Tag Archive: U.S. Services PMI

FX Daily, June 05: Dollar Remains on Back Foot

Overview: The Federal Reserve's patience never excluded a rate cut should conditions warrant. The acknowledgment of this without signaling a change its stance is being seized upon to justify aggressive pricing of rates. At the same time, there has some tempering of trade anxiety on the margin that is also constructive. Asia and European equities were pulled higher after the strongest rally in several months in the US. 

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FX Daily, June 5: Sterling Jumps Ahead, While US Equities Have Small Coattails

The British pound is benefiting from the stronger than expected service and composite PMI readings, which among other things are serving as a distraction from the government's seemingly tortured approach to Brexit and the sales of part of its stake in RBS for a GBP2 bln loss.  Financials are a drag on the FTSE 100 today (~-0.5% while other major bourses are higher).

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FX Daily, May 03: Respite to Dollar Short Squeeze

The Australian dollar is higher for a second session. It has been helped today by stronger than expected data in the form of a larger than expected March trade surplus (A$1.57 bln vs. expectations for A$865 mln) and building permits up more than twice as expected (2.6% vs. 1.0%). Today is the first session since April 19 that the Australian dollar has risen above the previous day's high. Initial resistance is seen near $0.7550 and then $0.7580.

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FX Daily, April 04: Trade Specificities Rattle Markets

Late yesterday, the US announced that specific tariffs and goods that would be targeted for intellectual property violations. China had warned of a commensurate response and earlier today made its announcement. This sent reverberations through the capital markets, driving down equities, corn and soybean prices (subject to Chinese tariffs). The US dollar was sold, especially against the yen, euro, and sterling.

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FX Daily, March 05: Italian Election Weighs on Italian Assets, but Little Systemic Risk Seen

The US dollar is narrowly mixed. The Japanese yen remains firm. The dollar appears stuck in a narrow range. Near JPY105.20 the seems to be some short-covering pressure in front of JPY105. On the top side, the greenback is encountering offers in front of JPY105.80. Sterling is firm against the dollar as it recovers against the euro. Before the weekend, the euro reached GBP0.8950, its best levels since last November. The euro is testing GBP0.8900...

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FX Daily, February 21: Markets Mark Time

The economic data stream is picking up, but there is an uneasy calm in the markets. It is almost as if the dramatic drop in stocks has left many with a sense of incompleteness, like waiting for another shoe to drop. The price action has not clarified the situation very much. The equity markets are stalling in front of important chart points as are yields and the dollar.

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FX Daily, February 05: Dollar Consolidates while Equity Rout may be Ebbing

Asian equity markets were weighed down by losses in the US markets ahead of the weekend. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was off 1.4% after the 1.0% pre-weekend loss. The Nikkei gapped lower and shed 2.5% and has fallen in eight of the past nine sessions. The notable exception in Asia was the Shanghai Composite. The 0.75% was led by the financial sector amid talk that a report later this week will show a strong jump in yuan lending from banks, which...

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FX Daily, January 24: Dollar Takes Another Leg Lower

North American session sold into the dollar's upticks and Asia followed suit, taking the greenback to new multi-year lows against the euro and sterling while pushing it below the JPY110 level for the first time since last September. US trade action has become latest element of the narrative the seeks to explain the dollar's slide and the decoupling of the greenback from interest rates.

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FX Daily, January 04: Greenback Continues to Consolidate Recent Losses

The US dollar is sporting a softer profile across the board, though remaining largely in the ranges seen over the past couple of sessions. At the same time, the news stream suggests that the global synchronized growth cycle strengthened late last year and is bound to carry over into the New Year.

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FX Daily, December 14: US Rates Bounce Back, but Dollar, Hardly

US interest rates have recovered the drop seen after the FOMC yesterday, but the dollar at best has been able to consolidate its losses and at worst, seen its losses extended. The Fed boosted its growth forecasts and lower unemployment forecasts. Yet its interest rate trajectory and inflation forecasts were largely unchanged. Yellen, as her recent predecessors have done, played down the implications of the flattening of the yield curve.

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FX Daily, December 05: Sterling Sold on Negotiating Snafu, Aussie Bounces on Retail Sales and RBA

The US dollar is confined to narrow ranges against the euro and yen, straddling unchanged levels in the Asian session and the European morning. The action in elsewhere. The British pound is the weakest of the majors, paring 0.4% against the greenback, though around $1.3425, it can hardly be considered weak. A month ago, sterling was a few cents lower. Still, its gains reflected two things: broader dollar weakness and optimism on Brexit talks.

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FX Daily Rates, November 24: Euro Continues to Push Higher

The euro is edging higher to trade at its best levels since the middle of last month. It is drawing closer to the $1.1880 area, which if overcome, could point to return to the year's high seen in early September near $1.2100. There is a combination of factors lifting the euro. The recent data, including yesterday's flash PMI, suggests that the regional economy is re-accelerating here in Q4.

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FX Daily, November 03: Dollar Firms Ahead of What is Expected to Be Strong US Jobs Data

The US dollar is firm but is not going anywhere quickly. The lack of fresh interest rate support and uncertainty over the US tax proposals, which the Brady, the Chair of the House Ways and Means Committee hopes to have a revised version out after the weekend so the committee work can begin on Monday.

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FX Daily, October 24: Dollar Treads Water as 10-year Yield Knocks on 2.40percent

The US dollar is narrowly mixed in mostly uneventful turnover in the foreign exchange market. There is a palpable sense of anticipation. Anticipation for the ECB meeting on Thursday, which is expected to see a six or nine-month extension of asset purchases at a pace half of the current 60 bln a month. Anticipation of the new Fed Chair, which President Trump says will be announced: "very, very soon."

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FX Daily, October 04: Consolidative Tone in FX Continues

The US dollar has a softer tone today, and it was that way even for the European PMI. The greenback eased further after the upside momentum faded yesterday. The heavier tone in Asia seemed spurred by a hedge fund manager's call that Minneapolis Fed President, and among the most dovish members of the FOMC, Kashkari would be the next Fed chair.

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FX Daily, September 22: Markets Limp into the Weekend

The cycle of sanctions, recriminations, and provocative actives continues as the Trump Administration leads a confrontation with North Korea. The US announced yesterday new round of sanctions on North Korea. Reuters reported that the PBOC has instructed its banks not to take on new North Korean clients and to begin unwinding existing relationships.

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FX Daily, September 06: Wake Me up when September Ends

The US dollar fell to new lows since mid-2015 against the Canadian dollar yesterday. It is flattish today as the market awaits the central bank's decision. We are concerned that given the strong performance and market positioning, a rate hike could spur "buy the rumor, sell the fact" activity. Alternatively, a disappointment if the Bank does not hike could also lead to some Canadian dollar sales.

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FX Daily, August 23: Consolidation in Capital Markets Conceals Coming Turbulence

A mixed US dollar will greet the North American participants today. It is softer against the euro and yen, but firmer against the dollar-bloc currencies. Among the emerging market currencies, the eastern and central European currencies are moving higher in the euro's draft.

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FX Daily, August 03: Dollar-Bloc Currencies Turning, but Euro Downticks Limited

The high-flying dollar-bloc currencies may be a preliminary sign market change. The US dollar is gaining on the Canadian dollar for the fourth consecutive session. It is probing resistance we identified in the $1.2620 area. The US dollar has not traded above its 20-day moving average since the Fed hiked rates on June 14. It is found today near CAD1.2625.

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