Tag Archive: win-thin

Some Thoughts on Turkey

2016-07-18

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2016-07-18

INTRODUCTION After last Friday’s failed coup attempt in Turkey, a measure of calm has returned to global markets. We did not think Turkish developments have wide-reaching implications for EM assets, but we do remain very negative on Turkish assets in the wake of the coup and ongoing political uncertainty.

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2016-07-18

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2016-07-18

EM ended last week on a soft note, due in large part to the attempted coup in Turkey. Weakness in the lira spilled over into wider EM weakness in thin Friday afternoon market conditions. The situation in Turkey has calmed, and so EM may gain some limited traction this week. However, that calm will likely be very fragile and so we retain a defensive posture with regards to EM.

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2016-07-08

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2016-07-08

In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, Hungary (+3.0%), UAE (+2.0%), and Qatar (+0.7%) have outperformed this week, while Mexico (-3.4%), South Africa (-2.1%), and Colombia (-1.7%) have underperformed. To put this in better context, MSCI EM fell -1.2% this week while MSCI DM fell -0.3%. In the EM local currency bond space, the Philippines (10-year yield -22 bp), Singapore (-12 bp), and Brazil (-11 bp) have outperformed this week, while Russia...

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Emerging Markets: Preview for the Week Ahead

2016-07-04

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2016-07-04

EM and risk recovered nicely from the Brexit turmoil last week. Yet we think markets are getting too carried away with the "low rates forever" theme and are likely underestimating the capability of the Fed to tighten before 2018. This Friday, the June jobs data could spark a shift in sentiment with a strong reading. Consensus is currently 175k jobs created, up from 38k in May.

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