The way I see it, any serious effort to solve the debt crisis will likely come too late.

It’s a timing issue. 2026 is a midterm election year — politicians won’t want to take the painful steps needed to improve our economic picture: cutting spending, raising taxes, and the like.

Any sort of bipartisan effort that comes after will both take time and be unlikely to be effective, because those commissions generally don’t work very well in practice.

That’s what it looks like to me. I’m curious to hear if you see things similarly.

@TheProfGPod

You can watch the full conversation here: _JLSAat94?si=AIGAM6BTiw7ZWCCC