Tag Archive: #USD

FX Daily, February 27: Asia Stumbles, Europe Recovers, Waiting for Trump

2017-02-27

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2017-02-27

chess
The late recovery in US equities before the weekend did little good for Asian markets. Nearly all the Asian equity markets moved lower, led by the 1.0% decline in Japan's Topix. It was the third successive loss for the Topix, which is the long losing streak of the year so far. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.6%, further pushing it off the 17-month high seen last week.

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FX Weekly Preview: Macroeconomics and Psychology

2017-02-27

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2017-02-27

There is a broad consensus around the macroeconomic picture. The headwinds slowing the US economy in H1 16 have eased, and above trend growth in H2 16 appears to be carrying into 2017. Q4 16 GDP is expected to be revised to 2.1% up from 1.8%. Many economists appear to accept that a good part, though not all, of the decline in the estimated trend growth in the US, is a function of demographic considerations.

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FX Daily, February 24: Anxiety? What Anxiety?

2017-02-24

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2017-02-24

The US dollar is finishing the week on a mixed note in choppy activity in narrow ranges. It is an apt way to finish this week, which has been largely directionless as investors wait for fresh incentives, and are especially looking toward Trump's speech to a joint session of Congress next week.

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FX Daily, February 23: Dollar Chops About, as “Fairly Soon” Does not Mean mid-March

2017-02-23

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2017-02-23

FX Performance February 23 2017 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar is confined to narrow ranges today within yesterday's ranges. Equity markets posted small gains in Asia and have an upside bias in Europe. Core bond yields are softer, and today this includes France, but peripheral European 10-year benchmark yields are 3-6 bp firmer. Italian bonds are the poorest performer, while the 10-year Dutch bond yields are off the most (3.2 bp to 0.56%) despite the looming election.

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FX Daily, February 22: Euro Meltdown Continues

2017-02-22

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2017-02-22

FX Performance February 22 2017 Movers and Shakers
February has been cruel to the euro. Of the sixteen sessions this month, counting today, the euro has risen in four, and two of those were last week. Its new four-day slide pushed it below $1.05 for the first time in six weeks as European markets were opening. The $1.0560 area that was broken yesterday, and provided a cap today is 61.8% retracement objective of last month's rally.

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FX Daily, February 21: Dollar Bounces Back

2017-02-21

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2017-02-21

FX Performance February 21 2017 Movers and Shakers
Some profit-taking in the middle of last week pushed the dollar lower and gave rise in some quarters that the run was over. However, the greenback has come back the bid. It is gaining against all the major currencies today and most of the emerging market currencies.

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Dollar Index: The Chart Everyone is Talking About

2017-02-21

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2017-02-21

Many are discussing a possible head-and-shoulders pattern in the Dollar Index. We are skeptical as other technical signals do not confirm. We recognize scope for disappointment over the border tax and the next batch of employment data, but European politics is the present driver and may not be alleviated soon.

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FX Daily, February 20: Marking Time on Monday

2017-02-20

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2017-02-20

FX Performance February 20 2017 Movers and Shakers
US markets are closed for the Presidents' Day holiday, but it hasn't prevented its pre-weekend gains giving a bullish tone to global equities. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ recovered from early weakness to close at new record levels before the weekend. Global equity markets are following suit today.

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FX Weekly Preview: Number One Rule of the Game is Stay in the Game

2017-02-20

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2017-02-20

Light economic calendar in the week ahead, but anticipation of US tax reform may underpin dollar and equities. European politics are in flux (France, Italy, Greece) and this may see spreads widen over Germany. Russia's outlook was upgraded by Moody's before the weekend, and China has announced no coal imports this year from North Korea. Brazil is expected to cut Selic by 75 bps.

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The Consensus Narrative does not Appreciate the Resilience of the System

2017-02-18

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2017-02-18

resilience
The system of checks and balances is working. Populism-nationalism is not sweeping across the world. Even in US and UK, populist agenda was appropriated by the main-center right party. The attack on the body politics is activating the immune system in ways that the consensus narrative does not recognize.

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FX Daily, February 16: Corrective Forces Emerge, Tempering the Dollar’s Rally

2017-02-16

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2017-02-16

FX Performance, February 16 2017 Movers and Shakers
The Dollar Index had moved higher for ten consecutive sessions before reversing yesterday's gains to close lower. Yesterday and today's losses have seen the Dollar Index retrace 38.2% of the advance since February 2. That retracement objective was near 100.80. The 50% retracement is found near 100.50 and the 61.8% retracement by 100.20.

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FX Daily, February 15: Yellen Helps the Dollar Extend Streak

2017-02-15

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2017-02-15

The Dollar Index's ten-day rally was at risk yesterday, but Yellen's reiteration of the commitment to continue to lift rates gradually helped extend the streak to eleven sessions.This surpassed the streak around the election (November 7-November 18). With today's gains, it may draw closer to what appears to be the long streak, 14 sessions between April 30, 2012 and May 17.

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Lies, Damn Lies, and Taxes

2017-02-15

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2017-02-15

taxes
President Trump hinted at the end of last week that the Administration's tax proposals would be aired in the next two or three weeks. This seems to be a signal of its inclusion in his address to both houses of Congress on February 28. This is not quite a State of the Union speech, but similar and precisely what Obama did in February 2009.

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FX Daily, February 14: Markets Showing Little Love on Valentines

2017-02-14

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2017-02-14

EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, February 14
Corrective pressures are gripping the major capital markets today.The Dollar Index's nine-day advancing streak is being threatened by the position adjustment ahead of Yellen's testimony later today. Despite record high closes in the main US equity markets yesterday, Asia could not follow suit. It tried to initially, and recorded new highs since July 2015, but sellers emerged and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index closed marginally lower on the lows of the...

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What is Good for the Dollar is Bad for Gold

2017-02-14

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2017-02-14

The Dollar Index is powering ahead, moving higher for the eighth consecutive session. Over the past 100 sessions, gold and the Dollar Index move in the opposite direction more than 90% of the time. The technical condition of gold is deteriorating.

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FX Daily, February 13: Quiet Start of Busy Week

2017-02-13

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2017-02-13

With inflation and growth reports due out this week and Federal Reserve Chair Yellen's testimony before Congress, it promises to be a busy week for investors. However, the week has begun off fairly quietly, while the recent rally in equities continues.

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FX Weekly Preview: Yellen’s Path Cleared by Trump’s Moderation

2017-02-13

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2017-02-13

Trump has moderated in several areas, he is being checked in others, and less impactful in others. This will underscore the focus on Yellen's testimony this week. At same time, many will be reluctant to short the dollar ahead of the tax reform plans that may be unveiled in Trump's upcoming speech to Congress.

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FX Daily, February 10: US Dollar Holding on to Week’s Gains

2017-02-10

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2017-02-10

The US dollar is about 12 hours away from gaining against all the major currencies this week. The main talking points today remain Trump-centric. The US dollar is mixed as European trading gets underway. Of note the dollar is continuing to gain on the yen. The yen is off 0.4%, which is nearly half the week's decline. The Aussie is the strongest on the day, up about 0.2% to trim the week's loss to about 0.45%.

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Cool Video: Bearish Case for Euro and Prospect of Currency Wars

2017-02-10

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2017-02-10

Still in London as this part of the business trip is winding down. I had the privilege of going over to the Bloomberg office today and spoke with Vonnie Quinn and Mark Burton about the euro's outlook and whether the US should have a strong or weak dollar.

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