Tag Archive: U.S. Treasuries

Falling Interest Rates

Amassing Unproductive Debt.Last week, we discussed the marginal productivity of debt. This is how much each newly-borrowed dollar adds to GDP. And ever since the interest rate began its falling trend in 1981, marginal productivity of debt has tightly correlated with interest. The lower the interest rate, the less productive additional borrowing has in fact become.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 23/10/2017 – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD

USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Yawn

When I wrote the update two weeks ago I said that we might be nearing the point of maximum optimism. Apparently, there is another gear for optimism in this market as stocks have just continued to slowly but surely reach for the sky.

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Is This The Best Way To Bet On The Fed Losing Control Of The Bond Market?

Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog, Lately, one of my biggest duds of a call has been for the yield curve to steepen. Sure, I have all sorts of fancy reasons why it should steepen, but reality glares back at me in black and white on my P&L run. Sometimes fighting with the market is an exercise in futility.

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The Gold-Backed-Oil-Yuan Futures Contract Myth

On September 1, 2017, the Nikkei Asian Review published an article titled, “China sees new world order with oil benchmark backed by gold”, written by Damon Evans. Just below the headline in the introduction it states, “China is expected shortly to launch a crude oil futures contract priced in yuan and convertible into gold in what analysts say could be a game-changer for the industry”. Not long after the Nikkei piece was released ‘the story’ was...

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 09/10/2017 – EURJPY, EURAUD, USDCHF, GOLD

EURJPY, EURAUD, USDCHF, GOLD features

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Federal Reserve President Kashkari’s Masterful Distractions

The True Believer.How is it that seemingly intelligent people, of apparent sound mind and rational thought, can stray so far off the beam? How come there are certain professions that reward their practitioners for their failures? The central banking and monetary policy vocation rings the bell on both accounts. Today we offer a brief case study in this regard.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Maximum Optimism?

The economic reports of the last two weeks were generally of a more positive tone. The majority of reports were better than expected although it must be noted that many of those reports were of the sentiment variety, reflecting optimism about the future that may or may not prove warranted. Markets have certainly responded to the dreams of tax reform dancing in investors’ heads with US stock markets providing a steady stream of all time highs, bond...

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Dollar & Stocks Jump; Bonds & Bullion Dump In Lowest Volatility September Ever

It has now been 318 trading days since the S&P 500 suffered a 5% drawdown - the 4th-longest streak since 1928... So everything is awesome...BUT...US 'hard' economic data has not been this weak (and seen the biggest drop) since Feb 2009...Q3 Was a Roller-Coaster...Q3 was the 8th straight quarterly gain in a row for The Dow - the longest streak since Q3 1997.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 02/10/2017 – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD

USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD features

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It Was Collateral, Not That We Needed Any More Proof

Eleven days ago, we asked a question about Treasury bills and haircuts. Specifically, we wanted to know if the spike in the 4-week bill’s equivalent yield was enough to trigger haircut adjustments, and therefore disrupt the collateral chain downstream. Within two days of that move in bills, the GC market for UST 10s had gone insane.To be honest, it was a rhetorical exercise.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 25/09/2017 – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD

USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD features

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: As Good As It Gets

The incoming economic data hasn’t changed its tone all that much in the last several years. The US economy is growing but more slowly than it once did and we hope it does again. It is frustrating for economic bulls and bears, never fully satisfying either. Probably more important is the frustration of the average American, a dissatisfaction with the status quo that permeates the national debate. The housing bubble papered over the annoying lack of...

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Swimming The ‘Dollar’ Current (And Getting Nowhere)

The People’s Bank of China reported this week that its holdings of foreign assets fell slightly again in August 2017. Down about RMB 21 billion, almost identical to the RMB 22 billion decline in July, the pace of forex withdrawals is clearly much preferable to what China’s central bank experienced (intentionally or not) late last year at ten and even twenty times the rate of July and August.

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Global Asset Allocation Update: Step Away From The Portfolio

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. There are no changes to the portfolios this month. The post Fed meeting market reaction was a bit surprising in its intensity. The actions of the Fed were, to my mind anyway, pretty much as expected but apparently the algorithms that move markets today were singing from a different hymnal.

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COT Report: Black (Crude) and Blue (UST’s)

Over the past month, crude prices have been pinned in a range $50 to the high side and ~$46 at the low. In the futures market, the price of crude is usually set by the money managers (how net long they shift). As discussed before, there have been notable exceptions to this paradigm including some big ones this year.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Waiting For Irma

This update will be a bit shorter than usual. I’m in Miami awaiting Hurricane Irma. As of now, it looks like the eye of the storm will make landfall near Key West and continue west of us with the Naples/Ft. Myers area at risk. Or at least that’s the way it looks right now. I’ve done a lot of these storms though – I lost a house in Andrew in ’92 – and you never know what these things will do. We are secure in a house that survived Andrew with barely...

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FX Weekly Review, September 04 – 09: Draghi Dovish? EUR and USD falling against CHF

The euro rose close to CHF 1.15 with the ECB meeting this week. Finally traders realized that the ECB committed not to hike rates for a very long time. The ECB will review and take a first decision on the bond purchasing program this autumn. However, this program will come to an end only when the inflation target of 2% becomes in reach.

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FX Weekly Review, August 28 – September 02: The end of big euro rise?

For us, the sudden euro rise from 1.08 to 1.14 is an illusion, the euro will fall sooner or later again. Macron will not help the French economy and low core inflation will prevent that the ECB ends her bond buying program.

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Moscow Rules (for ‘dollars’)

In Ian Fleming’s 1959 spy novel Goldfinger, he makes mention of the Moscow Rules. These were rules-of-thumb for clandestine agents working during the Cold War in the Soviet capital, a notoriously difficult assignment. Among the quips included in the catalog were, “everyone is potentially under opposition control” and “do not harass the opposition.” Fleming’s book added another, “Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy...

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